👋

Morning — coming in with markets still digesting a brutal weekend tape. Crypto, metals, and risk proxies all took a hit in thin liquidity, and the macro calendar stacks more catalysts into the day.

The setup is simple: expect volatility around US manufacturing data + front-end rates supply, while crypto trades heavy unless key pivots reclaim.

Highlights

Today

  • Spot gold broke below $4,600/oz, down ~$1,000/oz over the last 3 sessions.

  • BTC plunged to ~$77k, with ~$2.5B in leveraged long liquidations in 24h and a broader “risk-off” feel.

  • 16:00 Zurich: ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices Paid (rates/FX sensitive).

  • 17:30 Zurich: UST 3M + 6M bill auctions (front-end rate signal).

  • Prediction markets keep scaling: Jupiter integrating Polymarket, and Jan 2026 volumes: Polymarket $7.66B, Kalshi $9.16B.

This Week (3–6 bullets)

  • Megacap watch: Alphabet and Amazon later this week.

  • Policy/AI-chip optics remain a volatility layer alongside an event-heavy week (incl. central bank focus in the doc’s framing).

  • Next major index monthly expiration: Fri, 20 Feb 2026.

🔦 Market Risk Thermometer

🌐 Macro — Havens & Rates

📉 Technical

Global indices

📢 Sentiment

Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)

  • Today: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-02)

  • Yesterday: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-01)

  • 7D average: 21.1

  • Δ vs yesterday: +0.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -7.1

Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)

=== BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D) ===

Today: 2.57 — 2026-02-02

Yesterday: 2.74 — change vs yesterday: -0.17

7D average: 2.52

Date Ratio

2026-01-26 2.85

2026-01-27 2.39

2026-01-28 2.11

2026-01-29 2.04

2026-01-30 3.28

2026-01-31 2.52

2026-02-01 2.74

2026-02-02 2.57

=== ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D) ===

Today: 2.70 — 2026-02-02

Yesterday: 2.77 — change vs yesterday: -0.07

7D average: 2.66

Date Ratio

2026-01-26 3.58

2026-01-27 2.40

2026-01-28 2.01

2026-01-29 2.08

2026-01-30 3.28

2026-01-31 3.36

2026-02-01 2.77

2026-02-02 2.70

Volatility & Stablecoins

Metric

Value

% 1D

% 7D

Quick read

VIX (S&P 500 volatility)

17.44

+3.32%

+8.39%

Moderate volatility; relatively normal conditions.

USDT dominance (CMC)

7.23%

N/D

N/D

Moderate-high USDT dominance: more defensive tone; bias toward liquidity.

Crypto global RSI (Top 50 by market cap, ex-stables)

  • Basket average RSI: 19.1

🔗 On-chain

🔗 On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows

Sub-block

Quick read

CEX Netflows BTC+ETH

-34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on tilt.

DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama)

+26.60% vs 30D average

CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko)

Spot turnover: 1.81% of total mcap

Derivatives Activity (Global CG)

Derivatives turnover: 2.69x

Funding BTC/ETH (Binance)

Funding near neutral

Numeric detail

  • CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune): BTC -34.49M USD · ETH -64.59K USD · Total -34.56M USD

  • DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h volume 14.16B USD · 30D daily avg 11.18B USD · +26.60%

  • CEX Spot (CoinGecko): Spot vol 24h (top CEX) 47.75B USD (10 exchanges) · Total mcap 2.63T USD · Turnover 1.81%

  • Derivatives Global (CoinGecko): OI 103.34B USD · Derivs vol 24h 278.03B USD (top 10) · Turnover 2.69x · Deriv/Spot vol ratio 5.82x

  • Funding (Binance Futures): BTC 0.0001% per period · ETH -0.0153% per period

  • ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): 0.63 GWEI (very low) — low activity / low congestion

📊 Top Movers (CMC Top 100) — 2026-02-02 05:11

🔍 Market Lens

BTC (BTCUSDT): we touched the April minimum; the next high-interest point is around 71k where there is a Monthly OB. There is a huge daily gap that gets down to 70,600 — so it would not be a surprise to close it. We can’t see any sign of reversal or a grounding bottom; levels aren’t being respected, so we can only look downward.

ETH: levels aren’t being respected here either and we just see weakness in the move. Next point to look at is the old lows of 2,116$, and after that the round number, 2,000$.

USDT.D: we are reaching levels not seen since the bear market; if we look at the chart, it looks pretty bullish — and we know what that means for the market. As a live filter, 7.23% is the referenced USDT dominance reading : acceptance above = risk-off pressure, rejection/failure = relief window.

🔮 2-Scenario Forecast

Bull case: BTC stabilizes above 71k / 70,600 and reclaims 80k; ETH holds 2,116 and reclaims 2,413. Confirmation: USDT.D must reject/fail around 7.23% to allow a relief window.

Bear case: BTC loses 71k / 70,600 and accepts below; ETH breaks 2,116 and extends weakness. Confirmation: USDT.D closes above 7.23%, adding risk-off pressure.

🗓️ Key Economic Events

Key economic events today — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 (Zurich/CET)

⭐ Today’s top catalysts (highest market impact)

🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) + Prices Paid

PMI: 48.5 vs 47.9 prior

Prices Paid: 59.3 vs 58.5 prior

Watch rates/FX sensitivity: new orders + prices can move yields fast. (Forex Factory)

🇺🇸 14:45 — S&P Global US Final Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 51.9 (Forex Factory)

🇺🇸 17:30 — UST bill auctions (3M + 6M) (front-end rate signal) (FXStreet)

🇺🇸 18:30 — Fed speaker: Raphael Bostic (Forex Factory)

🔥 Quick scan table (Zurich/CET)

Time | Country | Event | Impact

14:45 | 🇺🇸 | S&P Global US Final Manufacturing PMI | 🟠

16:00 | 🇺🇸 | ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices Paid | 🔴

17:30 | 🇺🇸 | 3M + 6M Treasury bill auctions | 🔴

18:30 | 🇺🇸 | Fed speaker (Bostic) | 🟠

📊 Economic data (by release time)

Asia / Early session

🇯🇵 00:50 — Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (Forex Factory)

🇦🇺 01:00 — MI Inflation Gauge m/m: 0.2% (prior 1.0%) (Forex Factory)

🇦🇺 01:30 — ANZ Job Advertisements m/m: 4.4% (prior -0.8%) (Forex Factory)

🇨🇳 02:45 — RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 (prior 50.1) (Forex Factory)

🇦🇺 06:30 — Commodity Prices y/y: -3.8% (Forex Factory)

Europe (Final PMIs + Switzerland)

🇩🇪 08:00 — German Retail Sales m/m: -0.1% (prior -0.6%) (Forex Factory)

🇨🇭 08:30 — Swiss Retail Sales y/y: 2.5% (prior 2.3%) (Forex Factory)

🇪🇸 09:15 — Spain Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 (prior 49.6) (Forex Factory)

🇨🇭 09:30 — Switzerland Manufacturing PMI: 47.2 (prior 45.8) (Forex Factory)

🇮🇹 09:45 — Italy Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 (prior 47.9) (Forex Factory)

🇫🇷 09:50 — France Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (Forex Factory)

🇩🇪 09:55 — Germany Final Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 (Forex Factory)

🇪🇺 10:00 — Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 (Forex Factory)

🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 (Forex Factory)

🇬🇧 12:45 — BoE speaker: MPC Member Breeden (Forex Factory)

North America / US focus

🇨🇦 15:30 — Canada Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 (Forex Factory)

🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices Paid (Forex Factory)

🇺🇸 18:30 — Fed speaker: Bostic (Forex Factory)

🇺🇸 (Tentative) — Loan Officer Survey (Forex Factory)

🏦 Bond auctions / rates supply

🇺🇸 17:30 — US 3-Month Bill auction (last: ~3.58%) (FXStreet)

🇺🇸 17:30 — US 6-Month Bill auction (last: ~3.525%) (CME Group)

🇺🇸 5-Year Note settlement/issue today (auction held last week) — watch cash/timing effects in front-end liquidity. (treasurydirect.gov)

🧾 Earnings (largest / most tradeable today)

Pre-market US (before 15:30 Zurich cash open)

  • The Walt Disney Company (DIS) — webcast 08:30 ET → 14:30 Zurich

  • Tyson Foods (TSN) — call 09:00 ET → 15:00 Zurich

  • Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) — before open

After-hours US (after 22:00 Zurich)

  • Palantir Technologies (PLTR) — webcast 17:00 ET → 23:00 Zurich

  • Other notable names: Simon Property Group, NXP Semiconductors, IDEXX Laboratories, Teradyne, POSCO Holdings

⚡ Megacap watch (not today, but this week)

  • Alphabet later this week

  • Amazon later this week

🌍 Market-moving highlights (context)

  • Risk sentiment is fragile: broad “risk-off” tied to sharp moves in metals/crypto and macro uncertainty.

🧨 Futures & options expirations

  • No major index OPEX today (Monday).

  • Next “big” equity/index monthly expiration: Fri, 20 Feb 2026.

🔁 Revision watchlist (what can materially revise later)

  • Final PMIs (Europe/US S&P Global): small revisions vs flash are possible.

🗓️ What’s the next true macro landmine?

  • Even if today is “PMI day,” big US sensitivity remains around CPI / NFP / Core PCE.

🌍 Macro & Politics

  • Headline: Xi Jinping purged senior generals (including Zhang Youxia), consolidating military command and shaping the Taiwan approach around coercion below open conflict thresholds.

    • Why it matters: Fewer internal checks can raise miscalculation risk while intensifying gray-zone pressure around Taiwan.

    • Market angle: Geopolitical tail risk stays “on”; watch risk-sentiment sensitivity around tech/supply-chain themes.

  • Headline: The doc ties UAE lobbying for US AI chips to relationships involving Abu Dhabi leadership + US access debates (including China diversion concerns and past scrutiny around Huawei ties).

    • Why it matters: Chip access is strategic — policy swings can reshape capital flows and alliances.

    • Market angle: Into megacap earnings and an event-heavy week, AI-policy headlines add volatility.

🏦 Economy & Central Banks

  • Headline: Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination is cited alongside a surging dollar as part of the macro shock layered on top of forced liquidations.

    • Why it matters: Dollar strength + rate repricing can tighten financial conditions fast, amplifying cross-asset deleveraging.

    • Market angle: Today’s ISM + Prices Paid can move yields/FX quickly — watch the front end into bill auctions.

  • Headline: Fed/BoE communication risk: Raphael Bostic speaks; BoE’s MPC member Breeden is on the slate.

    • Why it matters: In fragile positioning, even “tone” events can shift rates expectations.

    • Market angle: Treat speaker risk as a volatility accelerant, not a directional anchor — price levels still rule.

📈 Markets & Corporates

  • Headline: Wall Street futures turned red in thin Sunday evening trade (Nasdaq -1%, S&P -0.6% in the doc’s framing) as risk sold off across metals/crypto.

    • Why it matters: Cross-asset drawdowns tighten liquidity and increase forced-selling probability.

    • Market angle: If equities remain heavy into US data, crypto bounces can fail at pivots (BTC 80k; ETH 2,413).

  • Headline: Earnings slate includes Disney, Tyson, Mizuho (pre-market) and Palantir (after-hours), with other notable names listed.

    • Why it matters: Single-stock volatility can bleed into index futures and risk appetite at the margin.

    • Market angle: Keep an eye on megacap read-through later this week (Alphabet, Amazon).

  • Headline: ETF flows snapshot: XRP spot ETFs net inflows last week while BTC/ETH/SOL spot ETFs net outflows (BTC -$1.49B, ETH -$326.93M, SOL -$2.45M, XRP +$52.26M).

    • Why it matters: Flow regimes can reinforce trend persistence during deleveraging windows.

    • Market angle: Use flows as context; your trade trigger remains level behavior (hold vs break).

🏛️ Crypto Industry

  • Headline: Polymarket: Federal Bureau of Investigation raided Shayne Coplan’s home (Nov 13, 2024); prosecutors investigated potential AML/unlicensed money transmitter issues; later the Department of Justice dropped the probe (July 1 letter from prosecutor Nicholas Roos).

    • Why it matters: Enforcement stance shifts are a direct tailwind/headwind for the whole “regulated prediction markets” stack and crypto rails.

    • Market angle: Regulatory headline risk remains a volatility source — especially when liquidity is thin.

  • Headline: Polymarket’s mainstreaming: data partnerships cited with Google/X/NHL/Dow Jones; a regulated US app approval; valuation boosted to $9B via NYSE parent investment deal; advisory/investment links involving Donald Trump Jr. and 1789 Capital (≥$10M total per the doc’s cited reporting).

    • Why it matters: The bridge between “TradFi distribution” and “crypto settlement rails” is getting structurally stronger.

    • Market angle: Bigger distribution can mean bigger reflexive moves around elections/macro events — and faster volume spikes.

  • Headline: Prediction markets growth: Jupiter integration positions it as a Solana prediction-market hub; Coinbase rolled out Kalshi-powered prediction markets in all 50 US states; Polymarket signed an exclusive multi-year MLS sports licensing deal.

    • Why it matters: Event-driven trading is expanding beyond niche crypto users into mainstream UX and regulated rails.

    • Market angle: Volume growth can be pro-cyclical — but still vulnerable to risk-off drawdowns and policy shock.

🤖 Tech & AI

  • Headline: AI-chip access politics: the doc links UAE lobbying and AI-chip access debates to overlapping leadership networks around G42/MGX and policy scrutiny.

    • Why it matters: AI infrastructure is strategic; access constraints can re-route capital and partnerships.

    • Market angle: Layer this as “headline vol” on top of megacap earnings week risk.

🪙 Crypto

  • Headline: Weekend crash: BTC plunged to ~77k, wiping ~$800B since the Oct peak (>126k) with ~$2.5B leveraged longs liquidated in 24h; the doc ties the move to geopolitics, a strong dollar, and cascading liquidations across crypto/metals/futures.

    • Why it matters: This is classic deleveraging — liquidity gaps widen, and levels stop behaving “cleanly.”

    • Market angle: Treat bounces as suspect until pivots reclaim (BTC 80k; ETH 2,413).

  • Headline: Metals “hard money reset”: silver cited as a historic crash (-26% to $85.30) and gold down sharply (including the “below $4,600” print), reinforcing that even “safety trades” can unwind.

    • Why it matters: If “hard money” sells with crypto, correlation stress rises and risk gets repriced broadly.

    • Market angle: That backdrop supports USDT dominance staying firm unless risk stabilizes.

  • Headline: Michael Saylor / Strategy: BTC briefly dipped below Strategy’s cited average entry (~$76,037); the doc notes no forced selling because coins aren’t pledged as collateral, but fundraising gets harder.

    • Why it matters: If marginal corporate bid weakens, market becomes more vulnerable to forced liquidations/profit-taking.

    • Market angle: This increases the importance of clean reclaim levels (80k / 2,413) before trusting trend reversal.

  • Headline: Whales vs retail: the doc frames retail capitulation while “mega-whales” buy quietly during the drawdown.

    • Why it matters: Divergence can mark inflection points — but it can also just be “better buyers absorbing forced sellers.”

    • Market angle: Use it as context only; price still must hold/support or reclaim pivots.

  • Headline: Hyperliquid: “Hyperunit whale” reportedly exited a full ETH position for a ~$250M loss (Arkham-linked reporting), account shown at $53.

    • Why it matters: High-profile leverage blowups can intensify risk-off reflex, especially in thin liquidity.

    • Market angle: Sentiment fuel only — reclaim pivots (BTC 80k; ETH 2,413) before treating it as a bounce signal.

Closing Market Read

The tape is still in “deleveraging mode” after the weekend flush — metals broke hard, BTC printed ~77k, and liquidity is thin into US PMI + front-end supply.

Two outcomes only: hold vs break. If BTC holds 71k / 70,600 and reclaims 80k, and ETH holds 2,116 and reclaims 2,413, you can get a relief window — especially if USDT dominance fails to push above 7.23%.

If BTC loses 71k / 70,600 (gap fill acceptance) and ETH breaks 2,116, assume the path of least resistance stays down and volatility stays elevated into the week’s event stack.

👋 Goodbye

That’s the full read for today. Trade small, respect the levels, and let the data (and liquidity) prove the turn before you size up.

Winter Sun Capital

© 2026 Winter Sun Capital.
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