👋
Morning from Therwil!
Today is a classic “macro headline vs crypto structure” day: Middle East escalation is pushing oil and gold up, while risk gauges (VIX, USDT dominance) stay in a more “controlled stress” zone.
On the calendar, ISM Manufacturing (and Prices Paid) is your main scheduled volatility trigger in Zurich time.
Highlights
Today
Middle East conflict premium back in the driver seat (oil spike risk + safe-haven bid).
US data trigger: ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices Paid at 16:00 Zurich.
Crypto majors bounced from weekend war-driven dump; market still fragile into TradFi reopen.
This Week
“Big US data week” flagged (ISM, retail sales, payrolls).
Earnings watch (week): Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), MongoDB (MDB), Plug Power (PLUG).
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates (Updated: 2026-03-02 05:51)
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 10 — Extreme Fear (2026-03-02)
Yesterday: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-03-01)
7D average: 11.1
Δ vs yesterday: -4.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -1.1
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.74 — 2026-03-02
Yesterday: 1.89 — change: -0.15
7D average: 1.97
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-23 | 1.93 |
2026-02-24 | 2.42 |
2026-02-25 | 2.13 |
2026-02-26 | 1.49 |
2026-02-27 | 1.82 |
2026-02-28 | 2.33 |
2026-03-01 | 1.89 |
2026-03-02 | 1.74 |
ETHUSDT — global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.15 — 2026-03-02
Yesterday: 2.27 — change: -0.12
7D average: 2.19
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-23 | 2.81 |
2026-02-24 | 2.70 |
2026-02-25 | 2.26 |
2026-02-26 | 1.42 |
2026-02-27 | 1.81 |
2026-02-28 | 2.71 |
2026-03-01 | 2.27 |
2026-03-02 | 2.15 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 19.86 | +6.60% | +4.03% | Moderate volatility; relatively “normal” regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.98% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance → more defensive liquidity bias. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 44.6
🔗 On-chain — CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -21.00% vs 30D avg |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.02% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.22x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h vol: 8.25B · 30D daily avg: 10.44B · vs 30D: -21.00%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko): Spot vol 24h (top CEX): 24.23B (sum of 10 exchanges) · Total mcap: 2.38T · Turnover spot: 1.02%
Derivatives (CoinGecko): OI: 81.42B · Derivs vol 24h: 180.40B (top 10) · Turnover: 2.22x · Derivs/Spot vol ratio: 7.44x
Funding (Binance Futures): BTC: -0.0003% per period · ETH: -0.0076% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): 0.04 GWEI (very low activity / low congestion)
📊 Top Movers
🔍 Market Lens
BTC: Price was dropping Sunday evening but bounced and now we are heading to take liquidity from the upper part. Interesting to see if it would be able to break the middle range — it wouldn’t be weird to do it with this environment.
ETH: Similar situation, but here we have the middle range first, which matches the round number of 2k. As long as we respect both sides of the range, there is no need for panic.
USDT: As long as we continue inside this range, everything remains under control. We have to care if we lose the lows or break the upper part.
Market reflection: If somebody tells you “analyse me BTC & ETH” and then tells you all the macro news… you’d either think he is mad, or something is off — because, as far as the crypto market is concerned, it’s business as usual: no panic, no liquidation cascade. We had an initial dump, but not bigger than others. This makes me think that, at the moment, the market is leaning toward a shorter conflict.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Mon, 2 Mar 2026 (Zurich CET / UTC+1)
⭐ Highest-impact to watch
🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (Prev 52.6, Forecast 51.7)
🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (Feb) (Prev 59.0, Forecast 60.6)
🇺🇸 15:45 — S&P Global US Final Manufacturing PMI (Feb) (Final/Rev.)
Economic data (by time — Zurich)
Asia / Oceania
🇦🇺 01:00 — MI Inflation Gauge m/m
🇦🇺 01:30 — ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
🇦🇺 01:30 — Company Operating Profits q/q
🇯🇵 01:30 — Final Manufacturing PMI
🇦🇺 06:30 — Commodity Prices y/y
🇨🇳 Tentative — Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ytd/y
Europe
🇩🇪 08:00 — German Retail Sales m/m
🇬🇧 08:00 — Nationwide HPI m/m
🇨🇭 08:30 — Swiss Retail Sales y/y
🇪🇸 09:15 — Spain Manufacturing PMI
🇨🇭 09:30 — Switzerland Manufacturing PMI
🇮🇹 09:45 — Italy Manufacturing PMI
🇫🇷 09:50 — France Final Manufacturing PMI
🇩🇪 09:55 — Germany Final Manufacturing PMI
🇪🇺 10:00 — Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Final Manufacturing PMI
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK M4 Money Supply m/m
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Mortgage Approvals
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m
North America
🇨🇦 15:30 — Canada Manufacturing PMI
🇺🇸 15:45 — US Final Manufacturing PMI
🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices Paid
Central bank speakers / market-moving speeches (Zurich)
🇦🇺 13:30 — RBA Asst. Gov Hunter speaks
🇬🇧 (time shown on calendar day) — BoE MPC Member Taylor speaks
🇨🇦 15:00 — BoC Gov Council Member Kozicki speaks
🇪🇺 15:00 — ECB President Lagarde speaks
🇪🇺 15:10 — Bundesbank President Nagel speaks
🇬🇧 16:30 — BoE MPC Member Ramsden speaks
🇦🇺 22:10 — RBA Gov Bullock speaks
Bond auctions / issuance (US)
🇺🇸 13-Week Bill auction date: 02 Mar
🇺🇸 26-Week Bill auction date: 02 Mar
Earnings (largest / market-relevant today)
No US megacap reports flagged for today.
This week watchlist includes: NCLH, MDB, PLUG.
Futures / options expiries (today)
No major quarterly index expiry today.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Middle East conflict premium drives oil surge; stocks slide; safe havens bid.
Why it matters: Oil supply risk (Hormuz flow risk) can re-price inflation expectations fast, hitting growth-sensitive assets and pressuring risk parity positioning.
Market angle: Expect cross-asset volatility into the open (energy up, equities down, gold bid). Watch whether risk stays “contained” or turns into a broader risk-off unwind.
Headline: Iran says it will not negotiate with the United States.
Why it matters: Extends tail risk duration; keeps oil/geopolitics as the macro anchor even with heavy US data this week.
Market angle: Adds persistence to the risk premium—especially if shipping/insurance constraints tighten further.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: US manufacturing data is the key scheduled catalyst today (ISM PMI + Prices Paid at 16:00 Zurich).
Why it matters: PMI drives growth expectations; Prices Paid hits the inflation impulse directly (rate path sensitivity).
Market angle: If PMI weakens while Prices Paid stays hot → “stagflation-ish” tape risk; if both cool → yields can stay supported lower, easing financial conditions.
Headline: Central bank speaker cluster (Lagarde + Nagel + BoE + BoC + RBA).
Why it matters: In headline-driven weeks, CB language can amplify (or dampen) rates volatility.
Market angle: Keep an eye on FX sensitivity (USD bid noted alongside risk-off tape).
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Oil up sharply; equity futures down; gold up; US 10Y near ~3.97% (moderate yields).
Why it matters: Classic geopolitical mix: energy shock risk + safe-haven rotation.
Market angle: If oil stays elevated into the week, it becomes a “macro tax” on risk—watch how cyclicals and importers react.
Headline: US bill auctions today (13W and 26W).
Why it matters: Front-end funding conditions matter when the market is already sensitive to inflation and risk headlines.
Market angle: Large demand helps keep yields anchored; weak demand can add fuel to volatility around ISM.
Headline: Risk-meter system status: Technical module failed (TAAPI 403/429); Institutional module import error.
Why it matters: Missing technical/institutional inputs reduces dashboard completeness for today’s decision cycle.
Market angle: Lean more on macro + sentiment + on-chain blocks (gold, VIX, positioning, DEX/CEX volumes) until fixed.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: JPMorgan: US crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-year; potential positive catalyst in H2.
Why it matters: Regulatory clarity can widen institutional participation and change which tokens are “tradable” for bigger balance sheets.
Market angle: This is a “medium-term narrative tailwind,” but it won’t override today’s macro volatility triggers (geopolitics + ISM).
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: “Jitters over AI-related stocks” noted as part of the broader risk pressure.
Why it matters: AI leadership has been a key positioning pillar; instability there can leak into broad indices and risk appetite.
Market angle: If equities open heavy, crypto’s weekend bounce can get tested alongside broader risk sentiment.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Majors rebounded Sunday (BTC back above ~66,800; ETH near ~2,000; SOL led bounce), but rally described as fragile into TradFi reopen.
Why it matters: Weekend liquidity can exaggerate both dumps and squeezes; the “real test” is when oil/equities/bonds reopen with institutional flow.
Market angle: Watch for fade risk if oil spikes and equities gap lower; if ceasefire odds stay supported, bounce can extend.
Closing Market Read
BTC bounced and is pressing toward the upper liquidity again, but today’s real volatility trigger is 16:00 Zurich (ISM PMI + Prices Paid) on top of the Middle East tape.
Hold: BTC above 66,800 and ETH reclaim/hold 2,000 → range control stays intact and the “business as usual” crypto read holds.
Break: BTC back below 64,000 or ETH losing the ~2,000 zone → risk of a fade as TradFi reprices oil/equities, with gold already bid and VIX elevated.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full slate for today. Trade the schedule, respect the headline tape, and keep it binary around your hold/break levels.