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Morning from Therwil! Today is a Europe CPI + UK fiscal setup into Fed speakers later, while the broader tape stays hostage to Middle East escalation → energy supply risk → rates + risk sentiment.
Highlights
Today
11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI Flash (Feb) — headline/core in focus for ECB repricing.
13:30 🇬🇧 UK Annual Budget release — GBP + gilts via fiscal impulse / issuance expectations.
17:55 🇺🇸 Fed speaker (Williams) + 19:45 🇺🇸 Fed speaker (Kashkari) — rates/DXY sensitivity.
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury bills — Auction day (17-Week Bill; timing note included in doc).
Earnings watch: BABA, CRWD, TGT, AZO, ROST, SE, BBY.
Crypto governance: Aave “Aave Will Win” framework passes temp check (52.58% YAE).
EU stablecoin push: Qivalis bank consortium targeting euro stablecoin launch H2 2026.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🔍 Market Lens
Follow-up after clearing PWH: can BTC/ETH hold the levels, or does the market mean-revert.
BTC: We went to clean the PWH — now watch how well price holds. A reverse back into 66k–65k would not surprise.
ETH: Needs to hold the levels to avoid revisiting the zone left yesterday.
USDT: Still ranging; price reacting to the extremes (0%–100%).
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today (Tue, 3 Mar 2026) — Zurich time (CET, 24h)
⭐ Highest focus
11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI Flash (Feb) — Headline YoY: 1.7% (prev 1.7%) · Core YoY: 2.2% (prev 2.2%)
13:30 🇬🇧 UK Annual Budget Release
17:55 🇺🇸 Fed speakers (FOMC) — Williams
Economic data & central banks (all Zurich time)
Asia / Overnight
00:30 🇯🇵 Japan Unemployment Rate — 2.7% (cons 2.6%, prev 2.6%)
00:50 🇯🇵 Japan Capital Spending (q/y) — 6.5% (cons 3.0%, prev 2.9%)
00:50 🇯🇵 Japan Monetary Base (y/y) — -10.6% (cons -9.8%, prev -9.5%)
01:01 🇬🇧 BRC Shop Price Index (y/y) — 1.1% (cons 1.4%, prev 1.5%)
01:30 🇦🇺 Australia Building Approvals (m/m) — -7.2% (cons 5.4%, prev -14.9%)
01:30 🇦🇺 Australia Current Account (Q4) — -21.1B (cons -16.8B, prev -18.3B)
Rates / auctions / speakers
04:35 🇯🇵 Japan 10Y JGB Auction — 2.12% (prev 2.25%)
05:00 🇯🇵 BOJ Governor Ueda speaks
Europe morning
08:45 🇫🇷 France Gov Budget Balance (Jan) (prev -124.7B)
09:00 🇪🇸 Spain Unemployment Change (Feb) (prev 30.4K)
11:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI Flash (Feb) — headline/core
11:00 🇮🇹 Italy Prelim CPI (m/m) — 0.3% (cons 0.4%)
US afternoon / evening
17:55 🇺🇸 FOMC member Williams speaks
Tentative 🇺🇸 RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (survey)
All day 🇺🇸 Wards Total Vehicle Sales
19:45 🇺🇸 FOMC member Kashkari speaks
00:30 🇺🇸 (Wed) API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Bond auctions (macro-critical)
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury bills — Auction day today
17-Week Bill — Auction date: Tue, 3 Mar 2026 (timing note in doc)
No U.S. coupon note/bond auctions listed for today in the pulled items; next coupons later this week per the referenced listing.
Earnings (largest movers scheduled today)
🇨🇳 Alibaba (BABA)
🇺🇸 CrowdStrike (CRWD)
🇺🇸 Target (TGT)
🇺🇸 AutoZone (AZO)
🇺🇸 Ross Stores (ROST)
🇸🇬 Sea (SE)
🇺🇸 Best Buy (BBY)
Futures & options expiries
No major index OPEX / quarterly expiry flagged for today.
Revision watchlist
🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI Flash → later finals can revise (watch core components).
🇮🇹 Italy prelim CPI → revisions can nudge the Eurozone inflation narrative at the margin.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: SCO member states express “grave concern” over the Middle East situation and the armed attack against Iran; call for restraint and UN Security Council action.
Why it matters: Reinforces the diplomatic pressure channel, but the message is “dialogue/cease actions,” not immediate de-escalation.
Market angle: Keeps geopolitical risk premium elevated; rates + energy remain the transmission lines into broader risk.
Headline: Iran conflict drags energy and shipping risk into the open: Hormuz traffic near-halt + attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Why it matters: Supply-chain + energy shock risk (oil exports collapse cited; LNG disruptions; broader economic consequences).
Market angle: Higher energy → inflation impulse → rates volatility; risk assets trade with headline risk.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Today’s macro catalyst stack is EU CPI Flash + UK Budget + Fed speakers (Williams/Kashkari).
Why it matters: CPI is the biggest ECB input; budget can move gilt issuance expectations; Fed speak can reprice USTs/DXY.
Market angle: Watch EUR/Bunds at 11:00, then GBP/gilts at 13:30, then USTs/DXY into the NY afternoon.
Headline: Japan prints: unemployment ticked up (2.7% vs 2.6% cons), monetary base more negative (-10.6% y/y), capital spending stronger (6.5% q/y).
Why it matters: Mixed macro signal; BOJ communication remains live with Ueda speaking and 10Y JGB auction results noted.
Market angle: JPY rates channel can spill into global duration sentiment when risk is already fragile.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Conflict weighs on Asian equities; Nikkei down (2.5%), South Korea benchmark down (5%+), tied to extended conflict risk + curtailed energy supplies.
Why it matters: Energy chokepoint risk is translating directly into risk-off equities in import-dependent regions.
Market angle: Session-to-session correlation likely stays high: oil/gas headlines → rates → equities.
Headline: Earnings slate (BABA, CRWD, TGT, AZO, ROST, SE, BBY) with “no megacap always-flag names” highlighted in today’s slice.
Why it matters: Single-stock volatility pockets even if the macro tape dominates.
Market angle: Use earnings as volatility sources, but size around macro event windows (EU CPI / UK budget / Fed).
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Qivalis (12 European banks) advances a euro-backed stablecoin targeting H2 2026; 1:1 euro peg with reserve mix (bank deposits + short-term eurozone sovereign bonds); distribution talks with exchanges/MMs/liquidity providers; MiCA compliance emphasized.
Why it matters: Institutional competition to USD stablecoins framed as a “regulated, domestic alternative,” with explicit distribution/liquidity planning.
Market angle: Watch the EUR stablecoin narrative as a regulatory + payments rail theme (not just trading collateral).
Headline: Aave governance temp check passes (“Aave Will Win”) with 52.58% YAE; framework includes routing 100% product revenue to the DAO treasury, trademark foundation concept, V4 as core tech layer, and DAO-funded growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Structural shift in revenue + governance + roadmap (App/Pro/Card/Kit/Horizon + proposed AAVE ETP) and sets up follow-on ARFC.
Market angle: Governance risk becomes price-relevant (revenue capture expectations, execution milestones, voting dynamics criticism).
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: AWS service disruption reported after unidentified objects struck a UAE data center, causing a fire (context: ongoing strikes).
Why it matters: Highlights how kinetic conflict can hit “digital infrastructure,” not just energy/logistics.
Market angle: Adds another layer to regional risk premium (AI/data-center hub ambitions vs. operational fragility).
Closing Market Read
Today is a macro catalyst stack (EU CPI 11:00, UK Budget 13:30, Fed speakers into NY) on top of an energy/geopolitical risk premium that’s already pressuring risk sentiment.
BTC: if price holds, you’re watching for continuation after the PWH clean; if it breaks, the doc’s key risk zone is 66k–65k.
ETH: same framing — hold the levels, or break and revisit “the zone left yesterday” (no numeric level provided in the doc).
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full tape from today’s document. Trade the time windows, respect the headline risk, and keep your levels tight.