👋 Opening
Morning from Therwil.
Today is a rates + headline mix: US Jobless Claims, ECB accounts, then Lagarde — all while oil/energy remains the macro volatility switch as the Middle East conflict continues.
Crypto tone improved on price, but positioning + sentiment still reads defensive.
Highlights
Today
🇺🇸 14:30 Jobless Claims + 🇪🇺 13:30 ECB accounts + 🇪🇺 18:00 Lagarde = the main intraday risk window for rates, USD, and risk.
Oil/energy remains the key macro “safe-haven” narrative as supply risk builds and Europe gas rallies again.
Crypto regulation headlines stack up (CLARITY / banking rails / Coinbase–Trump meeting).
This Week
US 10Y yields pushed above 4% and rose each day this week, framed as inflation expectations.
Middle East conflict entered its sixth day; Hormuz bottleneck risk keeps risk assets headline-sensitive.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed (alternative.me)
Today: 22 — Extreme Fear (2026-03-05)
Yesterday: 10 — Extreme Fear (2026-03-04)
7D average: 13.4
Δ vs yesterday: +12.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +8.6
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT
Today: 0.81 — 2026-03-05
Yesterday: 1.43 — change vs yesterday: -0.62
7D average: 1.58
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-26 | 1.49 |
2026-02-27 | 1.82 |
2026-02-28 | 2.33 |
2026-03-01 | 1.89 |
2026-03-02 | 1.74 |
2026-03-03 | 1.05 |
2026-03-04 | 1.43 |
2026-03-05 | 0.81 |
ETHUSDT
Today: 1.14 — 2026-03-05
Yesterday: 2.16 — change vs yesterday: -1.01
7D average: 1.94
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-26 | 1.42 |
2026-02-27 | 1.81 |
2026-02-28 | 2.71 |
2026-03-01 | 2.27 |
2026-03-02 | 2.15 |
2026-03-03 | 1.32 |
2026-03-04 | 2.16 |
2026-03-05 | 1.14 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 21.15 | -10.27% | +17.96% | Moderate vol; relatively normal regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.52% | N/D | N/D | Moderately high USDT dominance → somewhat defensive / liquidity bias. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by mcap, ex-stables)
Basket average RSI: 53.4
🔗 On-chain
🔗 On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -0.12% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.69% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivs turnover: 2.81x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h vol 9.81B · 30D daily avg 9.82B · % vs 30D -0.12%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko): spot vol 42.53B (top 10 CEX) · total mcap 2.52T · turnover 1.69%
Derivatives (CoinGecko): OI 93.71B · deriv vol 263.31B (top 10 deriv CEX) · turnover 2.81x · Deriv/Spot 6.19x
Funding (Binance Futures): BTC 0.0036% per period · ETH -0.0013% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): 0.05 GWEI (very low)
📊 Top Movers
🔍 Market Lens
BTC
After yesterday’s strong push, price broke above the range and closed above key levels. The immediate question is what gets tagged first: 71k or 75k.
ETH
Similar move, but less confident: price slipped back inside the range, though the broader structure remains similar.
USDT dominance
Unlike BTC/ETH, USDT dominance broke down and closed below. If this continues, it supports a better risk backdrop.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Thu, 05 Mar 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
⭐ Highest-impact (watch these first)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
🇪🇺 13:30 — ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
🇪🇺 18:00 — Lagarde speaks
Economic data & central bank speakers (Zurich time)
Asia / Overnight
🇦🇺 01:30 — Australia Goods Trade Balance (Jan): 2.63B vs 3.78B prior 3.37B
🇦🇺 01:30 — Australia Household Spending m/m: 0.3% vs 0.4% prior -0.5%
🇯🇵 04:35 — Japan 30Y JGB Auction: 3.40%
Europe
🇫🇷 08:45 — France Industrial Production m/m: 0.5% vs 0.4% prior -0.5%
🇨🇭 09:00 — Switzerland Unemployment Rate: 3.0% vs 2.9% prior 2.9%
🇮🇹 10:00 — Italy Retail Sales m/m: -0.1% (prior -0.8%)
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Construction PMI: 47.0 (prior 46.4)
🇩🇪 11:00 — Bundesbank President Nagel speaks
🇪🇺 11:00 — Euro Area Retail Sales m/m: 0.3% (prior -0.5%)
🇫🇷 (Tentative) — France 10Y Bond Auction
US
🇺🇸 13:30 — Challenger Job Cuts y/y: 117.8%
🇺🇸 14:30 — Initial Jobless Claims: 215K vs 212K
🇺🇸 14:30 — Import Prices m/m: 0.3% vs 0.1%
🇺🇸 14:30 — Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q: 1.9% vs 4.9%
🇺🇸 14:30 — Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q: 2.0% vs -1.9%
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Natural Gas Storage: -122B vs -52B
🇺🇸 19:00 — FOMC Member Bowman speaks
Bond auctions (market-moving for rates)
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury bill settlement/issuance today (incl. 6-week/42-day bill)
🇯🇵 04:35 — Japan 30Y JGB auction
🇫🇷 (Tentative) — France 10Y auction
Earnings (large / market-relevant)
🇺🇸 After US close (after 22:00 Zurich): Costco (COST) — EPS est. 4.51 (prev 4.02)
🇺🇸 Pre-market (before 15:30 Zurich): JD.com (JD) — EPS est. 2.33 (prev 7.42)
🇺🇸 Kroger (KR) — EPS est. 1.22 (prev 1.14)
🇨🇦 Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — EPS est. 0.74 (prev 0.93)
🇩🇪 Deutsche Post (DPW) — EPS est. 1.04 (prev 0.93)
Revision watchlist
🇺🇸 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (prelim) → later revisions can flip the wage-inflation narrative
🇺🇸 Jobless Claims → noisy weekly series; market often trades the trend more than one print
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Middle East conflict keeps oil/energy as the macro “safe-haven,” with Hormuz supply flow risk tightening.
Why it matters: Energy shock risk can re-ignite inflation and force rates higher even if growth slows.
Market angle: Watch crude and EU gas as the volatility trigger for index futures + crypto beta.
Headline: China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, signaling a slower-growth era.
Why it matters: It frames lower tolerance for domestic weakness while staying export/industrial-policy heavy.
Market angle: Macro risk stays sensitive to global demand + geopolitics; China growth tolerance can reshape risk premia.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: US yields climbed above 4% (10Y), driven by higher inflation expectations.
Why it matters: Higher yields tighten financial conditions and can cap risk rallies.
Market angle: Claims + productivity/unit labor costs today can move rates quickly; size risk accordingly.
Headline: “Powell won, but the Fed might still lose its battle for independence.”
Why it matters: Perceived independence risk can reprice term premium and volatility.
Market angle: Watch for rates volatility spillover into high-beta (crypto / growth).
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Stock futures slipped with oil higher; EU natural gas resumed a rally.
Why it matters: Energy-led inflation fear is back in the driver’s seat.
Market angle: Keep one eye on Brent (~$84 area in the doc) as the “risk switch.”
Headline: CrowdStrike posted strong earnings; clients leaning on it as AI raises cyber complexity.
Why it matters: AI-driven security spend remains sticky demand.
Market angle: AI theme persists, but the market’s tolerance depends on rates.
Headline: Moderna to pay $950M to settle patent litigation; stock popped while counterparts sold off.
Why it matters: Litigation outcomes can flip biotech pricing fast.
Market angle: Event risk remains high; treat as gap-risk setups.
Headline: Bayer reported widening losses linked to Roundup legal battle; shares fell.
Why it matters: Legal liabilities remain an equity overhang.
Market angle: Europe single-name risk can spike alongside energy headlines.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Kraken became the first crypto firm to win access to the Fed’s core payments system (limited / “skinny” style access).
Why it matters: It’s a structural step toward mainstream payment rails for digital-asset firms.
Market angle: Positive for infrastructure narrative — but bank pushback signals ongoing regulatory friction.
Headline: Trump urged banks to support the CLARITY Act; TD Cowen says the post alone likely won’t move the bill.
Why it matters: Stablecoin yield + conflict-of-interest restrictions remain the blocking issues.
Market angle: Regulatory progress remains headline-driven; don’t confuse posts with legislative certainty.
Headline: CoinDesk confirmed Trump met privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong before the Truth Social post.
Why it matters: Signals direct executive attention to market structure/stablecoin politics.
Market angle: If direct negotiation ramps, crypto-sensitive equities can respond sharply.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Ethereum Foundation wants Ethereum to act as a “trust layer” for AI (coordination/verification layer; agent identity standards like ERC-8004 mentioned).
Why it matters: Positions Ethereum as rails for identity, reputation, payments, and proofs as agentic AI expands.
Market angle: AI narrative support for ETH is real, but price still trades macro beta first.
Headline: Nvidia changed how it reports share-based compensation, potentially pressuring other tech firms on adjustments.
Why it matters: Reporting changes can reshape earnings quality narratives in mega-tech.
Market angle: Tech multiple sensitivity stays tied to yields; keep rates as your filter.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Crypto rebounded; bitcoin jumped, and crypto-linked equities (Strategy/Coinbase/Robinhood) were up in premarket in the doc.
Why it matters: Risk appetite can snap back fast, but it’s fragile under energy/rates pressure.
Market angle: Pair crypto longs with a live read on USDT dominance + yields; fade if either flips back risk-off.
Closing Market Read
Hold vs break (two outcomes only):
HOLD: If BTC holds the post-breakout structure, the path is “tag order” → 71k first, then 75k. ETH holding around the 2,122 area keeps the rebound narrative alive, especially if USDT dominance continues lower.
BREAK: If BTC fails and slides back into the prior range, expect risk to wobble into the 13:30–18:00 Europe window (ECB accounts → Lagarde) and 14:30 US claims — with oil/energy headlines still the volatility trigger.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full read for today. Trade the event windows cleanly and keep oil + rates as your risk filter.