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Morning from Therwil!
Today’s setup is not clean risk-on. The market still dealing with war-driven energy stress, higher volatility, and a heavy U.S. macro block later in the day, while crypto sentiment remains fragile rather than washed out.
The core for today is simple: geopolitics is keeping oil, yields, and headline risk elevated, and the 14:30 data window has enough weight to reset the intraday tone across rates, equities, FX, and crypto.
Highlights
Today
14:30 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Situation + U.S. Retail Sales is the main macro reset point of the session.
Fed speakers remain active through the afternoon and evening, so post-data reversals are possible.
Middle East war headlines continue to pressure energy, yields, and broad risk sentiment.
Broadcom remains the most relevant earnings carryover for AI / semis sentiment.
Crypto sentiment is still defensive, with Fear & Greed at Extreme Fear and VIX sharply higher.
This Week
Broadcom reported Q1 revenue of $19.31B, AI revenue of $8.4B, and guided Q2 revenue to $22B.
Costco reported on 5 March and remains relevant for today’s U.S. session.
The U.S.-Iran war shock has already pushed oil above $80, lifted yields, and disrupted shipping / airfreight conditions.
China is trying to keep diplomatic space open while Washington prepares for further talks with Beijing ahead of a Trump-Xi summit framework.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 18 – Extreme Fear (2026-03-06)
Yesterday: 22 – Extreme Fear (2026-03-05)
7-day average: 14.1
Change vs yesterday: -4.0 | Change vs 7-day average: +3.9
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.17 – 2026-03-06
Yesterday: 0.81 – change vs yesterday: +0.36
7-day average: 1.49
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-27 | 1.82 |
2026-02-28 | 2.33 |
2026-03-01 | 1.89 |
2026-03-02 | 1.74 |
2026-03-03 | 1.05 |
2026-03-04 | 1.43 |
2026-03-05 | 0.81 |
2026-03-06 | 1.17 |
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.63 – 2026-03-06
Yesterday: 1.14 – change vs yesterday: +0.48
7-day average: 1.91
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-27 | 1.81 |
2026-02-28 | 2.71 |
2026-03-01 | 2.27 |
2026-03-02 | 2.15 |
2026-03-03 | 1.32 |
2026-03-04 | 2.16 |
2026-03-05 | 1.14 |
2026-03-06 | 1.63 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | 1D % | 7D % | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 23.75 | +12.29% | +27.48% | Moderate volatility, but clearly rising. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.63% | N/D | N/D | Moderately high USDT dominance: somewhat more defensive market tone, partial bias toward liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 53.3
🔗 On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -12.85% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.16% of market cap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.09x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numerical detail
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 8.36B USD · 30D daily average: 9.60B USD · % vs 30D: -12.85%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
24h spot volume (top CEX): 29.00B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 2.49T USD · Spot turnover: 1.16%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 87.56B USD · 24h derivatives volume: 183.22B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 2.09x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot volume ratio: 6.32x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0017% per period · ETH funding: 0.0044% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.03 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
🔍 Market Lens
Btc:
It retraced from the local high and got back into the range again. We will see whether it can break above again or if it will just stay within the range. The 70k is key for today; it should not close below if it wants to keep the bull structure.
Eth:
Similar to BTC here, we should not lost the 2040 zone.
Usdt:
Well, yesterday I wrote that if it closed inside the range it would be a bad sign for risk, and it happened. It does not look good. We could call it a “spring.” We will see over the next few days how it evolves.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
🔴 Highest-priority events
14:30 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Situation (February)
Non-Farm Payrolls: 58K forecast, 130K previous
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
14:30 🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Sales (January)
Retail Sales m/m: -0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
Other relevant economic data
11:00 🇪🇺 Euro Area Q4 GDP / employment revisions
Revised GDP q/q: 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
Final Employment Change q/q: 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
09:00 🇨🇭 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves
08:00 🇬🇧 U.K. Halifax HPI m/m
16:00 🇨🇦 Canada Ivey PMI
Forecast 51.1 vs 50.9 prior
16:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Business Inventories m/m
Forecast 0.1% vs 0.1% prior
21:00 🇺🇸 U.S. Consumer Credit m/m
Forecast $12.4B vs $24.0B prior
🎙️ Central bank / policy speakers
01:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Goolsbee
13:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Waller
14:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Daly
15:50 🇺🇸 FOMC Goolsbee
16:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Daly
16:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Paulson
17:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Miran
17:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Schmid
19:20 🇺🇸 FOMC Collins
19:30 🇦🇺 RBA Deputy Governor Hauser
19:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Hammack
21:10 🇺🇸 FOMC Hammack
🧾 Earnings to watch
Relevant market names around today’s session
🇺🇸 Costco (reported 5 Mar, still market-relevant today)
🇺🇸 Broadcom (reported 4 Mar, still market-relevant today)
Q1 revenue: $19.31B
AI revenue: $8.4B
Q2 revenue guidance: $22B
⏳ Futures / options expiration
Normal daily/weekly index options expiry is active.
The larger quarterly expiry event is still ahead on 20 March 2026.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: The war with Iran is colliding with Trump’s economic priorities as higher gasoline prices, higher mortgage rates, weaker markets, and broader inflation anxiety start to hit households and businesses.
Why it matters: Highlights a direct domestic transmission channel from war to consumer prices, credit conditions, logistics costs, and political pressure ahead of the midterms.
Market angle: War is no longer just a geopolitical headline; it is feeding directly into oil, inflation expectations, yields, and growth risk.
Headline: The conflict widened further, with fresh Israeli strikes on Tehran and Hezbollah-linked targets in Beirut, while missile and drone threats continued across the Gulf and the regional risk map expanded to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Azerbaijan.
Why it matters: This confirms the situation is not a contained bilateral clash but a broader regional confrontation with shipping and infrastructure implications.
Market angle: Hormuz stress, rerouted crude flows, and broader regional spillover keep oil and risk sentiment on edge.
Headline: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is considering asking China to buy less Russian and Iranian oil and more American energy ahead of Trump’s planned Beijing visit and a possible April Trump-Xi summit.
Why it matters: Energy security is becoming a formal U.S.-China negotiation topic, alongside rare earths, tariffs, soybeans, Boeing jets, and tech export restrictions.
Market angle: The war shock is now bleeding into trade diplomacy, commodity flows, and broader great-power bargaining.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Today’s main macro event is the 14:30 Zurich U.S. data block: payrolls, unemployment, wages, and retail sales.
Why it matters: This is the only scheduled release in the document that can fully reset the day’s macro narrative.
Market angle: Rates, DXY, equities, and crypto can all reprice sharply on the first print and then again on the internals.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: U.S. equities sold off, with the Dow down 1.6%, the S&P 500 down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, while U.S. crude moved above $80 and Brent above $85.
Why it matters: Energy-driven inflation fears are already feeding through to rates and equities.
Market angle: The tape is trading as a war/inflation shock, not as a clean growth or AI-led session.
Headline: Broadcom is the key earnings carryover, while Costco remains relevant but secondary.
Why it matters: Broadcom’s AI revenue and guidance keep it central for semiconductor and AI sentiment.
Market angle: In a fragile tape, strong AI-linked earnings matter more because leadership breadth is already narrow.
Headline: Freight conditions are tightening, with airfreight disrupted and Asia-to-U.S. pricing jumping sharply according to the document.
Why it matters: Logistics stress adds another inflationary and growth-negative layer.
Market angle: Supply-chain and transport names remain exposed if regional disruption persists.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: The SEC moved to dismiss its civil fraud lawsuit against Justin Sun, while a previously affiliated company agreed to pay a $10M fine without admitting or denying wrongdoing.
Why it matters: That frames this as another sign of how much the U.S. policy backdrop for crypto has changed under Trump.
Market angle: Regulatory easing supports industry sentiment at the margin, especially for politically connected or high-beta names.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Nvidia and other chipmakers came under pressure after Bloomberg reported draft Trump administration rules that would restrict AI chip shipments without U.S. approval.
Why it matters: This adds fresh policy risk to one of the market’s most important leadership groups.
Market angle: Even with Broadcom’s strong numbers, the AI trade is now balancing earnings strength against export-control risk.
Closing Market Read
The Middle East war widened further on March 6, with fresh Israeli strikes on Tehran and Hezbollah-linked targets in Beirut, while missile and drone threats continued across the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Azerbaijan were pulled deeper into the risk map, confirming this is no longer a contained Israel-Iran conflict but a broader regional confrontation.
China is still pushing for de-escalation, but for markets the immediate issue is energy, shipping disruption, and inflation risk into today’s 14:30 U.S. data block.
Hold: if BTC holds 70k and ETH holds 2040, the structure can stabilize and the market can still treat the current weakness as a retrace inside range, even with headline volatility elevated.
Break: if BTC loses 70k and ETH loses 2040, then the failed reclaim plus the defensive USDT read argue for a clearer risk-off extension.
👋 Goodbye
That is the map for today: war headlines, oil, yields, and 14:30 U.S. data. Stay tactical and let the levels decide.