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Morning from Therwil — markets are trying to stabilize after last week’s AI-driven whiplash, with dip-buying showing up in US tech and a clear bid in Japan equities. Today’s focus is clean: US Retail Sales (and core) plus a US 3Y auction, while crypto continues to digest a heavy drawdown with “range” conditions still the base case.
Highlights
Today
US stocks pushed higher again, with tech leading a rebound after last week’s sharp selloff; Dow closed at another record.
Japan’s Nikkei surged to a record after PM Sanae Takaichi’s snap-election win; yen stronger and yields higher.
Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on BTC miners: CIFR/WULF Overweight, MARA Underweight (data center “infrastructure” vs pure BTC beta framing).
Macro risk event: US Retail Sales + Core Retail Sales (Zurich 20:30) and US Treasury 3Y auction (Zurich 19:00).
Risk mood check: crypto sentiment remains Extreme Fear (9); BTC/ETH short-term trend still technically heavy (RSI low-30s; negative MACD hist).
This Week
Delayed January US jobs report due Wednesday (key for rates and risk).
Earnings tape stays busy (notably HOOD, LYFT today after close; and COIN earnings Thursday on your radar).
Next systematic date to keep in view: monthly options expiration — Fri, 20 Feb 2026.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro
Safe Havens & Rates
📉 Technical
Global Indices
Index | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY — S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 693.95 | +0.48% | -0.22% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
QQQ — Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 614.32 | +0.77% | -2.66% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
Dow Jones — Industrial Average | ^DJI | 50135.87 | +0.04% | +2.31% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
Russell 2000 — Small Caps USA | ^RUT | 2689.05 | +0.70% | +0.84% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
DAX — Germany | ^GDAXI | 25014.87 | +1.19% | +0.48% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
Nikkei 225 — Japan | ^N225 | 57729.98 | +2.42% | +8.19% | Moderate directional bias; no extreme signal. |
FTSE 100 — UK | ^FTSE | 10386.20 | +0.16% | +1.75% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
Hang Seng — Hong Kong | ^HSI | 27151.76 | +0.46% | -2.43% | Contained move; relatively stable index environment. |
Taiwan Weighted — Taiwan | ^TWII | 32930.87 | +1.62% | +0.39% | Moderate directional bias; no extreme signal. |
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 9 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-10)
Yesterday: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-09)
7-day average: 10.1
Δ vs yesterday: -5.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -1.1
Quick read: Extreme Fear remains the baseline risk tone.
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT
Today: 1.61 (2026-02-10)
Yesterday: 1.69 (change: -0.07)
7-day average: 2.16
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-03 | 2.30 |
2026-02-04 | 2.85 |
2026-02-05 | 2.89 |
2026-02-06 | 2.59 |
2026-02-07 | 1.85 |
2026-02-08 | 1.63 |
2026-02-09 | 1.69 |
2026-02-10 | 1.61 |
ETHUSDT
Today: 1.58 (2026-02-10)
Yesterday: 1.95 (change: -0.37)
7-day average: 2.25
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-03 | 2.58 |
2026-02-04 | 2.82 |
2026-02-05 | 2.96 |
2026-02-06 | 2.67 |
2026-02-07 | 2.06 |
2026-02-08 | 1.74 |
2026-02-09 | 1.95 |
2026-02-10 | 1.58 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 17.36 | -14.78% | +6.24% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.79% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: slightly defensive, partial liquidity bias. |
Global Crypto RSI (Top 50 ex-stables)
Basket average RSI: 27.7
Quick read: depressed RSI across the basket (washed-out conditions).
🔗 On-chain
On-chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on lean. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -18.43% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.29% of total market cap |
Derivatives Activity (CoinGecko) | Derivatives turnover: 2.09x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune): BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h volume: 10.22B USD · 30D daily avg: 12.52B USD · % vs 30D: -18.43%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko): Spot vol 24h (top CEX): 31.44B USD (sum of 10 exchanges) · Total market cap (CG): 2.44T USD · Spot turnover: 1.29%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko): OI total: 85.64B USD · Derivatives vol 24h: 178.91B USD (sum of 10 derivative exchanges) · Derivatives turnover: 2.09x · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 5.69x
Funding (Binance Futures): BTC -0.0088% per period · ETH 0.0043% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): 0.05 GWEI (very low activity / low congestion)
📊 Top Movers
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): Daily is still indecision and the base case is a range; support is 70,138, and bulls need reclaim/accept above 76,519 (EMA16) with a next push toward 78,200 (EMA20) as the pivot for any meaningful relief.
ETH: Similar “middle-of-range” tape; support is 2,105, reclaim above 2,370 (EMA16) is the first requirement, with 2,451 (EMA20) as the pivot that decides whether this is just a bounce or the start of a cleaner squeeze.
USDT.D: Usdt: we had yesterday a lot of intrady move, to close flat, nothing changes prices will range for a while to digest last week strong move.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: If BTC holds 70,138 and reclaims 76,519, then acceptance toward 78,200 opens; ETH needs to hold 2,105 and reclaim 2,370 with follow-through toward 2,451 — confirmed only if USDT.D fails/rejects at 7.79%.
Bear case: If BTC loses 70,138 and cannot regain 76,519, the range breaks down and pressure remains; ETH losing 2,105 while failing at 2,370–2,451 keeps the downside path active — confirmed if USDT.D closes above 7.79% to add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Tue, 10 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
Time conversion note: ForexFactory timestamps are shown in ET → Zurich = +6h.
⭐ Highest-impact market movers (today)
🇺🇸 20:30 Zurich — Retail Sales (m/m) + Core Retail Sales (m/m)
🇨🇳 (Tentative, China local release date = Feb 10) — M2 Money Supply (y/y) + New Loans
Economic calendar (by time, Zurich CET)
Asia / Early Europe
🇬🇧 07:01 — BRC Retail Sales Monitor (y/y)
🇦🇺 07:30 — NAB Business Confidence
🇯🇵 13:00 — Prelim Machine Tool Orders (y/y)
🇨🇳 (Tentative) — M2 Money Supply (y/y); New Loans
US session
🇺🇸 18:00 — NFIB Small Business Index
🇺🇸 (Tentative) — ADP Weekly Employment Change
🇺🇸 20:30 — Retail Sales (m/m) + Core Retail Sales (m/m)
🏦 Bond auctions (high relevance for rates)
🇺🇸 19:00 — US Treasury 3-Year Note Auction (typically 13:00 ET)
Also on today’s schedule: US 6-Week Bill Auction
🧾 Earnings (global, today)
Pre-market US (results expected before the open)
🇺🇸 KO, SPGI, CVS, DUK, MAR, SPOT, ECL, RACE, DDOG, XYL, FISV, BP (among others)
After the close (US)
🇺🇸 HOOD (Robinhood) — after close
🇺🇸 LYFT (Lyft) — after close
🧷 Futures & options expirations
No major “headline” expiry flagged specifically for today; next big systematic date: monthly options expiration — Fri, 20 Feb 2026.
📌 Revision / “watch closely” notes
US inflation & labor prints tend to be the most market-sensitive inputs into Fed expectations (CPI, NFP, Core PCE) — keep them on the front page of your week even when today’s data is “only” retail sales.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Wall Street’s hunt for cheaper stocks is going global, with flows moving into international equity ETFs and leadership from markets like Japan and parts of Europe/EM.
Why it matters: If the “US-only” concentration trade cools, cross-asset correlations can shift and equity leadership can broaden beyond US megacap tech.
Market angle: Watch whether USD weakness + relative valuation rotation continues to support ex-US equities, even as US indices sit near records.
Headline: Japan equities hit fresh records after PM Sanae Takaichi’s snap-election win; yen strengthened and bond yields rose.
Why it matters: Japan risk-on leadership can spill into global cyclicals and pressure “safe” positioning if yen strength persists.
Market angle: Strong Nikkei + rising yields is supportive for global risk tone, but it can also tighten global financial conditions at the margin.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Investors are bracing for more turbulence after a violent AI-linked selloff and rebound; focus shifts to delayed US jobs report and fresh inflation figures.
Why it matters: Labor + inflation data will reset the rates path, which matters most for tech duration and high-beta risk.
Market angle: Today’s Retail Sales is the immediate catalyst; bond auction pricing can amplify moves in rates and equity multiples into the close.
Headline: ECB watch — Kazimir said a “major inflation shift” would be needed to reopen the rate-change debate (hawkish lean).
Why it matters: Keeps policy expectations anchored and reduces odds of dovish repricing without clear inflation evidence.
Market angle: Euro rates stability can support risk assets indirectly, but a hawkish tone limits “easy policy” tailwinds.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: US stocks moved higher Monday; Dow hit another record (50,135.87), Nasdaq +0.9%, S&P +0.5% near record; tech led the rebound.
Why it matters: Confirms dip-buying is still alive, but the market is fragile around the AI capex narrative and “profit delivery” anxiety.
Market angle: If Retail Sales is hot, rates can spike and hit duration again; if soft, the “lower rates help tech” reflex may return quickly.
Headline: Oracle jumped 9.6% after last week’s plunge; investors rotated back into software and AI giants that were beaten up.
Why it matters: Software is the epicenter of the AI “disruption vs monetization” debate — sharp reversals signal positioning is crowded and twitchy.
Market angle: Expect continued two-way volatility; sustained upside likely needs calmer rates + clearer earnings follow-through.
Headline: Amazon shares slid 5.6% (about $133B market value) after plans to spend $200B on AI-related costs this year.
Why it matters: Reinforces investor concern about AI over-investment and the gap between capex and realized profits.
Market angle: AI capex headlines remain a volatility catalyst for megacap, credit, and “AI-adjacent” software multiples.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Morgan Stanley began bitcoin miner coverage: Cipher Mining (CIFR) and TeraWulf (WULF) Overweight; Marathon Digital (MARA) Underweight, framing certain sites as data-center “infrastructure” assets vs pure BTC exposure.
Why it matters: If miners are valued on contracted data-center cash flows, equity sensitivity to BTC price can compress — changing how “miners” trade as proxies.
Market angle: Watch for dispersion: names with credible leasing/contract paths can re-rate differently than high-beta BTC treasury/mining models.
Headline: 2nd meeting between crypto and banks to discuss stablecoin yield concerns.
Why it matters: Banking access and stablecoin mechanics (especially yield features) sit at the center of future on/off ramps and regulatory posture.
Market angle: Any tightening narrative tends to lift USDT.D risk filter and compress alt beta; any “framework clarity” tends to do the opposite.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Investors remain nervous about widespread AI disruption and whether the massive AI build-out will deliver “sky-high profits,” despite Friday’s sharp rebound.
Why it matters: This is the core equity narrative driver right now — it impacts software, credit, and capex-heavy megacap simultaneously.
Market angle: Expect continued volatility clusters around earnings + macro prints; risk can rotate quickly from “AI winners” to “AI disruption victims.”
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Bitcoin recovered to about $70,800 after dramatic recent swings, but moves were muted vs TradFi volatility.
Why it matters: Suggests crypto is still in “digest and range” mode while equities debate AI capex and macro repricing.
Market angle: With BTC/ETH technically heavy, confirmation comes from USDT.D 7.79% and whether BTC can reclaim the first EMA shelf.
Closing Market Read
Range is still the base case after yesterday’s intraday chop-to-flat, while TradFi tries to stabilize after last week’s AI-capex shock. Today’s volatility pivot is US Retail Sales (20:30 Zurich) plus the US 3Y auction (19:00) — either can move rates fast and spill into crypto beta.
Hold outcome: BTC holds 70,138 and starts reclaiming 76,519 (EMA16); ETH holds 2,105 and pushes back toward 2,370 (EMA16) — this needs USDT.D to fail/reject at 7.79%.
Break outcome: BTC loses 70,138 and can’t recover the 76,519–78,200 shelf; ETH loses 2,105 and fails at 2,370–2,451 — confirmed if USDT.D closes above 7.79% and risk-off pressure builds.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full board for today. Stay mechanical around the data prints, keep sizing honest in range conditions, and let USDT.D 7.79% be your risk switch.