🔦 Market Risk Thermometer – 2025-12-11
🌐 Macro
🌐 Macro – Safe-Haven Assets & Rates
(Updated: 2025-12-11 06:57)
Asset | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | GC=F | 4234.00 | +0.90% | -0.13% | Moderate safe-haven demand. |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | ^TNX | 4.16% | -0.53% | +3.66% | Yields in a moderate range, no extreme signal. |
📉 Technical
Crypto
BTC – Bitcoin
Asset | Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC | 90304.3300 | -1.86% | -1.93% | 44.8 | 91065.5955 | 91475.2088 | 96556.1096 | 104225.1179 | 760.9234 | 3.7 |
Comment: Clearly bearish in the short term within a broader bearish trend (price < EMA200, short EMAs below long EMAs). RSI in neutral zone (44.8), balanced momentum. MACD hist positive (760.9234), bullish momentum.
ETH – Ethereum
Asset | Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ETH | 3213.3200 | -3.33% | +2.56% | 52.7 | 3124.0205 | 3125.2271 | 3311.6167 | 3434.4022 | 56.9763 | 3.1 |
Comment: Clearly bearish in the short term within a broader bearish trend (price < EMA200, short EMAs below long EMAs). RSI in neutral zone (52.7), balanced momentum. MACD hist positive (56.9763), bullish momentum.
SOL – Solana
Asset | Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SOL | 131.1800 | -3.73% | -5.63% | 41.6 | 136.0132 | 137.2778 | 151.6047 | 172.5523 | 1.2089 | 3.7 |
Comment: Clearly bearish in the short term within a broader bearish trend (price < EMA200, short EMAs below long EMAs). RSI in neutral zone (41.6), balanced momentum. MACD hist positive (1.2089), bullish momentum.
Global indices
(Updated: 2025-12-11 06:57)
Index | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY – S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 687.57 | +0.66% | +1.16% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
QQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 627.61 | +0.41% | +2.17% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
Dow Jones – Industrial Average | ^DJI | 48057.75 | +1.05% | +1.33% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
Russell 2000 – Small Caps USA | ^RUT | 2559.61 | +1.32% | +2.96% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
DAX – Germany | ^GDAXI | 24130.14 | -0.13% | +1.52% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
Nikkei 225 – Japan | ^N225 | 50113.32 | -0.97% | -0.28% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
FTSE 100 – UK | ^FTSE | 9655.50 | +0.14% | -0.40% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
Hang Seng – Hong Kong | ^HSI | 25490.05 | -0.20% | -1.43% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
Taiwan Weighted – Taiwan | ^TWII | 28024.75 | -1.32% | +1.44% | Contained move, relatively stable environment in indices. |
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 29 – Fear (2025-12-11)
Yesterday: 26 – Fear (2025-12-10)
7-day average: 24.0
Δ vs yesterday: +3.0 | Δ vs 7D average: +5.0
Positioning – Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
=== BTCUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D) ===
Today: 1.76 – 2025-12-11
Yesterday: 1.50 – change vs yesterday: +0.27
Last 7-day average: 1.81
Date Ratio
2025-12-04 1.46
2025-12-05 1.45
2025-12-06 1.90
2025-12-07 1.92
2025-12-08 2.07
2025-12-09 2.11
2025-12-10 1.50
2025-12-11 1.76
=== ETHUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D) ===
Today: 1.20 – 2025-12-11
Yesterday: 1.16 – change vs yesterday: +0.04
Last 7-day average: 1.70
Date Ratio
2025-12-04 1.68
2025-12-05 1.56
2025-12-06 2.01
2025-12-07 1.96
2025-12-08 2.11
2025-12-09 1.86
2025-12-10 1.16
2025-12-11 1.20
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick take |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 15.77 | -6.85% | -1.93% | Moderate volatility, relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 6.05% | N/A | N/A | Low–moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on bias, reasonable balance between risk and liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, ex-stables)
Average RSI of the basket: 43.0
Quick take: global RSI 43.0, score ≈ 2.50/5 (1 = more neutral/risk-on, 5 = more overbought / higher correction risk).
🔗 On-chain
🔗 On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Score (1–5) | Quick take |
|---|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | 3.07 | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
Global DEX Activity (DeFiLlama) | 3.00 | +2.28% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | 1.50 | Spot turnover: 1.40% of mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | 3.40 | Derivatives turnover: 2.15x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | 3.00 | Funding close to neutral. |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
Global DEX (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 11.97B USD · 30D daily average: 11.71B USD · % vs 30D: +2.28%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
24h spot volume (top CEX): 44.54B USD (10 exchanges summed)
Total market cap (CG): 3.17T USD · Spot turnover: 1.40%
Global Derivatives (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 138.24B USD · 24h derivatives volume: 297.34B USD (10 derivatives exchanges summed)
Derivatives turnover: 2.15x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 6.68x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0026% per period · ETH funding: 0.0069% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.13 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
🏦 Institutional
📊 Top Movers (CMC Top 100)
Based exclusively on percent_change_24h from CoinMarketCap. Stablecoins filtered out.
🏆 Top 10 Winners – 24h
# | Symbol | Name | Price (USD) | % 24h | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | SEI | Sei | 0.1419 | ⬆️ +2.19% | 904.03M |
2 | XMR | Monero | 403.1846 | ⬆️ +1.96% | 7.44B |
3 | XDC | XDC Network | 0.0497 | ⬆️ +1.06% | 920.30M |
4 | PAXG | PAX Gold | 4,218.6812 | ⬆️ +0.06% | 1.44B |
5 | XAUt | Tether Gold | 4,211.6346 | ⬆️ +0.05% | 1.59B |
6 | RLUSD | Ripple USD | 1.0000 | ⬆️ +0.03% | 1.03B |
7 | USDG | Global Dollar | 0.9999 | ⬆️ +0.03% | 1.39B |
8 | USD1 | World Liberty Financial USD | 0.9993 | ⬆️ +0.01% | 2.71B |
9 | USDe | Ethena USDe | 0.9995 | ⬆️ +0.01% | 6.55B |
10 | TRX | TRON | 0.2797 | ⬇️ -0.06% | 26.48B |
📉 Top 10 Losers – 24h
# | Symbol | Name | Price (USD) | % 24h | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | PENGU | Pudgy Penguins | 0.0112 | ⬇️ -10.75% | 701.42M |
2 | DASH | Dash | 46.2454 | ⬇️ -9.50% | 578.70M |
3 | PUMP | Pump.fun | 0.0028 | ⬇️ -8.98% | 980.51M |
4 | ETHFI | ether.fi | 0.7978 | ⬇️ -8.77% | 485.61M |
5 | ZEC | Zcash | 406.7663 | ⬇️ -8.77% | 6.68B |
6 | SPX | SPX6900 | 0.5910 | ⬇️ -8.76% | 550.19M |
7 | ENA | Ethena | 0.2510 | ⬇️ -8.75% | 1.93B |
8 | AVAX | Avalanche | 13.4345 | ⬇️ -7.91% | 5.77B |
9 | FIL | Filecoin | 1.4010 | ⬇️ -7.61% | 1.02B |
10 | IP | Story | 2.0083 | ⬇️ -7.53% | 667.14M |
GM anon 👋
Here’s today’s macro & crypto briefing for Thursday, 11 December 2025 –
🏛️ Macro & Politics
1️⃣ FOMC Special Coverage – Cut, Fracture, and a Higher Bar for 2025
Headline: The Fed cut again – but this is not a green light for easy money. It’s a divided committee, under political pressure, walking a very narrow path between inflation and a weakening labor market.
The decision
Move:
Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75%, a three-year low.
This is the third straight cut, totaling 1.75 pp over the last 15 months.
Vote:
9–3 split – the first time in 6 years we see three dissents:
Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) & Jeff Schmid (Kansas City): against any cut (too dovish, inflation risk).
Stephen Miran (Governor): wanted a 50 bps cut (labor risk, recession risk).
On top of that, six of 19 officials penciled in a year-end rate above the level before yesterday’s cut – meaning several participants either opposed the move or only went along reluctantly.
In a parallel piece you see the same fracture: seven officials (dissenters + quiet objectors in the projections) effectively thought policy should be tighter than the outcome. That’s roughly one-third of the committee signaling resistance to further easing.
Powell’s message: “Cut now, but don’t expect a cutting cycle”
Key points from Powell’s press conference and remarks:
On the labor market
“Downside risks to employment have risen.”
He suggested that after revisions, job gains since April could be close to zero or slightly negative.
The unemployment rate is now 4.4%, and the Fed dropped the line that it “remained low” from the statement – subtle but important.
On inflation
Inflation is still “somewhat elevated” and recent readings are higher as goods inflation has picked up.
Powell repeatedly stressed that the Fed will deliver 2% inflation, even with tariffs in the mix.
He framed the tariffs as one-time price increases, saying that if you strip them out, inflation is “in the low 2s,” but the official metrics are still above target.
On the policy stance
Rates are now in a “plausible range of neutral” – i.e., no longer clearly restrictive, but not clearly stimulative either.
He emphasized the Fed is now “well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves” – that’s code for: the bar for new cuts is higher.
The 2026 GDP growth forecast was revised up, reflecting that the Fed still sees a reasonably resilient economy, not an imminent crash.
On future cuts
The dot plot shows a majority of officials see no more than one cut in 2025, and seven see none at all.
Powell didn’t close the door on January, but clearly doesn’t want markets to price a full easing cycle without fresh labor weakness or cleaner inflation data.
Summarizing one tweet-style recap of Powell:
Downside risks to employment have risen
Inflation “remains somewhat elevated”
Rates are in a “plausible range of neutral”
GDP growth for 2026 revised up
Goods inflation has picked up
Three dissents – the divide at the Fed is growing
Committee fracture: Hawks vs doves, and the risk of a policy error
The committee is split not on whether there’s risk of a mistake – but which mistake to fear more:
Doves (labor-focused)
See a labor market that is softening despite 1.75 pp of cuts.
Argue that if the Fed waits for “proof” of weakness, it will be too late – unemployment spikes are hard to reverse.
Support Powell’s “insurance cut” logic that he laid out initially at Jackson Hole.
Hawks (inflation-focused)
Believe the economy is stronger than the headline data suggests and fear that the Fed is cutting into strength.
Point out that the Fed has now missed the 2% inflation target on the high side for five consecutive years, raising the risk of de-anchored expectations.
Fear a replay of the 1970s stop-and-go pattern that let inflation get entrenched.
Powell is trying to walk a line where he leans dovish on labor, but keeps the hawks onboard with hawkish forward guidance and a higher bar for further easing. The sheer number of dissents and “quiet objections” in the projections shows he’s doing this with the thinnest internal support of his tenure.
Political pressure: Trump wants lower rates and a new chair
Overlaying this is explicit political pressure from President Trump:
Trump has said he wants “much lower” rates and is openly looking for “somebody that will be honest with interest rates” as Powell’s successor (Powell’s term ends in May).
He has already begun interviewing candidates, with Kevin Hassett viewed as a front-runner – though Hassett himself has said that if inflation is rising (e.g. 2.5% → 4%), you “can’t cut rates then.”
The administration has:
Tried to remove Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee – a case now headed to the Supreme Court.
Floated the idea of removing other Biden-nominated governors on procedural grounds.
Questioned the legitimacy of some regional Fed presidents, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting residency requirements that would retroactively disqualify several sitting presidents.
One strategist compared the administration’s attacks on Fed governance to “raptors in Jurassic Park testing the fences” – probing for weak points in the institutional safeguards around monetary policy.
Despite this, the structure of the FOMC still matters:
12 voters at any given meeting:
7 governors (presidential appointees)
New York Fed president
4 rotating regional Fed presidents
Many of the regional presidents are not political appointees, which limits how far any White House can push.
Bottom line on politics:
Even if Trump installs a more dovish chair, he still gets only one vote. Without a weaker economy or cleaner inflation backdrop, sustained aggressive cuts are unlikely without a fight.
Market reaction
The market read the combination of cut + cautious Powell as mildly dovish versus expectations:
Equities:
Dow +1% (~+497 pts) – best Fed-day performance since 2023
S&P 500 +0.7%, near record high
Nasdaq +0.3%
Russell 2000 +1.3%, closing at a fresh record – classic cyclical/risk-on response
Dow Transports +2.7%, signaling optimism about real-economy demand.
Rates:
10Y Treasury yield at ~4.163%, down from the intraday highs but still far from a full “easing cycle” pricing.
Metals:
Silver hit another record high at $60.37/oz – consistent with “monetary hedge” behavior.
Trading take:
For now, the Fed is signaling:
✅ Cuts are on the table as insurance against labor weakness
❌ A rapid easing cycle is not
For macro & crypto, this keeps us in a messy middle regime:
Real yields not collapsing (no full “liquidity wave”),
But policy is no longer clearly restrictive either – enough to support risk assets on dips, not enough to justify blind beta.
2️⃣ Geopolitics – U.S.–Japan Show of Force vs China
Story: The U.S. flew two B-52 bombers in formation with Japanese F-35s and F-15s over the Sea of Japan – a deliberate signal to both China and Russia after their joint air patrol near Japan’s southern islands.
Japan’s Defense Ministry framed it as a clear message against “unilateral changes to the status quo by force.”
This comes after Chinese anger at PM Sanae Takaichi’s comments that Japan could be pulled into a Taiwan conflict to defend itself or allies like the U.S.
Beijing has:
Threatened economic measures (imports, tourism, seafood)
Stepped up military maneuvers, including fighters locking radar on Japanese jets and repeated incursions near the Senkaku Islands.
Washington is trying to maintain a trade détente with China, but this sortie is a reminder that security commitments in Asia are not softening.
Macro angle:
This keeps a structural risk premium over the broader Asia complex – particularly anything tied to Taiwan, Japan defense industry, shipping, and semis. It doesn’t move markets day-to-day yet, but it is part of the long-term tail risk that matters for allocation.
💼 Economy & Business
3️⃣ Oracle & the AI Trade – Vol Crash or Overreaction?
Oracle (ORCL) became the weak link in the AI chain after earnings:
Stock is down ~11% after hours, dragging the broader AI trade lower and pushing equity futures down about 1%.
Headline numbers: earnings came in slightly below expectations.
But under the hood, Oracle raised 2026 CapEx guidance by $15B, doubling down on AI infrastructure and positioning itself as a long-term AI compute backbone.
The Kobeissi Letter summarized the situation as a market that might be over-punishing heavy AI CapEx, despite the fact that the company is clearly playing the long game in a capex-intensive AI arms race.
Macro/AI angle:
Short term: a miss from an AI bellwether hits growth sentiment, especially in high-multiple software & infra names.
Medium term: increased CapEx is exactly what is needed to keep the AI build-out going – which is bullish for chips, data centers, and infra, even if it compresses Oracle’s margins short term.
🤖 Tech, AI & Policy
4️⃣ U.S. Money Floods into China AI – While Congress Tightens the Screws
Despite geopolitical noise, U.S. investors are aggressively reallocating into Chinese AI and tech:
Performance:
Alibaba is up >80% YTD, at a four-year high, and plans to invest $53B over three years into AI infra and AGI.
Tencent and Baidu are both up nearly 50% this year, powered by large-language model deployment and applied AI.
Flows:
Funds by Vanguard, BlackRock, Fidelity have increased stakes in Alibaba’s Hong Kong shares.
China tech ETFs have ballooned:
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF grew by $1.4B to nearly $9B.
Invesco China Technology ETF has more than doubled to nearly $3B.
U.S. investors now account for a growing share of flows into these structures.
At the same time, Washington is tightening legal constraints:
The latest National Defense Authorization Act gives Trump authority to expand restrictions on U.S. capital into Chinese high-tech sectors (including AI, hypersonic weapons) and to require more transparency on how U.S. investors fund Chinese AI.
Biden’s earlier rules already ban investments into certain private Chinese firms in quantum and high-end AI; Congress is now arming Trump to go further if he wants.
Still, the public equity channel remains open, and that’s where most of the action is:
Public-market investors are chasing valuation discounts – Chinese AI & internet names trade at much lower P/E multiples than U.S. counterparts like Alphabet.
Some U.S. endowments and global investors that had abandoned China post-COVID and post-regulatory crackdown are quietly considering a return.
VC flows into private China tech remain structurally lower (from $16B → $830M for China-focused USD funds), with much of the new money coming from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia rather than traditional U.S. LPs.
For macro and crypto:
This is another leg of the global AI capital arms race.
Any future tightening of U.S. outbound rules is a potential shock event for:
China tech indices
U.S. asset managers with large CN tech exposure
And indirectly, AI-beta proxies in crypto (AI tokens, infra plays), which trade off global AI risk appetite.
🪙 Crypto & Digital Assets –
Fed: “Insurance cut” with a higher bar for more
Keeps real yields from collapsing, but reduces tail risk of a too-tight Fed.
For BTC/ETH, this is consistent with a choppy but constructive environment: dips supported by liquidity expectations, but no “QE-style melt-up” yet.
AI equity repricing (Oracle, China AI)
Short-term, AI-beta and “future tech” risk is more fragile → can spill into high-beta crypto segments (AI tokens, small caps).
Long-term, the massive CapEx + infra build is a structural bull case for compute, bandwidth, and decentralized infrastructure narratives in crypto.
U.S.–Japan–China tensions
Keeps the “non-zero war risk” in East Asia alive – one of the key structural arguments for non-sovereign assets (BTC, gold) on a 5–10 year horizon.
🔚 Wrap-up
So, summarizing today:
The Fed cut, but what really matters is the fracture and the higher bar for future easing. This is not 2019 all over again – it’s a much more constrained, politically pressured Fed.
Equities celebrated the near-term risk reduction, but the dots and dissents tell you the easing runway is short unless the labor data deteriorates sharply.
AI remains the capital magnet globally, with flows into China AI even as Congress sets up additional restrictions – the classic tension between policy and profit.
Geopolitically, the U.S.–Japan B-52 show of force keeps the Indo-Pacific risk map hot in the background.
Talk tomorrow – keep your risk tight and your thesis tighter. 🧠📈
Thursday, 11 December 2025 – Key Economic Events
🔴 Top tier focus today
🇨🇭 SWISS NATIONAL BANK – Rate decision & presser (HUGE for CHF, EUR, risk)
09:30 – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment & Policy Rate (Q4)
SNB official schedule: press release at 09:30, news conference at 10:00. (snb.ch)
Market expects rate to stay at 0.00% (already confirmed as 0.00% on calendars).
10:00 – SNB Press Conference (Schlegel + team)
Key for forward guidance, FX comments and any nuance about the franc after yesterday’s dovish Fed + renewed T-bill buying. (Reuters)
🇺🇸 US – Inflation pipeline & labor
14:30 – PPI (Nov) – headline & core, plus initial & continuing jobless claims, and trade balance cluster. (RTTNews)
Why it matters:
First read on post-Fed-cut inflation pressure at the producer level.
Claims: are we finally seeing cracks in the labor market or not?
Trade balance feeds into Q4 GDP tracking.
🇨🇭 / 🇪🇺 Rates & growth – Europe morning
08:00 – 🇩🇪 German Import Prices (m/m) & Retail Sales (m/m) (ewfpro.com)
08:45 – 🇫🇷 Consumer Spending (m/m) & Prelim GDP (q/q) (France) (ewfpro.com)
09:00 – 🇨🇭 KOF Economic Barometer (leading Swiss activity indicator) (ewfpro.com)
🇺🇸 / 🇮🇹 Sovereign bond supply – key auctions
~11:00 – 🇮🇹 Medium- to long-term BTP/BOT auctions (incl. 12-month BOT + 3-year and longer BTPs) – supply into a post-Fed, lower-yield environment. (mef.gov.it)
17:30 – 🇺🇸 UST 4-week & 8-week Bill auctions (11:30 ET → 17:30 Zurich). (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
17:30 – 🇺🇸 UST 13-week & 26-week Bill auctions (regular weekly T-bill supply). (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
19:00 – 🇺🇸 20-year Treasury Bond (re-opening) + 5-year TIPS (re-opening) (13:00 ET → 19:00 Zurich). (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
Context: all of this comes one day after the Fed announced a new $40bn/month T-bill purchase program to ease money-market strains, effectively re-expanding the balance sheet. (Reuters)
🧭 Detailed economic calendar (Zurich time)
🇪🇺 Europe & 🇨🇭 Switzerland (morning)
08:00 – 🇩🇪 Germany
Import Prices (m/m)
Retail Sales (m/m)
Medium impact – feeds into inflation and consumption trend in the euro area’s core. (ewfpro.com)
08:45 – 🇫🇷 France
Consumer Spending (m/m)
Prelim GDP (q/q) – important for eurozone growth narrative, but subject to revision (see revision watchlist). (ewfpro.com)
09:00 – 🇨🇭 Switzerland
KOF Economic Barometer – composite of 219 indicators, good high-frequency proxy for Swiss cycle. (ewfpro.com)
09:30 – 🇨🇭 SNB Monetary Policy Assessment & Policy Rate
Expected: hold at 0.00% after a year of cuts taking rates to zero. (snb.ch)
10:00 – 🇨🇭 SNB Press Conference
Focus:
Any pushback on CHF strength.
Tone relative to the dovish Fed and fresh US liquidity operations. (Reuters)
Late morning – 🇪🇺 periphery / ECB
🇪🇺 Eurogroup meetings – potential headlines on fiscal stance & EU growth. (Investing.com India)
🇮🇹 Industrial Production (YoY, MoM) (Oct)
🇬🇷 Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)
🇳🇱 Dutch Trade Balance (Oct)
🇵🇹, 🇱🇻 Trade balances (Portugal, Latvia)
🇮🇹 Quarterly Unemployment Rate
🇮🇹 12-Month BOT Auction & 3-Year BTP Auction – Italy’s funding costs & BTP-Bund spread in focus. (Investing.com India)
🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde – speech – risk of headlines on rate path, balance sheet, and fiscal risks. (Investing.com India)
🇺🇸 US & 🇨🇦 North America (afternoon Zurich)
14:30 – 🇺🇸 United States
PPI (Producer Price Index, Nov) – headline & core.
Initial Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims.
Trade Balance (Oct). (RTTNews)
Big picture: markets are recalibrating after yesterday’s 25bp Fed cut + dovish tone, and the announcement of renewed T-bill purchases. Today’s data either reinforce or challenge the idea of further cuts in 2026. (Reuters)
14:30 – 🇨🇦 Canada
Trade Balance (Oct) – relevant for CAD and global trade pulse. (RTTNews)
17:30 – 🇺🇸 US Treasury bill auctions
4-Week & 8-Week Bills – $85bn and ~$80bn on the schedule for today’s auctions. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
13- & 26-Week Bills & 6-Week Bill also auctioned today per Q4 tentative schedule (same window). (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
19:00 – 🇺🇸 US long-end and TIPS
20-Year Bond (re-opening)
5-Year TIPS (re-opening) – important for real-yield and breakeven inflation curves. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
🌏 EM & Rest of World
🇦🇷 Argentina – CPI (Dec 2025 release window today)
Listed on Moody’s Analytics calendar – critical for watching post-reform inflation dynamics. (economy.com)
🇧🇷 Brazil – Retail Sales Index
Monthly print today; key for Brazil growth & BCB policy expectations. (economy.com)
🇲🇽 Mexico – New tariff package on Asian imports
Not a scheduled data point but high-impact policy event: Mexico’s Senate just approved tariff hikes up to 50% on imports from China, India, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, effective 2026, covering autos, parts, textiles, steel, etc. (Reuters)
This will feed into trade rerouting / nearshoring narrative and could matter a lot for Asian exporters & Mexico-related equity trades.
🇨🇳 China – Macro narrative (no big scheduled print today, but very relevant backdrop)
📈 Earnings – today’s key names (Zurich time)
No NVDA / AAPL / MSFT / TSLA / AMZN today – but we DO have big cap earnings in semis, retail & athleisure.
Before US open
🇺🇸 Ciena (CIEN) – Fiscal Q4 2025 / FY results
08:30 ET → 14:30 Zurich earnings call. (investor.ciena.com)
Optical networking / telecom capex bellwether – watch guidance for AI data-center backhaul & telco spending.
Price into earnings (latest): CIEN around 221.9 USD, up roughly +3.6% on the day, showing a positive bias ahead of the print.
🇨🇦 Dollarama – Q3 2025
Discount retail, good read-through on consumer resilience, pricing power, and traffic in lower-income cohorts. (MarketScreener)
After US close (evening Zurich)
🇺🇸 Broadcom (AVGO) – Q4 2025 (very important for semis & AI infra)
Earnings call at 17:00 ET → 23:00 Zurich. (investors.broadcom.com)
Massive AI, networking & custom silicon play; markets will key in on:
AI accelerator & networking demand,
Integration of earlier acquisitions,
Margin trajectory.
Into earnings, AVGO is trading around 413 USD (+1.6% on the day) – market leaning mildly positive.
🇺🇸 Costco (COST) – Q1 FY2026
After market close / 17:00 ET → 23:00 Zurich. (investor.costco.com)
Consensus: EPS around $4.24 on ~$67bn revenue.
Focus: membership fee income, traffic, and US consumer health.
COST is trading near 874 USD (-1.6% on the day) ahead of earnings.
🇺🇸 Lululemon (LULU) – Q3 2025 results
Financial results event today (after US close, typical). (corporate.lululemon.com)
Key focus: North America same-store sales, margin pressure, inventory, and international growth.
LULU trades around 187.6 USD (+2.9% on the day) going into the print.
Información sobre el mercado de valores para Broadcom Inc (AVGO)
Broadcom Inc es un equity en el mercado de USA.
El precio es 412.97 USD actualmente con una variación de 6.54 USD (0.02 %) respecto al cierre anterior. El último precio de apertura fue de 402.23 USD y el volumen intradía es de 31530976. El máximo intradía es de 414.48 USD y el mínimo intradía es de 399.9 USD.
La operación más reciente fue a las jueves, diciembre 11, 02:15:00 CET.
Note: Actual results, guidance details, and post-earnings stock reactions will only be knowable after these calls; right now we just have expectations and pre-earnings price action.
Bond auctions
🇺🇸 United States – UST supply (all times Zurich)
17:30 – 4-Week Bill (28-day), 8-Week Bill – regular Thursday auctions. (Investing.com)
17:30 – 13-Week & 26-Week Bills, plus 6-Week Bill – per Q4 tentative schedule. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
19:00 – 20-Year Bond (re-opening) + 5-Year TIPS (re-opening). (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
All of this interacts with the Fed’s just-announced restart of T-bill purchases (~$40bn), which should help absorb front-end supply and ease money-market stress. (Reuters)
🇮🇹 Italy – BTP/BOT auctions
~11:00 – 12-month BOT and 3-year / other medium-long BTPs as per Italian Treasury announcement for 11 December auction. (mef.gov.it)
Watch bid-to-cover & yields vs previous auctions for BTP-Bund spread signals.
🔁 Futures & options – expiration & roll
No major expiry exactly today, but:
We are in the December roll window for equity index futures: CME shows Dec 12 as a key roll date ahead of Dec 19 expiry (ESZ25, NQZ25, etc.). (CME Group)
Next major OPEX + Quadruple Witching:
Friday 19 December 2025 – stock options, index options, stock index futures, and single stock futures all expire. (TradeStation)
Market commentary today already flags positioning risks into Dec 19, particularly around S&P 500 strikes and CTA flows. (MarketWatch)
🌍 Other market-moving macro news
🇺🇸 Fed – Dovish cut + balance-sheet pivot
Yesterday: 25bp cut, guidance hinting at more cuts in 2026, and announcement of T-bill purchases from Dec 12 to address money-market strain. This pushed USD lower, yields down, and risk assets mixed. (Reuters)
🇨🇳 China – record trade surplus & IMF pressure
IMF + media focus on China’s ~$1T+ trade surplus, weak domestic demand, and pressure to boost consumption and address yuan / trade imbalances. (Reuters)
🇲🇽 Mexico – Tariff hikes on Asian imports
Mexico’s Senate approved significant new tariffs (up to 50%) on imports from China and other Asian countries starting 2026 – important for supply-chain & nearshoring trades. (Reuters)
🇺🇸/🇺🇸 Tech & AI complex
Yesterday’s disappointing Oracle earnings (already out) were cited as dragging AI-related risk sentiment, relevant for how markets trade into Broadcom & other AI names today. (Reuters)