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Morning from Therwil. Today is a high-volatility macro day with the rescheduled US January jobs report front and center, plus CPI/PPI prints referenced in the doc and a heavy tape of earnings + crypto regulation headlines.
Risk is already fragile (extreme fear + weak crypto technicals), so anything that shifts rate expectations or liquidity conditions can get amplified fast.
Highlights
Today
🇺🇸 14:30 — US Jobs Report (NFP + wages + unemployment): the main volatility trigger.
🇺🇸 CPI/PPI prints referenced (local release date today): CPI y/y and PPI y/y are listed with actual vs forecast.
🇺🇸 19:00 — US Treasury 10Y Note Auction ($42B): rate-sensitive risk check.
🇺🇸 Earnings pre-market led by MCD, plus TMUS/SHOP/NTES/VRT/HLT/KHC/GFS/HUM.
Policy + crypto headlines: White House stablecoin-yield talks stalled; LayerZero launches “Zero” chain with major partnerships; Goldman cuts BTC/ETH ETF holdings in Q4.
This Week
Delayed January jobs report + CPI focus: the week’s macro narrative is “consumer weakness + labor/cpi confirmation”.
Earnings digestion: financials under pressure; major single-stock reactions already visible (e.g., Spotify up big; Coca-Cola down).
Crypto market structure pressure: stablecoin yield restrictions remain a key unresolved blocker.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates (Updated: 2026-02-11 05:07)
📉 Technical
Global Indices
Index | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY — S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 692.12 | -0.26% | -0.47% | Contained move, relatively stable index environment. |
QQQ — Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 611.47 | -0.46% | -3.43% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signals. |
Dow Jones — Industrial Average | ^DJI | 50188.14 | +0.10% | +2.39% | Contained move, relatively stable index environment. |
Russell 2000 — Small Caps USA | ^RUT | 2679.77 | -0.35% | +0.99% | Contained move, relatively stable index environment. |
DAX — Germany | ^GDAXI | 24987.85 | -0.11% | +0.66% | Contained move, relatively stable index environment. |
Nikkei 225 — Japan | ^N225 | 57650.54 | +2.28% | +8.04% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signal. |
FTSE 100 — UK | ^FTSE | 10353.80 | -0.31% | +1.96% | Contained move, relatively stable index environment. |
Hang Seng — Hong Kong | ^HSI | 27289.59 | +0.39% | -2.43% | Contained move, relatively stable index environment. |
Taiwan Weighted — Taiwan | ^TWII | 33620.70 | +1.66% | +3.33% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signal. |
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 11 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-11)
Yesterday: 9 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-10)
7-day average: 9.7
Δ vs yesterday: +2.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +1.3
Quick read: Extreme Fear remains dominant.
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.87 — 2026-02-11
Yesterday: 1.61 — change vs yesterday: +0.26
7-day average: 2.02
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-04 | 2.85 |
2026-02-05 | 2.89 |
2026-02-06 | 2.59 |
2026-02-07 | 1.85 |
2026-02-08 | 1.63 |
2026-02-09 | 1.69 |
2026-02-10 | 1.61 |
2026-02-11 | 1.87 |
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.34 — 2026-02-11
Yesterday: 1.58 — change vs yesterday: +0.76
7-day average: 2.19
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-04 | 2.82 |
2026-02-05 | 2.96 |
2026-02-06 | 2.67 |
2026-02-07 | 2.06 |
2026-02-08 | 1.74 |
2026-02-09 | 1.95 |
2026-02-10 | 1.58 |
2026-02-11 | 2.34 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 17.79 | +2.48% | -1.17% | Moderate volatility, relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.91% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: more defensive posture, partial tilt to liquidity. |
Global Crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 25.3
Quick read: broad compression/oversold conditions.
🔗 On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on tilt. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -24.18% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.14% of total market cap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.84x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune)
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama)
Total 24h volume: 9.57B USD · 30D daily avg: 12.62B USD · % vs 30D: -24.18%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko)
Spot 24h volume (top CEX): 27.28B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 2.40T USD · Spot turnover: 1.14%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko)
Total OI: 83.37B USD · Derivatives 24h volume: 153.30B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.84x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 5.62x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures)
BTC funding: 0.0014% per period · ETH funding: -0.0084% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2)
Current gas: 0.04 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): It’s showing a lot of weakness and can’t break levels, building a bearish structure that already reached the range low; with today’s high-volatility catalysts, the market risks a breakdown unless it can reclaim the near-term EMA16/EMA20 area (74,748 / 76,446).
ETH: Looks like it’s front-running BTC weakness; it already broke the prior low, and the next decision zone is the 4H FVG + fib support area—bulls need stabilization here and then a push back toward EMA16/EMA20 (2,291 / 2,372).
USDT.D: Contrarian risk filter is leading higher—8.20 is the critical zone; a close above adds risk-off pressure, while rejection/failure there opens a relief window.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds the 68,250 area and reclaims the 74,748–76,446 EMA band while ETH stabilizes at/near 2,008 and pushes back toward 2,291–2,372; confirmation requires USDT.D to reject/fail at 8.20.
Bear case: BTC loses 68,250 with continued acceptance below and ETH extends below 2,008 without reclaiming 2,291–2,372; confirmation requires USDT.D to close above 8.20 to add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET / UTC+1)
⭐️ Highest-impact catalysts (today)
🇺🇸 14:30 — US Jobs Report (NFP + wages + unemployment)
Non-Farm Employment Change: forecast 66K, prior 50K
Unemployment Rate: forecast 4.4%, prior 4.4%
Avg Hourly Earnings m/m: forecast 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Context: this January jobs report was rescheduled due to the recent shutdown-related BLS calendar disruption.
& PPI (local release date = today; time not fixed on FF)**
CPI y/y: 0.2% actual vs 0.4% forecast (prior 0.8%)
PPI y/y: -1.4% actual vs -1.5% forecast (prior -1.9%)
🗓️ Full calendar (by time, Zurich)
Central banks / speakers
🇦🇺 02:30 — RBA Deputy Gov Hauser speaks
🇺🇸 16:00 — Fed (Schmid) speaks
🇺🇸 16:15 — Fed (Bowman) speaks
🇺🇸 22:00 — Fed (Hammack) speaks
Macro data
🇪🇺 10:00 — Italy Industrial Production m/m: -0.6% actual (prior 1.5%)
🇨🇦 14:30 — Building Permits m/m: 4.9% actual (prior -13.1%)
🇺🇸 16:30 — Crude Oil Inventories: forecast -0.2M (prior -3.5M)
🇺🇸 20:00 — Federal Budget Balance: forecast -94.6B (prior -144.7B)
Bonds / auctions (macro-critical in this environment)
🇩🇪 (Tentative) — German 30Y bond auction
🇺🇸 19:00 — US Treasury 10Y Note Auction ($42B), 13:00 ET
Canada
🇨🇦 19:30 — BoC Summary of Deliberations
💰 Earnings (global, major focus)
Pre-market (before US open) — Wed Feb 11
Key large caps today:
🇺🇸 MCD (McDonald’s) — Reports today (pre-market); options imply ~±3% move expected.
Other notable pre-market reporters (large/market-moving): TMUS, SHOP, NTES, VRT, HLT, KHC, GFS, HUM (and more).
🧾 Futures & options expirations
No major index OPEX today.
Next major monthly equity options expiration (OPEX): Fri, 20 Feb 2026 (3rd Friday).
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: TRUMP: “Either we make a deal, or we’ll have to do something very tough, like last time” + Trump expects the second round of U.S.-Iran talks next week (Axios).
Why it matters: geopolitical headline risk can hit crude, rates, and broad risk sentiment—especially on a day already stacked with US labor risk.
Market angle: treat this as an added volatility layer around the 14:30 jobs print and the 19:00 US 10Y auction.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: US January jobs report (rescheduled) with NFP, unemployment, and wages as the top catalyst.
Why it matters: labor is a core Fed input; big forecast surprises can shift rates fast.
Market angle: highest chance of “one-candle repricing” across USD, yields, equity index futures, and crypto beta.
Headline: CPI y/y and PPI y/y are listed with actual vs forecast (local release date today; timing not fixed in the doc).
Why it matters: inflation prints can reinforce or offset the labor signal on the policy path.
Market angle: if these prints are driving rate repricing, watch the 10Y auction tail as confirmation.
Headline: Italy Industrial Production m/m: -0.6% actual (prior 1.5%).
Why it matters: growth softness feeds the Europe macro tone.
Market angle: supports a more defensive backdrop if compounded by US risk-off data.
Headline: Canada Building Permits m/m: 4.9% actual (prior -13.1%) + BoC Summary of Deliberations at 19:30.
Why it matters: CAD sensitivity + domestic policy tone.
Market angle: potential CAD volatility later in the day even if US dominates the session.
Headline: Fed speakers (Schmid, Bowman, Hammack) and RBA Deputy Gov Hauser.
Why it matters: policy communication can reinforce the market’s read post-data.
Market angle: speakers after the jobs print can extend or fade the initial move.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: US equities mixed on Feb 10: Dow edged to another record, while S&P 500 fell 0.3% and Nasdaq -0.6%; financials sold off on “AI pressure” narrative.
Why it matters: shows rotation + sensitivity in financials, not a broad risk-on tape.
Market angle: if today’s macro shocks rates, financials and Nasdaq could stay the volatility epicenter.
Headline: Retail sales were flat in December (vs forecast +0.4%), feeding “consumer weakness” framing.
Why it matters: weaker consumer momentum changes the growth/inflation mix.
Market angle: reinforces two-way risk into labor + CPI.
Headline: Robinhood Q4: EPS beat (0.66 vs 0.63 est) but revenue missed ($1.28B vs est ~$1.33–$1.35B); shares down ~7% after-hours; crypto trading revenue -38% YoY to $221M.
Why it matters: highlights retail crypto sensitivity to market drawdowns; growth is being offset by other transaction lines (equities/options/prediction markets).
Market angle: crypto weakness narrative can spill into exchange/broker beta if the macro tape stays risk-off.
Headline: Spotify beat expectations and rallied ~15%; Coca-Cola fell ~1.5% on disappointing net revenue; Kering surged on turnaround optimism.
Why it matters: dispersion is high—single-stock outcomes are driving pockets of tape.
Market angle: earnings volatility remains a second engine alongside macro.
Headline: Nikkei 225 at a fresh record high, gains ~15% YTD; linked to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap-election victory.
Why it matters: strong Japan equity impulse can help global risk tone, but may not offset US macro shocks.
Market angle: watch whether global equities can “look through” US data or not.
Headline: MCD reports pre-market; options imply ~±3% expected move; other notable reporters include TMUS/SHOP/NTES/VRT/HLT/KHC/GFS/HUM.
Why it matters: pre-market earnings can set the tone before the 14:30 macro shock.
Market angle: avoid getting anchored to the open—macro can reverse the morning’s direction.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: White House stablecoin-yield meeting ended without resolution; banks pushed for broad prohibitive principles and tighter controls than the bill draft.
Why it matters: stablecoin “rewards/yield” is a core battleground for crypto rails; unresolved conflict can delay broader market structure progress.
Market angle: policy overhang stays on DeFi/cefi stablecoin models and any “yield-like” marketing.
Headline: Robinhood launched “Robinhood Chain,” an L2 built on Arbitrum tech and compatible with Ethereum; testnet live for developers (per doc highlights).
Why it matters: pushes the brokerage deeper into tokenized finance + infrastructure.
Market angle: reinforces the “RWA/tokenized stocks” narrative even during a crypto downturn.
Headline: LayerZero launching L1 “Zero”; Citadel Securities and Ark Invest acquired ZRO; Google Cloud + DTCC partnerships; ICE plans to examine potential 24/7 trading support.
Why it matters: big-name institutional + infrastructure endorsements can reshape market structure narratives around interoperability and settlement.
Market angle: ZRO is also a top 24h gainer in the doc’s movers list—narrative + price are aligned today.
Headline: Goldman Sachs cut spot BTC/ETH ETF holdings in Q4 (BTC ETFs to ~$1.06B; ETH ETFs to ~$1B) and added positions in spot XRP and Solana ETFs that launched during the quarter (per doc).
Why it matters: signals shifting institutional exposure across the ETF wrapper during a broader Q4 crypto drawdown.
Market angle: reinforces that ETF flows/positioning remain a key regime indicator.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Financial stocks faced “AI threats” to wealth-management businesses, weighing the Nasdaq and the sector.
Why it matters: AI is being priced as both disruptor and margin risk in legacy finance.
Market angle: financials may remain headline-sensitive; keep an eye on cross-asset risk tone post-jobs report.
Headline: Google Cloud partnered with LayerZero; narrative link made to AI agents becoming economic actors and needing reliable infrastructure.
Why it matters: AI + crypto infrastructure convergence is being explicitly marketed by major cloud providers.
Market angle: supports “infrastructure winners” framing even if broader crypto beta is weak.
Closing Market Read
Today is all about 14:30 CET (US jobs) and the rates follow-through into the 19:00 CET 10Y auction—with crypto already weak, the market doesn’t have much cushion.
👋 Goodbye
Trade safe today—size down into the data, respect the levels, and let USDT.D be the filter.