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Morning from Therwil. Yesterday’s tape was a mix of “rates stay sticky” and “AI-jitters still pressuring risk,” while crude perked up on Iran-tanker chatter. Today is set up for macro-driven volatility with UK growth data early, then US claims/housing, and a 30Y auction into the close. Crypto sentiment stays tense (Extreme Fear) even as positioning remains long-heavy—prime conditions for stop-runs and sharp intraday swings.
Highlights
Today
UK GDP + industry + trade bundle hits at 08:00 Zurich; US Initial Claims at 14:30; Existing Home Sales at 16:00; 30Y auction results ~19:00 Zurich.
Extreme Fear is the backdrop, while BTC/ETH short-term trend reads remain bearish; watch for “manipulate up then dump” style price action.
Earnings: AMAT after close; Hermès and L’Oréal listed for today.
ICE Gas Oil Low Sulphur settlement date today (12 Feb).
Coinbase (COIN) earnings (Q4 & FY 2025): release ~22:00 Zurich (after US close); webcast 23:30 Zurich. Key movers: guidance, trading volume + take rate, subscription & services, crypto market conditions.
This Week
US January jobs surprised higher (130k vs expectations), unemployment ticked down to 4.3%, reinforcing “Fed likely holds” vibes with yields rising.
AI anxiety continued to pressure software and financials (banks/brokers/software names notably weak).
Oil/geopolitics moved back into focus: Brent rose to $69.40 on reporting that US officials discussed seizing tankers transporting Iranian oil.
US-Venezuela policy/energy shift and Middle East military positioning both escalated headline risk.
Global Indices (yfinance)
Index | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY – S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 691.96 | -0.02% | -0.30% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
QQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 613.11 | +0.27% | -2.59% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Dow Jones – Industrial Average | ^DJI | 50121.40 | -0.13% | +2.14% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Russell 2000 – Small Caps USA | ^RUT | 2669.47 | -0.38% | +0.55% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
DAX – Germany | ^GDAXI | 24856.15 | -0.53% | +2.25% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Nikkei 225 – Japan | ^N225 | 57821.87 | +0.30% | +8.33% | Moderate directional bias; no extreme signal. |
FTSE 100 – UK | ^FTSE | 10472.10 | +1.14% | +2.95% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Hang Seng – Hong Kong | ^HSI | 27045.03 | -0.81% | -1.25% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Taiwan Weighted – Taiwan | ^TWII | 33605.71 | +1.61% | +3.29% | Moderate directional bias; no extreme signal. |
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 5 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-12)
Yesterday: 11 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-11)
7D average: 8.7
Δ vs yesterday: -6.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -3.7
Quick read: Extreme Fear is intensifying.
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.88 — 2026-02-12
Yesterday: 1.87 — change vs yesterday: +0.01
7D average: 1.88
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-05 | 2.89 |
2026-02-06 | 2.59 |
2026-02-07 | 1.85 |
2026-02-08 | 1.63 |
2026-02-09 | 1.69 |
2026-02-10 | 1.61 |
2026-02-11 | 1.87 |
2026-02-12 | 1.88 |
ETHUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.43 — 2026-02-12
Yesterday: 2.34 — change vs yesterday: +0.09
7D average: 2.11
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-05 | 2.96 |
2026-02-06 | 2.67 |
2026-02-07 | 2.06 |
2026-02-08 | 1.74 |
2026-02-09 | 1.95 |
2026-02-10 | 1.58 |
2026-02-11 | 2.34 |
2026-02-12 | 2.43 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 17.65 | -0.79% | -5.31% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 8.01% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: slightly defensive, liquidity-biased. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by mcap, excl. stables)
Basket average RSI: 25.4
Quick read: Very low RSI level across the basket.
🔗 On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / slight risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -16.97% vs 30D daily average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.40% of total market cap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.40x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune)
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama)
24h total volume: 10.48B USD · 30D daily average: 12.63B USD · % vs 30D: -16.97%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko)
24h spot volume (top CEX): 33.12B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 2.37T USD · Spot turnover: 1.40%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko)
Total OI: 82.07B USD · 24h derivatives volume: 197.04B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 2.40x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 5.95x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures)
BTC funding: -0.0014% per period · ETH funding: -0.0025% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2)
Current gas: 0.05 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): Price fell under the 0.5 fib zone and is bouncing between that and the 0.38 zone acting as resistance; we saw an attempt to push higher, and today could repeat the same pattern—push higher to manipulate before dumping lower.
ETH: Pretty similar but deeper—reached the 0.61, recovering faster and moving toward the 0.38; it wouldn’t surprise me to see an attempt to clean the PDH.
USDT.D: We cleaned the 8.20 zone but got rejected; structure is building bullish again, which makes it feel like that move was just a breath before pushing again—looks pretty bullish.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds the 0.5 fib zone and reclaims through the 0.38 resistance band; ETH continues recovering off the 0.61 and pushes toward/through the 0.38 with a PDH clean attempt. Confirmation: USDT.D must reject/fail again around 8.20 to keep a relief window open.
Bear case: BTC loses the 0.5 fib zone and accepts lower after a brief push-up attempt; ETH fails the recovery path (0.38 remains a cap) and rolls back after the PDH-liquidity move. Confirmation: USDT.D must close back above 8.20 to add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Thu, 12 Feb 2026 (Zurich CET, UTC+1)
⭐ Highest-impact (watch these first)
🇬🇧 UK GDP (Prelim) + Industrial/Manufacturing + Trade balance (Dec bundle) — 08:00 Zurich (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims — 14:30 Zurich (08:30 ET) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Jan) — 16:00 Zurich (10:00 ET) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 30Y Treasury Bond Auction (results) — ~19:00 Zurich (13:00 ET standard) (Forex Factory)
🗓️ Full schedule (Zurich time, 24h)
Morning (Europe)
🇬🇧 GDP m/m, Prelim GDP q/q, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Trade Balance, Services Index, Business Investment (Prelim) — 08:00 (Forex Factory)
US focus (macro + rates)
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims — 14:30 (Forex Factory)
🇨🇦 BoC Gov Council Member Rogers speaks — 14:45 (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — 16:00 (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 EIA Natural Gas Storage — 16:30 (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 30Y Treasury Bond Auction (results) — ~19:00 (Forex Factory)
🇩🇪 Bundesbank President Nagel speaks — 20:30 (Forex Factory)
Late (NZ)
🇳🇿 BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index — 22:30 (Forex Factory)
🇳🇿 Visitor Arrivals m/m — 22:45 (Forex Factory)
🌏 Overnight note (NOT “today” in China-local terms)
🇨🇳 New Home Prices m/m — 02:30 Zurich (Fri) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Fed speaker: Logan — 01:00 Zurich (Fri) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Fed speaker: Miran — 01:05 Zurich (Fri) (Forex Factory)
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: U.S. officials discussed whether to seize tankers transporting Iranian oil; Brent rose to $69.40.
Why it matters: Escalation risk adds a geopolitical premium to energy and can spill into inflation expectations.
Market angle: Watch oil-sensitive rates expectations and risk sentiment if tanker actions become policy.
Headline: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright met Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez; Treasury issued a new general license allowing U.S. firms to supply equipment/technology for pumping crude.
Why it matters: Signals a rapid pivot in Venezuela policy tied to production increases and political transition conditions.
Market angle: More supply capacity is a medium-term oil narrative, but execution risk remains high (legal/financial/technical).
Headline: Pentagon told a second carrier strike group to prepare for potential Middle East deployment tied to Iran negotiations.
Why it matters: Military positioning raises tail-risk around Iran talks and regional stability.
Market angle: Higher risk premium can favor defensives and energy while pressuring high-beta risk.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: January U.S. jobs report showed +130,000 jobs, unemployment 4.3%, after revisions indicated last year’s job gains were much lower than previously reported.
Why it matters: The “still-firm” headline strengthens the case for the Fed to keep rates on hold.
Market angle: Rates sensitivity stays high—claims + auction today become key inputs for the next leg in yields.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: U.S. stocks edged lower; Dow -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%, S&P 500 slightly down; Treasury yields rose after jobs data.
Why it matters: “Hold rates” narrative can cap multiple expansion and rotate leadership.
Market angle: If yields keep grinding up, expect renewed pressure on duration/AI-adjacent froth.
Headline: AI anxieties pressured banks, brokers, and software: Bank of America/JPMorgan/Citigroup down >2%; Schwab/Robinhood slid; Salesforce and Intuit down >4%.
Why it matters: Sector-level de-risking can become index-level drag even if macro is stable.
Market angle: Watch whether this stays “theme-specific” or spreads into broader risk-
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Coinbase rolled out “Agentic Wallets” to let autonomous AI agents hold funds, send payments, trade tokens, earn yield, and transact onchain with guardrails; supports EVM chains + Solana and gasless on Base.
Why it matters: Low-friction “agents that act” expands onchain usage surface area and operational demand for programmable permissions.
Market angle: Watch for narrative spillover into infra and wallet stacks; also watch risk controls as a gating factor.
Headline: BlackRock’s tokenized Treasury fund BUIDL will be tradable via UniswapX with Securitize/Uniswap Labs; BlackRock also bought an undisclosed amount of UNI, which jumped ~20% after the announcement.
Why it matters: This is a notable bridge: regulated tokenized treasuries using DeFi routing/settlement infrastructure for eligible investors.
Market angle: UNI sensitivity to “TradFi-on-DeFi rails” headlines stays elevated; tokenized treasury liquidity narratives remain in focus.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: AI jitters continued to pressure software and financial shares.
Why it matters: When “AI risk” shows up as selling (not just hype), correlations can spike in growth-heavy baskets.
Market angle: If this persists, expect choppier index intraday action and faster rotation, not clean trend days.
Headline: Coinbase’s Agentic Wallets targets AI agents that need money rails to execute tasks.
Why it matters: It’s a concrete “AI-to-onchain” productization attempt, not just a concept.
Market angle: If adoption is real, it can shift attention to payment protocols and permissioned automation primitives.
Closing Market Read
Today is a classic “data + auction” volatility setup: UK GDP early, then US claims and housing, finishing with the 30Y auction (~19:00 Zurich). In this kind of tape, the market loves to push first, decide later—especially with sentiment at Extreme Fear and positioning still long. For BTC, the fight is still around the 0.5 fib zone versus the 0.38 resistance band: hold and reclaim can open a relief move; fail and you risk the “manipulate up then dump lower” path repeating. ETH is the same story but deeper—coming off the 0.61 and pressing toward 0.38, with PDH liquidity a likely magnet. The confirmation filter is USDT.D: failure/rejection near 8.20 keeps the window open; a close back above 8.20 reinforces risk-off pressure.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the playbook for today—trade the levels, respect the calendar, and don’t overstay your conviction in a fear regime. Catch you after the claims + auction prints.