๐ GM!
Morning โ new week, and the tape is walking into a clean catalyst stack: CPI + banks + macro prints, with positioning already stretched.
Meanwhile, politics is pushing into markets again (Powell probe / Iran planning / Greenland talks), and stablecoins are sitting right in the crosshairs (Venezuela + U.S. banking lobby).
Cryptoโs price action looks more constructive than social interest (YouTube views at multi-year lows).
Highlights
Today
Powell criminal probe + his public pushback โ direct volatility input for rates/risk.
U.S. planning meeting on options for Iran โ headline risk (sanctions/cyber/military).
Market Risk Thermometer snapshot: gold bid, VIX moderate, positioning elevated, net CEX outflows.
This Week
Tue: U.S. CPI (Dec) = the rates/risk trigger.
Wed: U.S. Retail Sales + PPI + Beige Book = growth + inflation + Fed narrative check.
Thu: UK GDP batch + ECB accounts + U.S. claims/activity pulse.
Fri: U.S. Industrial Production + Monthly OPEX = volatility magnet.
๐ฆ Market Risk Thermometer
๐ Macro
Safe Havens & Rates (Updated: 2026-01-12 05:47)
๐ Technical
Crypto
Global Indices
Futures:
๐ข Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 27 โ Fear (2026-01-12)
Yesterday: 29 โ Fear (2026-01-11)
7D average: 31.7
ฮ vs yesterday: -2.0 | ฮ vs 7D average: -4.7
Quick read: 27 = Fear.
Positioning โ Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT โ Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.33 โ 2026-01-12
Yesterday: 2.27 โ change vs yesterday: +0.06
7D average: 1.96
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-01-05 | 1.37 |
2026-01-06 | 1.05 |
2026-01-07 | 1.48 |
2026-01-08 | 2.15 |
2026-01-09 | 2.19 |
2026-01-10 | 2.26 |
2026-01-11 | 2.27 |
2026-01-12 | 2.33 |
ETHUSDT โ Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.34 โ 2026-01-12
Yesterday: 2.58 โ change vs yesterday: -0.24
7D average: 2.10
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-01-05 | 1.41 |
2026-01-06 | 1.37 |
2026-01-07 | 1.38 |
2026-01-08 | 2.10 |
2026-01-09 | 2.35 |
2026-01-10 | 2.59 |
2026-01-11 | 2.58 |
2026-01-12 | 2.34 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 14.49 | -6.21% | -0.14% | Moderate volatility, fairly normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 5.95% | N/D | N/D | Low-to-moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on bias, balanced liquidity. |
Crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 60.3
Quick read: RSI 60.3 (moderately warm, not extreme).
๐ On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total ยท Net outflows (leaving CEX) โ more HODL / risk-on tilt. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -9.50% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 0.68% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Turnover: 1.04x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral. |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD ยท ETH netflow: -64.59K USD ยท Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 9.14B USD ยท 30D daily average: 10.10B USD ยท % vs 30D: -9.50%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
Spot 24h volume (top CEX): 21.84B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 3.23T USD ยท Spot turnover: 0.68%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 132.42B USD ยท Derivatives 24h volume: 137.16B USD (sum of 10 derivative exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.04x (vol_24h / OI) ยท Deriv/Spot volume ratio: 6.28x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0018% per period ยท ETH funding: 0.0100% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.03 GWEI ยท Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
๐ Top Movers (CMC Top 100) โ 2026-01-12 05:47
Top 10 Winners & Losers
๐ Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT):
Respected the middle range over the weekend, which I think is bullish, with a really good reaction on the Asia TF and also a positive reaction to the Powell news. There is nothing in the way to break the upper range โ today we need a close above the 50 EMA.
ETH:
Same pattern โ respected the middle range over the weekend and now leading to the upper part; we have a previous high at 3184 that could reject, but weโll see. Important here as well: close above the 50 EMA.
USDT.D:
A reversal started over the weekend and price rejected a close above the 16 EMA. The market could be showing its hand: the 16 EMA was used as a bull-trend reference on the way up; now it could be the reference guiding the way down. A close below the 50 EMA here would be bullish for markets.
๐ฎ 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds and closes above the 50 EMA (EMA50 91615.) and pushes into the upper range; ETH closes above the 50 EMA (EMA50 3127) and accepts above 3184. Confirmation: USDT.D must reject/fail at the 16 EMA and stay below / close below the 50 EMA.
Bear case: BTC loses the 50 EMA (EMA50 91615.) and accepts lower; ETH loses the 50 EMA (EMA50 3127) and accepts below. Confirmation: USDT.D must close above its key level(s) (16 EMA / 50 EMA) to add risk-off pressure.
๐๏ธ Key Economic Events
Week Ahead (Zurich) โ key catalysts
Mon 12 Jan 19:01 ๐บ๐ธ 10Y Auction + 18:45 Fed Barkin โ rates tone / liquidity test
Tue 13 Jan 14:30 ๐บ๐ธ CPI (Dec) โ the rates/risk trigger
13:00 JPM results / 14:30 JPM call + DAL call 16:00 โ kickoff read on credit + consumer
Wed 14 Jan 14:30 ๐บ๐ธ Retail Sales + PPI โ growth + inflation combo
20:00 Beige Book โ Fed narrative check
Big banks: BAC (12:45/14:30), C (14:00/17:00), WFC (13:00/16:00) โ credit + funding stress signals
Thu 15 Jan 08:00 ๐ฌ๐ง GDP batch โ UK growth shock risk
13:30 ๐ช๐บ ECB accounts โ policy path clarity
14:30 ๐บ๐ธ Claims + Philly/Empire + Import Prices โ labor + activity pulse
TSMC call 07:00 โ AI/supply-chain barometer
Fri 16 Jan 15:15 ๐บ๐ธ Industrial Production โ real-economy check
Monthly OPEX โ volatility magnet into the close
๐ Macro & Politics
U.S. steps up planning for possible action in Iran: Trump aides set to brief him Tuesday on options (sanctions, cyber, military) amid Iran protests and threats.
Why it matters: Escalation risk can whip energy, rates, and broad risk sentiment quickly.
Market angle: Treat as headline-volatility fuel into CPI week; watch for risk-off spikes if rhetoric hardens.
U.S. and Denmark to discuss Greenland: Officials meet Wednesday after heightened rhetoric and reports around U.S. posture.
Why it matters: Another geopolitics stressor adding noise premium.
Market angle: Mostly โtail-risk optics,โ but it stacks with Iran/Powell into a catalyst-heavy week.
๐ฆ Economy & Central Banks
U.S. prosecutors investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Probe focuses on his testimony about Fed renovation; Powell says itโs political pressure tied to rates.
Why it matters: Direct threat to perceived Fed independence = higher volatility regime.
Market angle: Rates/risk could gap around legal/political updates; CPI becomes even more reflexive.
Goldman Sachs rate-cut path pushed back: Now expects 25 bps cuts in June and September vs prior March and June.
Why it matters: โHigher-for-longerโ timing shifts can reprice risk multiples quickly.
Market angle: Keeps CPI as the key gate; any upside inflation surprise = harder landing for risk.
Powell โfighting backโ + futures drop: Commentary notes stock futures fell over -0.5% after Powell framed the probe as intimidation; Fed expected to pause Jan 28.
Why it matters: Confirms โpolitics โ rates โ riskโ transmission is active.
Market angle: Volatility premium stays elevated into the 14:30 CPI print.
๐ Markets & Corporates
Bank earnings week kickoff (JPM/BAC/C/WFC) + DAL: Timed around CPI/Retail Sales week as listed in the schedule.
Why it matters: Credit/funding/consumer read-through can amplify or damp CPI-driven moves.
Market angle: Treat as volatility multipliers, not background noise.
๐๏ธ Crypto Industry
Venezuela oil trade put USDT at center stage: PdVSA demanded USDT payments to bypass banking sanctions; estimate cited says ~80% of oil revenue collected in stablecoins; Tether has frozen wallets tied to Venezuelan oil trade per report.
Why it matters: Reinforces the โdual-useโ reality of stablecoins (civilian lifeline + sanctions-evasion tool).
Market angle: Stablecoin policy scrutiny rises right as the U.S. market debates issuer rules and incentives.
U.S. community banks warn stablecoins could pull deposits: ABA community bank leaders cite Treasury estimate of up to $6.6T deposits at risk via yield-like incentives; JPMorgan downplays systemic risk.
Why it matters: Regulation could tighten around โindirect yieldโ mechanics (exchanges/affiliates).
Market angle: Headline risk for yield-bearing stables and exchange reward structures.
๐ค Tech & AI
Starlink terminals into Iran discussed: Option under discussion to help protesters bypass internet shutdown.
Why it matters: Tech infrastructure becomes a geopolitical lever, with escalation risk attached.
Market angle: Adds another headline channel for risk sentiment shocks.
TSMC call listed as an AI/supply-chain barometer: Scheduled (07:00) in the week-ahead block.
Why it matters: AI capex/supply chain tone can steer tech beta.
Market angle: Watch as cross-asset risk signal alongside CPI.
๐ช Crypto
Crypto YouTube views sink to 5-year lows: Viewership down to lowest since Jan 2021; commentary says decline is broad across platforms; Santiment notes BTC social sentiment improving, and $90,000 is key for retailers staying positive.
Why it matters: Retail attention remains weak (institution-led market framing).
Market angle: Price can still trend, but moves may be more headline/liquidity-driven than hype-driven.
Closing Market Read
Was the Powell video what the crypto market was waiting for? Funny โ TradFi didnโt like it, but crypto did.
This week can still be bullish, but only if BTC holds and closes above the 50 EMA (EMA50 91615.4296) and ETH holds and closes above the 50 EMA (EMA50 3127.1884), with ETH able to accept above 3184.
If those holds happen, the market gets a cleaner runway into CPI and the rest of the catalyst stack.
If BTC breaks back below the 50 EMA (and ETH breaks below the 50 EMA), expect the CPI week to turn into a volatility flush instead of continuation.
Two outcomes only: hold the 50 EMA = push, break the 50 EMA = reset.
๐ Goodbye
Thatโs the full map for today. Trade small into the prints, respect the levels, and let USDT.D be your risk filter.