👋 Opening
Morning from Therwil!
Today is a clean “macro catalyst + risk sentiment” setup: US CPI (Jan) is the main trigger, while positioning and broader risk appetite remain fragile (extreme fear + still-heavy long/short ratios).
On the tape, volatility picked up, and geopolitics is back in focus with a major US naval deployment headline.
Highlights
Today
🇺🇸 US CPI (Jan) — 14:30 Zurich (HIGH)
🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP (Q4, 2nd est) + Trade Balance (Dec) — 11:00 Zurich
Geopolitics: US sending USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to Middle East
This Week
Risk-off shake: AI disruption fears widened beyond tech → broad stock slide narrative
Crypto/Policy: Market-structure bill pressure rising; SEC chair warns rules aren’t “future-proof” without law
Earnings pulse: Coinbase Q4 loss + cautious tone; Applied Materials beat + strong AI/memory guide
DeFi governance: Aave Labs proposes routing 100% product revenue to Aave DAO in exchange for DAO funding
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
Macro — Safe Havens & Rates (Updated: 2026-02-13 06:18)
Sentiment
Fear & Greed (alternative.me)
Today: 9 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-13)
Yesterday: 5 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-12)
7D average: 8.7
Δ vs yesterday: +4.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +0.3
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT (1D)
Today: 2.33 (2026-02-13) | Yesterday: 1.88 | 7D avg: 1.84
ETHUSDT (1D)
Today: 2.63 (2026-02-13) | Yesterday: 2.43 | 7D avg: 2.11
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | 1D % | 7D % | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX | 20.82 | +17.96% | -4.36% | Moderate volatility; broadly “normal” regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 8.09% | N/D | N/D | Moderately-high: defensive tilt / liquidity preference. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 ex-stables)
Basket average RSI: 28.1
On-chain — CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune) | -34.56M USD total (net outflows) → HODL bias / mildly supportive. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -25.69% vs 30D avg |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.19% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (CoinGecko) | Derivatives turnover: 2.15x (vol_24h / OI) |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | BTC: 0.0058% per period |
Numeric detail
CEX netflows (BTC+ETH): BTC 34.49M | ETH 64.59K | Total 34.56M
DEX volume: 24h 9.36B | 30D daily avg 12.59B | 25.69% vs 30D
CEX spot: 24h 27.87B (top 10 CEX) | Total mcap 2.34T | Turnover 1.19%
Derivatives: OI 81.05B | 24h deriv vol 174.13B (top 10) | Deriv/Spot vol ratio 6.25x
ETH gas (Etherscan V2): 0.06 GWEI (very low)
🔍 Market Lens
BTC: Price action has been leaving higher liquidity all week — do we go take it? So far it doesn’t look like it, but a bounce from here could still trigger it. The 0.61 fib is a good zone to watch for a technical bounce.
ETH: The 0.61 zone together with the PDL marked the bounce point. Do we repeat the same dynamic today?
USDT.D: The move continues upward. After breaking 8.20%, next is 8.50%. The verticality of the move is a warning sign for broader risk appetite.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
⭐ Highest-impact focus
🇺🇸 14:30 Zurich — CPI (Jan) (HIGH)
🌍 Economic data (by day)
🇪🇺 11:00 Zurich — Eurozone GDP (Q4, 2nd estimate) (MED/HIGH)
🇪🇺 11:00 Zurich — Eurozone Trade Balance (Dec) (MED)
🇺🇸 14:30 Zurich — CPI (Jan) (HIGH)
🧾 Earnings (largest / most market-relevant)
Notable global/large caps reporting (mostly pre-market Europe / pre-US open):
🇫🇷 Safran — Before open
🇬🇧 NatWest — Before open
🇯🇵 Tokio Marine — Before open
🇨🇦 Cameco — Before open
🇨🇦 Magna — Before open
🇺🇸 Wendy’s — Before US cash open (15:30 Zurich)
Latest major prints (last ~24h) to keep on radar
🇺🇸 Coinbase (COIN) — Miss / weak trading backdrop; Q1 subscription/services revenue outlook $550M–$630M; shares +~3% after-hours (noted).
🇺🇸 Applied Materials (AMAT) — Beat + strong AI/memory guide; Q2 sales ~$7.65B ± $0.5B, adj EPS ~$2.64 ± $0.20; stock +~12% after-hours (reported).
💵 Bond auctions (macro-important)
No new US Treasury auction scheduled for today (Fri).
Recent tone:
🇺🇸 30Y bond auction (Thu): strong demand — high yield 4.750%, bid-to-cover 2.66
🇺🇸 10Y note auction (Wed): below-average demand — high yield 4.177%, bid-to-cover 2.39
🗓️ Futures & options expirations (key dates)
US monthly OPEX: Fri, 20 Feb 2026
VIX expiry cluster: Wed, 18 Feb 2026
⚠️ Macro/geopolitical market movers to watch (today)
Risk narrative still tied to US–China trade/tariff headlines and spillover into crypto risk appetite (as cited in recent COIN coverage).
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: U.S. is sending the USS Gerald R. Ford (largest US carrier) to the Middle East as pressure on Iran increases.
Why it matters: A step-up in military posture raises tail-risk for energy, risk premia, and broader cross-asset volatility.
Market angle: If escalation headlines accelerate, expect risk-off bids (rates down, volatility up) and more defensive crypto behavior.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: US CPI (Jan) at 14:30 Zurich is today’s top macro catalyst.
Why it matters: This print can reset rates expectations and risk appetite quickly.
Market angle: CPI is your volatility “switch” — be ready for a two-way move across USD, yields, equities, and majors.
Headline: Eurozone GDP (Q4, 2nd est) + Trade Balance (Dec) at 11:00 Zurich.
Why it matters: Confirms growth momentum and external balance.
Market angle: Watch EUR sensitivity into the US CPI; Europe data can influence positioning going into the US print.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Stocks slid as investors repriced AI disruption risks across sectors (beyond tech).
Why it matters: “Shoot first” derisking can spill into credit, rates, and crypto via liquidity/risk appetite channels.
Market angle: If this narrative persists, expect rotations and higher dispersion; volatility can stay elevated even without “bad data.”
Headline: Applied Materials beat + strong guide tied to AI/memory demand; stock jumped after-hours (reported).
Why it matters: It’s a key read-through for capex and the “real economy” side of the AI cycle.
Market angle: Strong semi guidance can buffer broader risk sentiment—but only if macro (CPI/rates) doesn’t overpower it.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: US crypto market-structure bill talks remain fragile; SEC chair Paul Atkins says durable policy “requires legislation,” not just agency rules.
Why it matters: Regulatory clarity is still the gating factor for long-duration institutional adoption narratives.
Market angle: This is headline-driven optionality—positive progress can help sentiment, but stalls keep “risk premium” embedded.
Headline: Aave Labs proposes routing 100% of product revenue to the DAO in exchange for a significant DAO funding package.
Why it matters: This is a real-time test of “DAO ownership vs core dev company” alignment and treasury governance.
Market angle: Watch governance reaction: it can impact DeFi governance confidence and token-holder expectations around revenue capture.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: AI fears widened—market reacted to news flow implying AI tools could disrupt insurance, tax planning, legal/research tasks, and logistics.
Why it matters: Broad “AI disruption” anxiety can create cross-sector drawdowns and risk-parity style deleveraging.
Market angle: This is a volatility regime story; if it keeps spreading, crypto beta typically doesn’t get spared.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Crypto sentiment remains extreme fear, while long/short ratios rose again (BTC and ETH).
Why it matters: Fear + crowded positioning can produce sharp squeezes, but also fragile downside if macro shocks hit.
Market angle: Today’s CPI is the trigger—watch whether majors stabilize at the key “bounce zones” mentioned in the Lens, or whether USDT.D keeps grinding higher.
Closing Market Read
CPI (14:30 Zurich) is the day’s volatility gate: it will decide whether oversold conditions translate into a bounce or whether risk stays defensive.
BTC: outcome is binary around the 0.61 fib bounce zone — hold and you can still see a liquidity-run attempt; break and the market likely stays heavy with USDT.D pressure.
ETH: same framework — hold the 0.61 + PDL confluence and you can repeat the prior bounce dynamic; break and the path stays risk-off.
USDT.D: after clearing 8.20%, 8.50% is the next line—continuation higher keeps the “defensive liquidity” signal loud.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full map for today. Keep sizing tight into the CPI window, and let the levels decide.