👋

Morning from Zurich. Today is a “fast tape” setup: US CPI lands into the start of bank earnings, with a 30Y Treasury auction later as the second volatility pocket.

At the same time, headlines around Fed independence/political pressure and Iran are floating in the background—so expect clean wicks and quick repricing if data/headlines hit together.

Highlights

Today

  • 🇺🇸 14:30 — US CPI + Core CPI (Dec) (high impact; can reprice rates, USD, equities, crypto fast).

  • 🇺🇸 (BMO) — Earnings kick-off: JPM, BK, DAL, CNXC (risk tone catalyst).

  • 🇺🇸 19:01 — US 30Y Treasury Bond Auction (duration/long-end vol).

  • Fed chair Powell DOJ probe headlines: potential market/confirmation-process fallout is being discussed by Senate Republicans.

  • White House weighs Iran nuclear-talks offer vs strikes; diplomacy vs escalation risk still live.

This Week

  • Fri, 16 Jan 2026 — Monthly U.S. options expiration (OPEX) (key vol date on the calendar).

  • Jan 16 also shows as a notable futures roll/expiry cluster on calendars referenced in the doc.

  • 🇨🇳 Jan 13–15 (tentative window) — China M2 + New Loans can print at unpredictable times (and may be updated later).

🔦 Market Risk Thermometer

🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates

📉 Technical Crypto

Global indices (yfinance)

📢 Sentiment

Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)

  • Today: 26 — Fear (2026-01-13)

  • Yesterday: 27 — Fear (2026-01-12)

  • 7D average: 29.1

  • Δ vs yesterday: -1.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -3.1

Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)

BTCUSDT (1D)

Today: 1.88 (2026-01-13)

Yesterday: 2.33 (change: -0.45)

7D average: 2.08

Date

Ratio

2026-01-06

1.05

2026-01-07

1.48

2026-01-08

2.15

2026-01-09

2.19

2026-01-10

2.26

2026-01-11

2.27

2026-01-12

2.33

2026-01-13

1.88

ETHUSDT (1D)

Today: 2.64 (2026-01-13)

Yesterday: 2.34 (change: +0.30)

7D average: 2.28

Date

Ratio

2026-01-06

1.37

2026-01-07

1.38

2026-01-08

2.10

2026-01-09

2.35

2026-01-10

2.59

2026-01-11

2.58

2026-01-12

2.34

2026-01-13

2.64

Volatility & Stablecoins

Metric

Value

% 1D

% 7D

Quick read

VIX (S&P 500 volatility)

15.12

+4.35%

+1.48%

Moderate volatility; relatively normal environment.

USDT Dominance (CMC)

6.01%

N/D

N/D

Low–moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on tilt / balanced liquidity.

Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)

  • Basket average RSI: 60.3

  • Quick read: RSI 60.3.

🔗 On-chain — CEX & Derivatives Flows

Sub-block

Quick read

CEX Netflows BTC+ETH

-34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on tilt.

DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama)

+8.21% vs 30D average

CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko)

Spot turnover: 0.96% of total market cap

Derivatives Activity (Global CG)

Derivatives turnover: 1.52x

Funding BTC/ETH (Binance)

Funding near neutral

Numeric detail

  • CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):

    • BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD

  • DEX Global (DeFiLlama):

    • Total 24h volume: 11.03B USD · 30D daily avg: 10.19B USD · % vs 30D: +8.21%

  • CEX Spot (CoinGecko):

    • Spot 24h volume (top CEX, sum of 10): 30.51B USD

    • Total market cap (CG): 3.19T USD · Spot turnover: 0.96%

  • Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):

    • Total OI: 129.48B USD · Derivatives 24h volume (sum of 10): 197.00B USD

    • Derivatives turnover: 1.52x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 6.46x

  • Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):

    • BTC funding: 0.0022% per period · ETH funding: 0.0047% per period

  • ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):

    • Current gas: 0.03 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.

🔍 Market Lens

BTC (BTCUSDT):

Today we expect a really volatile day with the important CPI data, so we may see a clean above and below before deciding direction—so far it looks like price wants to go higher. Key reference levels from the doc: EMA20 ~ 90,460, EMA16 ~ 90,636 as the near-term pivot zone, and EMA50 ~ 91,568 as the first reclaim/hold line.

ETH:

Price didn’t move too much and remains flatter than BTC (not that bullish anyway); today anything can happen. Key reference levels from the doc: EMA20 ~ 3,088 / EMA16 ~ 3,096 as the pivot zone, with EMA50 ~ 3,124 as the nearby reclaim/hold.

USDT.D:

Yesterday’s candle reflects indecision, but it still closed below the 16 EMA and is now sitting right above the 50 EMA—so a break below the 50 EMA would keep the path pointed lower in dominance (relief window), while holding it keeps risk-off pressure sticky.

🔮 2-Scenario Forecast

Bull case: BTC holds the EMA20/EMA16 pivot zone (~90.5k–90.6k) and reclaims/accepts above the EMA50 (~91.6k), while ETH holds ~3,088–3,096 and reclaims ~3,124; confirmation is USDT.D rejecting/failing at its 50 EMA (staying below/losing it).

Bear case: BTC loses acceptance below the EMA20/EMA16 pivot zone (~90.5k–90.6k) and fails to reclaim the EMA50 (~91.6k), while ETH loses ~3,088–3,096 and can’t reclaim ~3,124; confirmation is USDT.D closing back above its key level (50 EMA) to add risk-off pressure.

🗓️ Key Economic Events

Key economic events today — Tue, 13 Jan 2026 (Zurich CET, 24h)

⭐ Top macro catalysts (today’s “must-watch”)

  • 🇺🇸 14:30 — US CPI + Core CPI (Dec) (high impact)

    • Core CPI MoM: forecast 0.3% vs prior 0.2%

    • Core CPI YoY: forecast 2.7% vs prior 2.6%

    • CPI YoY: forecast 2.7% vs prior 2.7%

  • 🇺🇸 Earnings kick-off (before US open) — JPM, BK, DAL, CNXC

    • JPM details: results ~13:00 Zurich, call 14:30 Zurich

  • 🇺🇸 19:01 — US 30Y Treasury Bond Auction (rate-vol / duration event)

Full day schedule (Zurich CET)

  • 🇺🇸 00:00 — Fed’s Williams speaks

  • 🇯🇵 00:50 — Bank Lending YoY: 4.4% (act) vs 4.1% (fcst)

  • 🇯🇵 00:50 — Current Account: 3.14T (act) vs 3.04T (fcst)

  • 🇬🇧 01:01 — BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY: 1.0% (act) vs 1.3% (fcst)

Europe morning

  • 🇯🇵 06:00 — Economy Watchers Sentiment: 48.7 (act) vs 48.7 (fcst)

  • 🇫🇷 08:45 — French Gov Budget Balance: -136.2B (latest)

  • 🇨🇳 (Tentative, China local day Jan 13–15) — M2 Money Supply YoY

  • 🇨🇳 (Tentative, China local day Jan 13–15) — New Loans

  • 🇬🇧 11:00 — BOE Gov Bailey speaks

U.S. session (the main event block)

  • 🇺🇸 (BMO) — Earnings: JPM, BK, DAL, CNXC

  • 🇺🇸 12:00 — NFIB Small Business Index: forecast 99.5 vs prior 99.0

  • 🇨🇦 14:30 — Building Permits MoM: forecast -5.6% vs prior 14.9%

  • 🇺🇸 14:30 — Core CPI MoM / CPI MoM / CPI YoY (Dec)

  • 🇺🇸 16:00 — New Home Sales (delayed “Sep data” prints also listed)

  • 🇺🇸 16:00 — Fed’s Musalem speaks

  • 🇺🇸 19:01 — 30Y Bond Auction

  • 🇺🇸 20:00 — Federal Budget Balance: forecast -140.7B vs prior -173.3B

  • 🇺🇸 22:00 — Fed’s Barkin speaks

  • 🇺🇸 22:30 — API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (oil)

🧾 Bond auctions (today)

  • 🇺🇸 19:01 — 30Y Treasury Bond Auction (watch tails, bid-to-cover, indirects)

🧨 Futures & options expirations (relevant)

  • No major “OPEX-style” U.S. monthly expiration today.

  • Next key one this week: Fri, 16 Jan 2026 — Monthly U.S. options expiration.

  • Futures roll/expiry cluster also shows Jan 16 as a notable date for multiple contracts.

🧠 Revision watchlist (things that can surprise later)

  • 🇨🇳 Credit/M2 (tentative window Jan 13–15): can print at unpredictable times and sometimes get revised/updated.

  • 🇺🇸 “Delayed” U.S. housing prints: some items are labeled as older-month data—treat reaction as headline/liquidity-driven rather than a clean macro signal.

🌍 Macro & Politics

  • Headline: White House weighs Iran’s nuclear-talks offer as Trump leans toward strikes.

    • Why it matters: Diplomacy vs escalation is a direct volatility input (risk premium, potential oil sensitivity, headline-driven risk-off/risk-on flips).

    • Market angle: Keep positioning light into CPI; if Iran headlines intensify alongside data, expect sharper cross-asset reactions (rates/oil/risk).

🏦 Economy & Central Banks

  • Headline: Trump allies and officials fear blowback from DOJ probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

    • Why it matters: Fed independence/political pressure is a credibility shock risk—can lift term premia, raise volatility, and complicate the forward rate path.

    • Market angle: This is the kind of theme that can amplify CPI reactions—bigger wicks, faster USD/rates repricing, and “risk” correlation shifts.

  • Headline: Street rate-path shifts noted: JPMorgan no longer expects a Fed rate cut; Goldman delays cut expectations to September (from March 2026).

    • Why it matters: Changing cut timing reshapes the “soft landing / duration bid” narrative and can reprice the front end and growth/risk multiples.

    • Market angle: CPI is the trigger—prints that validate “no cuts soon” can tighten financial conditions; softer prints can reopen easing expectations.

📈 Markets & Corporates

  • Headline: Kraken-linked SPAC (KRAKacquisition) files for Nasdaq IPO targeting $250M (25M units at $10; ticker “KRAQU”).

    • Why it matters: A crypto-affiliate SPAC vehicle signals ongoing capital markets appetite for “crypto infrastructure” exposure (even pre-target).

    • Market angle: Watch how broader risk tone (CPI + bank earnings) affects reception; it’s a sentiment tell for crypto-equity adjacency.

  • Headline: Gold ripped higher (+2.58% 1D, +6.48% 7D) while US10Y sits around 4.19%.

    • Why it matters: Safe-haven bid + steady yields can indicate “risk hedging” even if equities stay contained.

    • Market angle: If CPI surprises hot, gold/yields/FX can move together fast; if CPI cools, you may see relief in risk with less urgency for hedges.

🏛️ Crypto Industry

  • Headline: Kraken affiliate sponsors KRAKacquisition SPAC; narrative includes targeting “core crypto economy infrastructure” (payments, tokenization) though no target selected.

    • Why it matters: TradFi-style vehicles remain a pathway for crypto ecosystem expansion narratives.

    • Market angle: Flows and sentiment may swing around macro today, but structural headlines like this can support medium-term positioning if risk stabilizes.

🪙 Crypto

  • Headline: BTC ~91,333 and ETH ~3,114 are both still below EMA200 (trend filter), with neutral RSI but positive MACD histograms.

    • Why it matters: That mix often means “relief attempts inside a broader downtrend”—prime conditions for fakeouts around CPI.

    • Market angle: Use the EMA20/EMA16 pivot zones as the decision area today; reclaiming EMA50 helps, losing the pivot invites downside continuation.

  • Headline: On-chain/flows snapshot shows net BTC+ETH outflows from CEX (-34.56M USD total), DEX volume above 30D average, and funding near neutral.

    • Why it matters: Net outflows skew toward holding behavior, while neutral funding suggests leverage isn’t extremely one-sided right now.

    • Market angle: Macro can override intraday—but these inputs argue for “not a panic distribution regime” unless CPI/headlines shock the tape.

🧩 Tokens

Top 10 Winners (24h)/ Top 10 Losers (24h)

Closing Market Read

CPI at 14:30 Zurich is the main trigger, with bank earnings + the 30Y auction layering extra volatility later.

Hold outcome: BTC holds the ~90.5k–90.6k EMA20/EMA16 pivot and reclaims ~91.6k (EMA50), while ETH holds ~3,088–3,096 and reclaims ~3,124; this pairs best with USDT.D failing at/losing its 50 EMA.

Break outcome: BTC loses acceptance below ~90.5k–90.6k and can’t reclaim ~91.6k, with ETH losing ~3,088–3,096 and failing ~3,124; that’s the risk-off path if USDT.D closes back above its 50 EMA.

Fed-independence headlines and Iran risks are the kind of “second catalyst” that can amplify whichever CPI path triggers first.

👋 Goodbye

That’s the full tape for today. Trade small into CPI, let the levels do the talking, and respect the whipsaw.

Winter Sun Capital

© 2026 Winter Sun Capital.
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