Morning from Basel. The tape still feels heavy in crypto despite some intraday stabilization: BTC looks “saved” only if it holds the reclaimed channel, ETH looks tired and stuck on prior-day low support, and USDT.D momentum is building. Today is macro-dense (UK inflation, IFO, EZ CPI final, EIA), plus auctions and volatility futures expiries — a perfect setup for choppy price action.

Today

This Week (3–6 bullets)

Comment: Short-term clearly bearish within a bearish broader trend (price < EMA200; short EMAs below longer EMAs). RSI is moderate (39.6). MACD histogram negative (-7.3399), bearish momentum.

Comment: Short-term clearly bearish within a bearish broader trend (price < EMA200; short EMAs below longer EMAs). RSI is neutral (41.3). MACD histogram negative (-5.8973), bearish momentum.

Comment: Short-term clearly bearish within a bearish broader trend (price < EMA200; short EMAs below longer EMAs). RSI is moderate (39.2). MACD histogram positive (0.2477), bullish momentum.

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Quick read: still Extreme Fear, slightly less stressed than yesterday.

BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.18 — 2025-12-17
Yesterday: 2.99 — change vs yesterday: -0.80
7-day average: 2.19

ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.59 — 2025-12-17
Yesterday: 2.97 — change vs yesterday: -0.37
7-day average: 2.22

Numerical detail

BTC (BTCUSDT): BTC recovered better on the daily and got back inside the parallel channel (a good sign), but the Asian-session weakness is a warning — it must hold the recent lows as support, while the 15 EMA area remains the first resistance on any bounce. Support: recent lows. Resistance: EMA16 89,614 / EMA20 90,082.

Pivot: channel reclaim / green zone.

ETH: ETH broke below the prior day lows and closed with almost no movement; the price looks tired — best case is a rally into the 15 EMA zone before continuation lower, while the key 4H base is the prior-day-low support band. Support: 2,920–2,880 (then 2,840 / 2,760). Resistance: EMA16 3,064 / EMA20 3,075. Pivot: 2,920–2,880 base.

USDT.D: Momentum is strong on both 4H and 1D and reads like an upside breakout is “cooking” — as long as it keeps building above the current 6.28% dominance level, it’s a risk-off pressure signal; failure to extend is the relief window.

Bull case: BTC holds the recent lows and consolidates back inside the channel, then reclaims the EMA16–EMA20 band (89.6k–90.1k); ETH holds 2,920–2,880 and bounces into the EMA16–EMA20 zone (3,064–3,075) as the “best case” relief — confirmation: USDT.D must fail to extend above the current 6.28% level.

Bear case: BTC loses the recent lows and gets rejected again by the EMA16–EMA20 band; ETH loses 2,880 and the path opens toward 2,840 then 2,760 — confirmation: USDT.D must keep trending up through/above 6.28% dominance to sustain risk-off pressure.

📅 Wednesday, 17 December 2025 – Key Economic Events
(All times = Zurich time, CET, 24h)

🔴 Top tier focus today

🇬🇧 UK inflation dump (CPI + RPI + PPI) – 08:00

Full inflation cluster right in front of tomorrow’s BoE decision.

Any downside surprise can turbo-charge rate-cut expectations; upside keeps GBP supported. (European Commission)

🇩🇪🇪🇺 Germany IFO + Eurozone CPI final – 10:00–11:00

10:00 – German IFO Business Climate / Current / Expectations.

11:00 – Eurozone CPI (final, y/y) + Core CPI (final, y/y) for November.

This locks in the euro-area inflation profile going into tomorrow’s ECB. (European Commission)

🇺🇸 US – EIA Crude Oil Inventories – 16:30

Weekly EIA report is flagged by desks as the key US release today, with oil positioning very sensitive after recent risk-off / peace-talk headlines. (European Commission)

🇺🇸 US – MBA Mortgage Apps & high-yield spread data

13:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications + 30-year mortgage rate (7:00 ET). (Liveauctioneers)

HY OAS (ICE BofA US High Yield index) gets its daily update today – used as a risk-sentiment gauge, not a real-time event, but worth watching because spreads are near ~2.9%. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

🇳🇿 New Zealand – Q3 GDP – 22:45

Big for NZD and risk sentiment in Asia tonight, after last quarter’s contraction. (European Commission)

🏦 Key bond & derivative flows

🇺🇸 20-year UST (re-opening) + 17-week T-bill auctions today. (US500)

🇯🇵 1-year Treasury Discount Bill auction. (mof.go.jp)

VIX futures (Dec-25), VSTOXX mini and several equity / FX futures hit last trading day today. (Strategic Energy Europe)

🧭 Detailed macro calendar (Zurich time)

🌏 Asia–Pac

01:00 – 🇦🇺 Australia – Westpac Leading Index (m/m, Nov)

Low/medium relevance, but a directional signal for Australian growth momentum. (European Commission)

22:45 – 🇳🇿 New Zealand – Q3 2025 GDP (q/q)

Previous quarter was -0.9% q/q; consensus now around +0.8% q/q (snap-back from contraction).

Big implications for RBNZ stance and high-beta FX sentiment. (European Commission)

China: no major scheduled data drop today on the global calendars (focus remains on earlier this week’s Chinese activity data & trade balance – nothing fresh on the tape for 17 Dec). (treasurydirect.gov)

🇪🇺 Europe & 🇬🇧 UK

🇬🇧 United Kingdom – the inflation block

All at 08:00 Zurich (07:00 GMT): (European Commission)

CPI m/m (Nov)

CPI y/y (Nov)

Core CPI y/y (Nov)

RPI m/m & y/y (Nov)

PPI Input m/m & y/y (Nov)

PPI Output m/m & y/y (Nov)

PPI Core Output m/m & y/y (Nov)

These numbers basically decide whether tomorrow’s BoE cut is seen as a one-off, the start of a cutting cycle, or something in between.

🇩🇪 Germany – business sentiment

10:00 – IFO Business Climate (Dec)

10:00 – IFO Current Assessment (Dec)

10:00 – IFO Expectations (Dec)

Consensus: slight improvement from November (Climate ~88.5 vs 88.1 prior), but still signalling weak growth. (European Commission)

🇪🇺 Euro area – prices

11:00 – Eurozone CPI y/y (Nov, final)

11:00 – Eurozone Core CPI y/y (Nov, final)

Final print; consensus = 2.2% headline, 2.4% core, matching flash. This locks in the inflation baseline for tomorrow’s ECB. (European Commission)

No big euro-periphery data prints today beyond usual smaller confidence/trade stats – the real action for EUR is tomorrow (ECB decision & presser).

🇺🇸 United States

Housing & credit

13:00 – MBA Mortgage Applications & 30-Year Mortgage Rate

Weekly report (7:00 ET). Prior composite index around 327.9, with markets watching if lower yields are starting to unlock demand again or if high prices keep buyers sidelined. (Liveauctioneers)

Labour / credit conditions

16:00 – Business Employment Dynamics (BED), Q1 2025 (BLS)

Quarterly data on job creation vs destruction by firm size/industry, released at 10:00 ET → 16:00 Zurich.

Not a trading “alarm bell” but important for macro narrative on labour cooling after the shutdown-delayed top-tier jobs data. (treasurydirect.gov)

All day – HY credit spreads (HY OAS)

FRED notes next release date 17 Dec for ICE BofA US HY OAS (daily). Spreads are hovering around 2.9%, implying risk-on but vulnerable if macro surprises negatively. (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

Energy – key release

16:30 – EIA Crude Oil Inventories (week ending 12 Dec)

10:30 ET standard release → 16:30 Zurich.

The main scheduled US data today: seen as critical for near-term inflation + risk-sentiment on energy, especially after recent oil weakness tied to Russia–Ukraine peace expectations and softer US data. (European Commission)

💼 Earnings – today’s key names

There’s no AAPL / MSFT / NVDA / TSLA / AMZN today. The “earnings spotlight” is mainly on semis & staples:

🇺🇸 US

Micron Technology (MU) – FY Q1 2026

Expected: today, 17 Dec 2025 (after US close). (European Commission)

Big for memory pricing, AI/server demand, PC + smartphone cycle.

Options market (per historical implied move tables) prices ~9–10% post-earnings move as typical for MU. (European Commission)

Lennar (LEN) & General Mills (GIS)

Calendars cluster these around this week; some list them as today, others show Lennar as already reporting yesterday. (irsauctions.gov)

Use your TradingView/Yahoo calendar to confirm exact BMO / AMC for your trading prep.

NeuroOne Medical Technologies (NMTC) – Q4 2025

Small cap, but flagged with an earnings release on 17 Dec; important if you track medical device / neurotech space. (Yahoo Finanzas)

🇫🇷 Europe

Sodexo (SW, Paris)

Several trackers show its next earnings release expected on 2025-12-17, but exact timing and confirmation depend on Sodexo’s IR page. (European Commission)

💸 Bond auctions – today

🇺🇸 United States – UST

From the upcoming Treasury auctions grid: (US500)

17:30 Zurich (11:30 ET, typical) – 17-Week T-Bill auction

Auction date: 17 Dec 2025, issue: 23 Dec 2025.

Front-end funding; relevant for money-market rates & bill curve.

19:00 Zurich (13:00 ET, typical) – 20-Year Bond (Re-opening)

Auction date: 17 Dec 2025, settlement: 31 Dec 2025.

Important for long-end term premium, curve shape (10s/20s/30s), and duration-heavy portfolios.

(Exact clock times aren’t printed in that grid, but 11:30 / 13:00 ET are the standard UST auction slots.)

🇯🇵 Japan – JGBs

1-Year Treasury Discount Bills (No.1351)

Auction date: 17 Dec 2025, per MoF calendar. (mof.go.jp)

Key for short-end JPY funding costs and BoJ policy transmission.

🌏 EM highlight

🇻🇳 Vietnam – Government bond auction

Local bond association notes 10-year & 5-year bonds auctioned today with sizeable issuance (VND 268T in 10-yr, ~38T in 5-yr). (vbma.org.vn)

Good barometer of EM local-currency demand in Asia.

🔁 Futures & options – expiries / IMM

From the Futures Expiration Calendar and FX calendars: (Strategic Energy Europe)

IMM Date – USD (futures) – 00:00

Marked as International Monetary Market (IMM) Date on several FX calendars today – important reference for quarterly currency & rate futures.

Key futures last trading / expiry (Dec-25 contracts):

VSTOXX Mini (FVSc1) – last trading day 17 Dec 2025.

S&P 500 VIX (VXc1) – last trading day 17 Dec 2025.

Brazil: iBovespa index (INDc1) & Bovespa WIN mini (WINc1) – last trading/expiry 17 Dec 2025.

USD/CAD (CANc1) – BMF futures – last trading 17 Dec 2025.

This makes today quite important for volatility and EM index positioning, even before Friday’s quadruple witching.

🔎 Revision watchlist (handle with extra caution)

Flag these in your Notion as “High revision risk”:

🇬🇧 UK CPI / RPI / PPI

Monthly price data can see non-trivial revisions, and seasonal factors sometimes get tweaked. Early big surprises shouldn’t be chased blindly. (European Commission)

🇩🇪/🇪🇺 IFO & CPI

IFO can be revised modestly; Eurozone CPI final is usually close to flash, but weights and seasonal adjustment can still generate small revisions – more about nuance than regime change. (European Commission)

🇳🇿 NZ GDP

NZ data are notoriously revision-prone due to smaller sample sizes and updated trade/inventory data – treat large beats/misses with some humility. (European Commission)

Top 10 Winners — 24h

Top 10 Losers — 24h

Today is a volatility cocktail: UK CPI/RPI/PPI at 08:00, IFO at 10:00, Eurozone CPI final at 11:00, then EIA at 16:30 — with UST supply (17w bills + 20Y) and VIX futures expiries layered on top.
BTC only looks constructive if it holds the reclaimed channel and defends the recent lows; the first reclaim zone is EMA16–EMA20 at 89.6k–90.1k.
ETH still looks tired: it’s consolidating on 2,920–2,880; if that base breaks, the downside opens toward 2,840 then 2,760 — best-case bounce is into 3,064–3,075 (EMA16–EMA20) before continuation.
USDT.D momentum is building — if dominance keeps extending above 6.28%, risk-off pressure stays on; failure to extend is your relief window.

That’s the map. Respect the event times, trade the levels, and keep size honest — today can whip both ways.