👋 GM
Morning from Basel. Today’s tape is a classic mix: geopolitics driving haven bids, macro prints shaping rates repricing, and crypto sitting in a fragile technical spot while positioning gets more crowded. US cash markets reopen today after the MLK holiday, with bills + earnings setting the intraday rhythm.
Today
Trump tariff threat tied to Greenland escalates Europe risk and pushes havens (gold/silver records, CHF firmer).
China LPR held (1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50%) keeping the credit-impulse signal steady into Asia risk tone.
UK labour data + BOE Gov. Bailey: GBP rates repricing risk stays live.
US Treasury bill auctions across tenors as US markets reopen: front-end rates sensitivity back on the desk.
NYSE doubles down on tokenization: 24/7 trading, instant settlement, stablecoin funding and on-chain settlement ambitions.
This Week
Feb 1: Trump stated 10% tariffs on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, Finland; said 25% in June until a Greenland deal.
Feb 7 (as soon as): EU said retaliatory tariffs on >$100B of U.S. goods (paused in 2025) could take effect.
WEF Annual Meetings (Davos) Day 2 continues: headlines are a real-time risk catalyst.
All-day ECOFIN meetings: EU policy tone runs alongside the tariff narrative.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
Macro
Safe Havens & Rates
Technical
Crypto
Global indices
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 32 — Fear (2026-01-20)
Yesterday: 44 — Fear (2026-01-19)
7-day average: 47.6
Δ vs yesterday: -12.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -15.6
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.01 — 2026-01-20
Yesterday: 1.51 — change vs yesterday: +0.50
7-day average: 1.33
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-01-13 | 1.88 |
2026-01-14 | 1.12 |
2026-01-15 | 0.88 |
2026-01-16 | 1.14 |
2026-01-17 | 1.30 |
2026-01-18 | 1.36 |
2026-01-19 | 1.51 |
2026-01-20 | 2.01 |
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.08 — 2026-01-20
Yesterday: 1.51 — change vs yesterday: +0.57
7-day average: 1.52
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-01-13 | 2.64 |
2026-01-14 | 1.32 |
2026-01-15 | 1.23 |
2026-01-16 | 1.51 |
2026-01-17 | 1.54 |
2026-01-18 | 1.43 |
2026-01-19 | 1.51 |
2026-01-20 | 2.08 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 18.84 | +18.79% | +24.60% | Moderate volatility; still a “normal-ish” regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 5.98% | N/D | N/D | Low-to-moderate USDT dominance: mild risk-on tilt / balanced liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 39.0
Quick read: RSI 39.0 → leaning weak/oversold rather than overheated.
On-chain
On-chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune) | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | +36.57% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 0.81% of total market cap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.01x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune)
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama)
Total 24h volume: 13.38B USD · 30D daily average: 9.80B USD · % vs 30D: +36.57%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko)
Spot volume 24h (top CEX): 25.85B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 3.21T USD · Spot turnover: 0.81%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko)
Total OI: 131.66B USD · Derivatives 24h volume: 132.41B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.01x (vol_24h / OI) · Derivatives/Spot volume ratio: 5.12x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures)
BTC funding: 0.0098% per period · ETH funding: 0.0086% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2)
Current gas: 0.04 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): Price made a new low today and weakness is showing; the near-term pivot is the EMA50 (92389.7981) with EMA20 (92564.2287) as the immediate reclaim line, while the higher-timeframe resistance remains EMA200 (99364.9364). A small 4H FVG remains above that could be covered before continuation lower.
ETH: Similar structure to BTC with notable weakness; EMA50 (3166.7937) is the key support line to hold, EMA20 (3187.8721) is the pivot to reclaim, and EMA200 (3295.5147) is the main resistance overhead. A downside continuation remains in play while momentum stays negative.
USDT.D: The chart read is bullish with a break of the prior high and a reclaim above the 50 EMA; a daily close above that prior-high zone keeps risk-off pressure elevated, while failure/rejection there opens a relief window.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds EMA50 (~92389.7981) and reclaims EMA20 (~92564.2287), then works higher with EMA200 (~99364.9364) as the key ceiling; ETH holds EMA50 (~3166.7937) and reclaims EMA20 (~3187.8721) with EMA200 (~3295.5147) as the upside barrier. Confirmation: USDT.D must reject/fail at the prior-high/50-EMA zone (or stay below it).
Bear case: BTC loses EMA50 (~92389.7981) and accepts below it, keeping the “new lows” path active; ETH breaks below EMA50 (~3166.7937) and accepts lower, keeping pressure on the complex. Confirmation: USDT.D must close above its prior-high/50-EMA zone to add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Tue, 20 Jan 2026 (Zurich time, CET, 24h)
Today’s main market catalysts
🇨🇳 China LPR (policy signal for credit impulse / CNH / Asia risk tone). (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 UK labour data + 🇬🇧 BOE Gov. Bailey (GBP rates repricing risk). (Forex Factory)
🇩🇪🇪🇺 ZEW sentiment + 🇩🇪 German PPI (EUR macro tone / growth-inflation mix). (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Treasury bill auctions (multiple tenors) + US markets reopen after MLK holiday (rates + USD sensitivity).
Geopolitics / Davos risk headlines (tariffs narrative back in play → risk-off impulse). (The Guardian)
📊 Economic data & central bank speakers (Zurich time)
02:00 — 🇨🇳 China: 1Y & 5Y Loan Prime Rate (LPR)
1Y 3.00% (prev 3.00%), 5Y 3.50% (prev 3.50%). (Forex Factory)
08:00 — 🇩🇪 Germany: PPI (m/m)
0.2% (forecast 0.0%). (Forex Factory)
08:00 — 🇬🇧 UK: Claimant Count / Earnings / Unemployment
Claimant Count Change 15.6K (forecast 20.1K)
Avg Earnings Index (3m/y) 4.6% (forecast 4.7%)
Unemployment Rate 5.1% (forecast 5.1%) (Forex Factory)
08:30 — 🇨🇭 Switzerland: PPI (m/m)
0.2% (forecast -0.5%). (Forex Factory)
10:00 — 🇪🇺 Eurozone: Current Account
20.3B (forecast 25.7B). (Forex Factory)
10:45 — 🇬🇧 BOE: Gov. Bailey speaks (Forex Factory)
11:00 — 🇩🇪 Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment
50.0 (prev 45.8) (Forex Factory)
11:00 — 🇪🇺 Eurozone: ZEW Economic Sentiment
36.7 (prev 33.7) (Forex Factory)
All day — 🇪🇺 ECOFIN meetings (Forex Factory)
All day — 🌍 WEF Annual Meetings (Davos), Day 2 (Forex Factory)
17:30 — 🇨🇭 SNB: Chairman Schlegel speaks (Forex Factory)
🏛️ Bond auctions (U.S. Treasury) — today
Bill auctions (auction closing times, ET → Zurich):
13W + 26W bills: 11:00 / 11:30 ET → 17:00 / 17:30 Zurich
6W + 52W bills: 12:00 / 13:00 ET → 18:00 / 19:00 Zurich
Street focus note: Investing.com flags 3M / 6M / 52W bill auctions today and provides prior yields (3M 3.570%, 6M 3.490%, 52W 3.380%). (Investing.com)
💰 Earnings (key ones today)
🇺🇸 Before US cash open (US opens 15:30 Zurich):
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — FLAG: large-cap healthcare (earnings today per weekly calendars). (Interactive Investor)
3M (MMM), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Fastenal (FAST), D.R. Horton (DHI), Fifth Third (FITB), KeyCorp (KEY) among notable pre-market reporters. (Nasdaq)
Estimates snapshot (selected):
MMM: EPS est $1.80, rev est $6.01B (Investing.com)
USB: EPS est $1.19, rev est $7.32B (Investing.com)
DHI: EPS est $1.93, rev est $6.59B (Investing.com)
FAST: EPS est $0.2599, rev est $2.04B (Investing.com)
Megacap check (NVDA/AAPL/MSFT/TSLA/AMZN): no megacap earnings scheduled for today in the sources above; keep them pinned for later in the week/month via your calendar workflow. (TradingView)
🛢️ Other market-moving prints
22:30 Zurich — 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 PM ET → 22:30 Zurich). (Investing.com)
⚠️ Revision watchlist (quick)
🇬🇧 Labour series can see meaningful back-revisions and methodology noise; treat the first market move as “headline-driven,” then reprice off details/speeches.
Always-on radar (your core “must-watch” list)
Your standing list of the “datos importantes para vigilar” is still the right backbone for prioritization when the calendar is crowded.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Global stocks retreat after Trump tariff threat tied to Greenland; European stocks fell, havens surged, US markets were closed for MLK Day.
Why it matters: Tariffs framed as a geopolitical lever (not just trade policy) reintroduces “headline gap risk” and raises odds of tit-for-tat retaliation.
Market angle: Haven bid (gold to ~$4,698 intraday; silver >$94.70 intraday; CHF firmer) while Europe cyclicals/trade-sensitive names take the hit.
Headline: Trump said 10% tariffs kick in Feb. 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, Finland; said 25% in June until a Greenland deal.
Why it matters: Expands tariff risk beyond “trade balance” into broader diplomatic bargaining, increasing uncertainty on legal authority and implementation.
Market angle: Watch EU response function; escalation risk is the vol driver more than first-order GDP math.
Headline: EU crisis talks considered a trade defense “bazooka”; EU executive arm said retaliatory tariffs on >$100B of U.S. goods (paused in 2025) could reactivate as soon as Feb. 7.
Why it matters: Retaliation risk shifts the market from “tariffs as noise” to “tariffs as regime.”
Market angle: If trans-Atlantic relations deteriorate, flows risk extends to Europe’s large holdings of U.S. assets (risk premium up).
Headline: WEF Annual Meetings (Davos) Day 2 and geopolitical risk headlines remain live catalysts.
Why it matters: Policy/tariff narratives can shift quickly during high-profile forums.
Market angle: Treat headline spikes as short-vol traps; keep liquidity and front-end rates on the radar.
Headline: Social post cited: Putin says Trump asked him to join the “Board of Peace.”
Why it matters: Adds to the noise-to-signal problem: political headlines can override micro/macro for short windows.
Market angle: Another reminder that geopolitics is the marginal driver of near-term vol right now.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: China LPR unchanged (1Y 3.00%, 5Y 3.50%).
Why it matters: A steady policy rate keeps the credit impulse signal stable; reduces immediate “surprise” risk for CNH.
Market angle: Asia risk tone stays more sensitive to geopolitics and global rates than to this print.
Headline: Germany PPI -0.2% m/m vs 0.0% forecast; Germany ZEW 50.0 (prev 45.8); Eurozone ZEW 36.7 (prev 33.7).
Why it matters: Growth/inflation mix matters for EUR rates; sentiment improvement can cushion, but tariffs can overwhelm.
Market angle: EUR trades the intersection of ZEW mood vs tariff risk premium; watch intraday reversals.
Headline: UK labour: Claimant count +15.6K (fcst 20.1K), earnings 4.6% (fcst 4.7%), unemployment 5.1% (fcst 5.1%) + BOE Gov. Bailey speaks 10:45.
Why it matters: UK labour is a direct input into BOE reaction function and GBP rate-path repricing.
Market angle: First move can be headline-driven; then Bailey becomes the real “confirmation candle.”
Headline: Switzerland PPI -0.2% m/m (fcst -0.5%) + SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks 17:30.
Why it matters: Switzerland inflation pipeline influences SNB tone; CHF can act as a geopolitics proxy.
Market angle: In risk-off jolts, CHF + gold bid can accelerate; don’t ignore SNB communication.
Headline: Eurozone current account 20.3B (fcst 25.7B) + all-day ECOFIN meetings.
Why it matters: Macro balance + policy coordination matters when trade tension rises.
Market angle: EUR macro is tradable, but tariffs are the bigger beta today.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: European stocks sold off (Stoxx Europe 600 -1.2% biggest drop in >2 months) on tariff threats; trade-sensitive names (e.g., LVMH, BMW) led declines; US futures around -1% while US cash markets were closed.
Why it matters: Reprices “political noise discount” back into equities and FX; raises correlation risk.
Market angle: Today’s US reopen is the real liquidity test: watch whether futures weakness carries into cash.
Headline: Earnings (pre-market focus): JNJ, MMM, USB, FAST, DHI, FITB, KEY; estimates listed for MMM/USB/DHI/FAST.
Why it matters: Early-cycle earnings tone can reinforce or fade geopolitics-driven risk-off.
Market angle: Use results + guidance to map sector rotation once US cash liquidity is back (15:30 Zurich open).
Headline: API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks at 22:30 Zurich.
Why it matters: Energy moves can amplify macro/rates sensitivity, especially with elevated geopolitical noise.
Market angle: If crude vol spikes late, it can bleed into risk pricing for the next session.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: NYSE’s platform details (press release): combines Pillar matching engine with blockchain post-trade; supports 24/7 ops, instant settlement, dollar-sized orders, fractional share trading, stablecoin-based funding, multi-chain settlement and custody; tokenized shares can be fungible with traditional securities and retain dividends/governance rights; distribution via non-discriminatory access to qualified broker-dealers.
Why it matters: This is a direct attempt to merge traditional market structure protections with crypto-native settlement mechanics.
Market angle: Watch regulatory posture and which chains/custody rails become “institutional default.”
Headline: ICE broader digital strategy: preparing clearing infrastructure for 24/7 and exploring tokenized collateral; working with banks including BNY and Citi to support tokenized deposits across ICE clearinghouses for off-hours funding and margin.
Why it matters: Tokenized cash/settlement is the bottleneck; tokenized deposits at clearinghouses is a serious solve attempt.
Market angle: Stablecoins vs tokenized deposits becomes a key plumbing competition for market share.
Headline: Context: JPMorgan AM launched a first tokenized money-market fund in December; Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, State Street also have tokenized money-market fund initiatives; some crypto stock tokens have shown price deviations and drawn regulatory concerns; skeptics warn tokenized securities could be used to scam investors.
Why it matters: Tokenization is moving from experiments to productization, while the “investor protection” debate hardens.
Market angle: Expect a regulatory premium/discount across platforms depending on settlement/custody design.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Sentiment: Fear & Greed dropped to 32 (Fear); Binance long/short ratios jumped (BTC 2.01, ETH 2.08).
Why it matters: Fear rising while long/short ratios rise suggests fragility: crowded positioning can exacerbate downside wicks.
Market angle: In a drawdown, watch for long unwind risk; in a bounce, watch for “squeeze then fade.”
Headline: On-chain/flows: net CEX outflows for BTC+ETH (-34.56M) alongside strong DEX activity (13.38B 24h, +36.57% vs 30D) and low ETH gas (0.04 GWEI).
Why it matters: Outflows can be constructive (HODL bias), but low gas + mixed volume composition can signal uneven real activity.
Market angle: Derivatives/spot ratio (5.12x) keeps “paper-driven” moves on watch; funding remains near neutral.
Top 10 Losers – 24h (CMC Top 100)
Closing Market Read
US cash reopens today into a headline-heavy tape: tariffs/Greenland risk is pushing havens while front-end supply (bills) and UK/Eurozone sentiment prints set the intraday macro tone. Crypto is technically fragile: BTC is sitting around its EMA50 (~92389.7981) with EMA20 (~92564.2287) as the reclaim line; ETH needs to hold EMA50 (~3166.7937) and reclaim EMA20 (~3187.8721). If BTC/ETH hold those pivots and USDT.D fails at its prior-high/50-EMA zone, you can get a relief window. If BTC/ETH break below their EMA50 lines and USDT.D closes above its prior-high/50-EMA zone, expect risk-off pressure to persist into the next session.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full setup for today. Trade the levels, respect the headlines, and let US reopen liquidity confirm the move.