👋
Morning from Therwil. Futures opened red and the tape feels headline-driven again: tariffs/legal uncertainty + renewed geopolitics are back in the driver’s seat.
It’s also a catalyst week with NVDA earnings (Wed 25 Feb) sitting in the middle of the risk calendar, so positioning looks nervous and reactive.
Highlights
Today
Rates headlines: Fed Waller (12:00) + Lagarde (16:30) — both can move EUR/USD and the front end fast.
Data: US Factory Orders (14:00) — secondary, but can still swing rates intraday.
Funding/defensiveness: USDT.D pressing 8.2% / 8.3%, with the 7.6–7.8% floor still the key base.
This Week
NVDA earnings (Wed 25 Feb) — the main “AI beta” catalyst referenced in the doc.
Macro hangover: Last week’s US GDP miss + hot Core PCE set the tone for “rates not done” whipsaws.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 5 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-23)
Yesterday: 9 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-22)
7D average: 8.0
Δ vs yesterday: -4.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -3.0
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.93 — 2026-02-23
Yesterday: 1.76 — change: +0.17
7D average: 2.11
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-16 | 1.85 |
2026-02-17 | 2.02 |
2026-02-18 | 2.13 |
2026-02-19 | 2.66 |
2026-02-20 | 2.21 |
2026-02-21 | 2.01 |
2026-02-22 | 1.76 |
2026-02-23 | 1.93 |
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.81 — 2026-02-23
Yesterday: 2.12 — change: +0.69
7D average: 2.61
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-16 | 2.77 |
2026-02-17 | 2.58 |
2026-02-18 | 2.31 |
2026-02-19 | 3.08 |
2026-02-20 | 2.95 |
2026-02-21 | 2.43 |
2026-02-22 | 2.12 |
2026-02-23 | 2.81 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 19.09 | -5.64% | -8.31% | Moderate volatility, relatively normal regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 8.24% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: more defensive liquidity bias. |
Global Crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 41.6
Quick read: RSI 41.6 (not overbought; not an “extreme” bounce signal by itself).
🔗 On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -52.93% vs 30D average. |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 0.78% of total market cap. |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.61x. |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral. |
Numeric detail
DEX Global (DeFiLlama)
24h volume: 5.21B USD · 30D daily avg: 11.07B USD · % vs 30D: -52.93%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko)
24h spot volume (top CEX): 17.86B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 2.30T USD · Spot turnover: 0.78%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko)
Total OI: 83.60B USD · 24h derivatives volume: 134.70B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.61x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot volume ratio: 7.54x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures)
BTC funding: 0.0069% per period · ETH funding: -0.0033% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2)
Current gas: 0.03 GWEI · very low congestion/activity
🔍 Market Lens
Btc:
Yesterday I pointed that the positive news was to hold the 66k.. and this evaporated in minutes when the futures market opened last night.. we made a new local low and even though I think we need to see a little bounce to liquidate longs, the primary side is on the bear.
Eth:
Same as btc but even weaker — the drop was bigger and the recovery shows not much strength. I expect (like on btc) a clean of the PWL and a reverse to continue falling.
Usdt:
Made a new local high and touched over 8.3%, it respected the floor between 7.6 and 7.8%. What we need to see to continue with the bull move is a close above the 8.2% zone and I think today we could really see it.
Market reflection:
The new tariff imposed by Trump together with the fear of a new war made a red opening on the futures market, and this on the week of the Nvidia earnings that are central on the agenda of investors. Nobody wants to make a big move beforehand and without knowing what the results are.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
⭐ Highest-impact market drivers today
🇺🇸 Fed: Governor Waller speaks — 12:00 Zurich (06:00 ET).
🇺🇸 U.S. Factory Orders (m/m) — 14:00 Zurich (08:00 ET).
🇪🇺 ECB: President Lagarde speaks — 16:30 Zurich (10:30 ET).
Economic calendar (by release time — Zurich CET)
🇨🇭 PPI (m/m) — 06:30 Zurich (00:30 ET).
🇪🇺 Germany Ifo Business Climate — 08:00 Zurich (02:00 ET).
🇬🇧 CBI Realized Sales — 10:00 Zurich (04:00 ET).
🇬🇧 BoE MPC Member Taylor speaks — 10:00 Zurich (04:00 ET).
🇺🇸 Fed Governor Waller speaks — 12:00 Zurich (06:00 ET).
🇺🇸 Factory Orders (m/m) — 14:00 Zurich (08:00 ET).
🇪🇺 ECB President Lagarde speaks — 16:30 Zurich (10:30 ET).
Market holidays
🇯🇵 Japan: Bank holiday (markets closed) — all day.
🇨🇳 China: Holiday (CNY) — all day.
🏦 Bond auctions (U.S. Treasury)
🇺🇸 13-Week T-Bill auction (auction date today) — results after bidding window. Auction date confirmed as 23 Feb 2026.
🇺🇸 26-Week T-Bill auction (auction date today) — scheduled for 23 Feb 2026.
Timing note (standard for bills): noncompetitive typically closes 11:00 ET, competitive 11:30 ET → 17:00 / 17:30 Zurich.
📊 Earnings (market-moving)
This week’s main “AI beta” catalyst is NVDA on Wed 25 Feb.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Tariffs are a wild card again after the Supreme Court struck down much of Trump’s tariffs; a new temporary 15% global tariff was imposed with fresh uncertainty on duration, refunds, and revenue.
Why it matters: Policy uncertainty hits investment/hiring decisions and can reprice growth/inflation assumptions quickly.
Market angle: This is the type of headline that drives “risk-off opens” and USD/rates volatility (especially into major earnings like NVDA).
Headline: Iran unrest coverage highlights large-scale violence and rising risk of U.S. escalation; separately, reporting suggests Trump may consider limited strikes on Iran.
Why it matters: Escalation risk feeds into oil risk premia and broad risk sentiment.
Market angle: Headline spikes can dominate intraday flows regardless of the calendar; expect jumpy futures and thinner liquidity sensitivity.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Today’s key speakers: Fed Waller (12:00 Zurich) and Lagarde (16:30 Zurich).
Why it matters: Speaker tone can move the front end and FX even without tier-1 data.
Market angle: Keep size disciplined into the speaker windows; watch for rate repricing.
Headline: Last week’s key U.S. macro mix: Advance GDP miss (1.4% vs 2.8%) + Core PCE hotter (0.4% vs 0.3%), plus weaker flash PMI prints.
Why it matters: Growth slowing + sticky inflation is the worst combo for clean narratives.
Market angle: It sustains two-way rates volatility and keeps rallies fragile.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Walmart (Feb 19) beat slightly on EPS/revenue but was pressured by cautious guidance.
Why it matters: Guidance often dominates beats in late-cycle/uncertain-policy regimes.
Market angle: Reinforces a “selective risk” tape — good prints don’t automatically lift the whole market.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: TradFi giants (BlackRock, Citadel Securities, Apollo/affiliates) disclosed DeFi governance token purchases or acquisition plans (UNI, ZRO, MORPHO) framed as “infrastructure alignment.”
Why it matters: Suggests institutional engagement shifting from equity/partnerships toward token ownership tied to product distribution strategy.
Market angle: The doc’s key point is muted price reaction in a weak tape — “economics/fee capture” still matters more than headlines.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: NVDA earnings on Wed 25 Feb highlighted as the week’s main “AI beta” catalyst.
Why it matters: Concentrated catalyst risk can suppress pre-event conviction and amplify post-print moves.
Market angle: Expect positioning to stay defensive / headline-sensitive until that print.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded five straight weeks of outflows, with ~$316M outflows in the holiday-shortened week ended Feb 20; spot ether ETFs also had a fifth straight outflow week (~$123M).
Why it matters: Persistent ETF outflows signal cooling institutional appetite during drawdowns.
Market angle: Fits your current lens: BTC weak and reactive; any bounce can be more “positioning/liquidation” than clean trend.
Closing Market Read
Futures opened red on tariffs + geopolitics, and with NVDA this week, traders are reluctant to commit risk.
BTC: the key tell remains 66k — you flagged it as the “positive news,” but the futures open erased it quickly with a new local low (spot shown 64,710).
ETH: even weaker than BTC (spot 1,856) with poor bounce quality; your base case stays downside after a PWL sweep attempt.
USDT.D: still the clean risk barometer — floor 7.6–7.8% held, and a close above 8.2% (after tagging 8.3%) would confirm the defensive trend.
Two outcomes only:
Hold: BTC reclaims/holds 66k + USDT.D fails to hold above 8.2% → relief bounce / long liquidations complete.
Break: BTC stays below 66k + USDT.D closes above 8.2% → pressure resumes, downside bias intact.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full read for today. Keep trades smaller into the speaker windows and headline risk, and let the levels (66k BTC, 8.2% USDT.D) do the talking.