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Morning — today is a classic “data + central bank + headline tape” setup.
Risk appetite is torn: equities look steady, but crypto trend signals are still heavy and sentiment is stuck in Fear.
With BOJ + Flash PMIs + UoM final + options expiries all landing today, the path is there — but the market still needs a catalyst.
Highlights
Today
🇯🇵 BOJ rate decision + statement + presser (policy pivot risk for global rates/FX).
🇪🇺 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 Flash PMIs (growth/inflation narrative; EUR rates sensitivity).
🇺🇸 US Flash PMIs + UoM Sentiment (final) (rates + risk sentiment).
🌍 WEF Davos (Day 5) headline risk.
⏳ Crypto weekly options expiry (Deribit) + CME Bitcoin Friday options.
This Week
🇺🇸 Intel (INTC) after-hours guidance disappointment (shares fell >10% after-hours).
🇪🇺 EU-Bills settlement (23/01/2026) tied to prior auction (liquidity angle).
🇺🇸 Macro prints referenced on the tape: GDP 4.4% (prior 4.3%) + initial jobless claims 200,000.
Macro headline risk cluster: Trump/Europe/Greenland framework uncertainty and follow-through.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
Technical
Crypto (TAAPI – BTC / ETH / SOL)
Global indices
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 24 – Extreme Fear (2026-01-23)
Yesterday: 20 – Extreme Fear (2026-01-22)
7D average: 34.7
Δ vs yesterday: +4.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -10.7
Quick read: Current value 24 (Extreme Fear).
Positioning – Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
=== BTCUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D) ===
Today: 2.48 – 2026-01-23
Yesterday: 2.32 – change vs yesterday: +0.16
7D average: 1.93
Date Ratio
2026-01-16 1.14
2026-01-17 1.30
2026-01-18 1.36
2026-01-19 1.51
2026-01-20 2.01
2026-01-21 2.54
2026-01-22 2.32
2026-01-23 2.48
=== ETHUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D) ===
Today: 3.45 – 2026-01-23
Yesterday: 2.81 – change vs yesterday: +0.64
7D average: 2.25
Date Ratio
2026-01-16 1.51
2026-01-17 1.54
2026-01-18 1.43
2026-01-19 1.51
2026-01-20 2.08
2026-01-21 2.92
2026-01-22 2.81
2026-01-23 3.45
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 15.64 | -7.46% | -6.63% | Moderate volatility, relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 6.17% | N/D | N/D | Low-moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on bias, reasonable balance between risk and liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excl. stables)
Basket average RSI: 40.9
Quick read: RSI 40.9.
On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | +54.79% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 0.92% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.17x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral. |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
24h total volume: 15.75B USD · 30D daily avg: 10.17B USD · % vs 30D: +54.79%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
Spot volume 24h (top CEX): 28.76B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 3.12T USD · Spot turnover: 0.92%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 124.02B USD · Derivatives volume 24h: 145.63B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.17x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 5.06x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0051% per period · ETH funding: 0.0017% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.03 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
Top Movers (CMC Top 100) – 2026-01-23 04:43Top 10 Winners – 24h
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT):
Price barely moved yesterday and the range was really tight, even though we continue the bounce started two days ago — I think upside is the prime side, and the old low will be difficult to see again in the next days. From the table, the key reclaim zone sits around EMA16–EMA50 (91565–91941), while the bigger trend filter remains EMA200 (98801).
ETH:
Looks much more sideways, closing yesterday negative and reactions are much weaker here — if we think on a positive day, the possibility to clean the PDL is really possible before raise. From the table, ETH still needs to reclaim EMA16–EMA50 (3109–3135), with EMA200 at 3273 as the higher-level trend filter.
USDT.D:
It also reflects indecision today — it tends to go down but the move is shy; we will see if we can break the lows and continue with the reversal on the move of the USDT. The key risk filter level shown is 6.17%: close above = risk-off pressure, rejection/failure = relief window.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds around 89874 and reclaims the EMA band near 91528–91941, while ETH holds around 2961 and reclaims 3109–3135; confirmation is USDT.D must reject/fail around 6.17% (stay below).
Bear case: BTC loses 89874 and fails to reclaim 91528–91941, while ETH loses 2961 and stays pinned below 3109–3135; confirmation is USDT.D must close above 6.17% to add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Fri, 23 Jan 2026 (Zurich time, CET / UTC+1)
Time conversion note: ForexFactory is set to Europe/Rome (UTC+1), which is the same as Zurich (CET) today → e.g., 09:15 Rome → 09:15 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
🔥 Top market movers to prioritize
🇯🇵 BOJ rate decision + statement + presser (policy pivot risk for global rates/FX) — 04:07 Zurich (plus statement/presser after; some items “tentative”). (Forex Factory)
🇪🇺 EZ/DE/FR Flash PMIs (growth/inflation narrative; EUR rates) — 09:15–10:00 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 US Flash PMIs + UoM Sentiment (final) (risk sentiment + rates) — 15:45–16:00 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
🌍 WEF Davos (Day 5) (headline/geopolitics risk spikes) — all day. (Forex Factory)
📅 Economic data & central banks (Zurich time)
Asia
🇯🇵 00:30 — National Core CPI y/y (2.4% vs 2.4% prior 3.0%) (Forex Factory)
🇯🇵 01:30 — Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.5 vs 50.1; prior 50.0) (Forex Factory)
🇯🇵 04:07 — BOJ Outlook Report + BOJ Policy Rate + Monetary Policy Statement + Press Conf. (some “tentative”) (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 Tentative — Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y (-7.5%) (Forex Factory)
Europe
🇬🇧 01:01 — GfK Consumer Confidence (-16 vs -17; prior -17) (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 08:00 — Retail Sales m/m (0.0%; prior -0.1%) (Forex Factory)
🇫🇷 09:15 — Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.4 vs 50.7) / Flash Services PMI (50.3 vs 50.1) (Forex Factory)
🇩🇪 09:30 — Flash Manufacturing PMI (47.8 vs 47.0) / Flash Services PMI (52.6 vs 52.7) (Forex Factory)
🇪🇺 10:00 — Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.1 vs 48.8) / Flash Services PMI (52.6 vs 52.4) (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.6) / Flash Services PMI (51.7) + MPC Member Greene speaks (Forex Factory)
🇪🇺 11:00 — ECB President Lagarde speaks (Forex Factory)
North America
🇨🇦 14:30 — Core Retail Sales m/m (1.0% vs -0.6%) + Retail Sales m/m (1.2% vs -0.2%) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 15:45 — Flash Manufacturing PMI (51.9 vs 51.8) + Flash Services PMI (52.9 vs 52.5) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:00 — Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (54.0) + Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (4.2%) + Tentative CB Leading Index m/m (Forex Factory)
🏢 Earnings today (largest/most relevant)
No megacap prints flagged for today (no AAPL/MSFT/NVDA/AMZN/TSLA on today’s key list).
Pre-market (US) scheduled for today:
🇺🇸 SLB, ERIC, FCNCA, BAH, WBS — expected before market open (actuals/guidance/market reaction pending). (Nasdaq)
Overnight notable mover impacting today’s tape:
🇺🇸 Intel (INTC): reported after-hours yesterday; guidance disappointed and shares fell >10% after-hours. (Investors)
🏦 Bond auctions / sovereign issuance
🇺🇸 No major Treasury coupon auction listed for today; this week’s short-bill activity has been active around Thu (e.g., 4-week bill auction dated 2026-01-22 in calendar feeds). (CME Group)
🇪🇺 EU-Bills settlement today (23/01/2026) from the EU auction held 21/01/2026 (settlement can matter for liquidity). (European Commission)
⏳ Futures & options expirations (key)
Crypto options expiry (Deribit weekly): 08:00 UTC → 09:00 Zurich (weekly Friday expiry). (Deribit Soporte)
CME Bitcoin Friday options: expire 16:00 ET → 22:00 Zurich (Friday settlement schedule). (CME Group)
For broader futures expiry/roll windows across indices/commodities/bonds, use the global calendars (scan by instrument). (Investing.com)
🌍 Geopolitical / major market-moving watch
WEF Annual Meetings (Davos) continuing today; expect headline-driven volatility in EUR/CHF rates + risk sentiment. (Forex Factory)
📉 Revision watchlist (what can materially revise later)
Flash PMIs (today) are the “flash” read → final revisions can shift the growth narrative. (Forex Factory)
UoM Sentiment is a revision point (today is the revised/final print). (Forex Factory)
Keep radar on the US inflation/labor pillars the market is hypersensitive to: Core PCE, CPI, NFP/ADP, plus COT positioning swings.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Trump launched a “Board of Peace” at Davos; major powers and some allies are reluctant to join, with concerns about mandate, governance, and participation terms.
Why it matters: It signals another potential shift in global diplomatic architecture and adds uncertainty around international coordination.
Market angle: Headline-driven volatility risk around geopolitics/alliances remains elevated during Davos.
Headline: Trump stepped back from threats on Greenland, describing a “framework for a future deal,” but details remain unclear and sovereignty lines remain contested by Denmark/Greenland leadership.
Why it matters: The uncertainty leaves room for renewed trans-Atlantic stress and repricing on any tariff/security follow-through.
Market angle: Risk sentiment can swing on incremental headlines; watch EUR/CHF rates sensitivity and broader risk beta.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: BOJ held rates steady, continuing a cautious approach as it gauges the impact of the last hike; the outlook report kept inflation trajectory toward target and provided growth projections.
Why it matters: BOJ policy remains a major driver for JPY, global rates spillovers, and risk conditions.
Market angle: BOJ messaging + today’s Japan CPI/PMI prints can move FX/rates and ripple into global risk.
Headline: China’s daily yuan fixing moved below 7 per dollar for the first time in over two years, signaling tolerance for appreciation and a firmer currency stance.
Why it matters: A stronger fixing can ease trade tensions and affect flows into Chinese assets.
Market angle: FX regime signaling can impact EM risk appetite and global USD narrative.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Stocks rose in a relief rally after Trump’s tariff U-turn; gold hit a new record above $4,900 and oil dropped about 2%.
Why it matters: The tape is still being driven by policy headlines alongside macro data.
Market angle: A “relief rally” can fade if follow-through clarity doesn’t arrive; gold strength keeps the defensive bid in view.
Headline: Intel guidance disappointed after-hours and shares fell >10%.
Why it matters: Guidance-driven moves can reset sentiment across semis/tech beta.
Market angle: Tech sensitivity can show up quickly in index futures and risk sentiment.
Headline: Corporate prints referenced: Procter & Gamble cut earnings outlook (shares up >2%); GE Aerospace shares dropped 7.4% on revenue-growth outlook concerns.
Why it matters: Guidance and margins remain the key earnings transmission channel to indices.
Market angle: Dispersion stays high; single-name shocks can spill into factor rotations.
Headline: Macro datapoints referenced: GDP 4.4% annualized (vs 4.3% prior estimate), initial jobless claims 200,000.
Why it matters: Growth + labor resilience influences the rates path and risk premia.
Market angle: Stronger data can support equities short-term, but may harden rates expectations.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Chainlink acquired Atlas IP (transaction ordering solution), integrating it into Chainlink SVR to accelerate its “non-toxic MEV” and OEV tooling across chains.
Why it matters: DeFi protocols’ ability to recapture liquidation-related value can shift the economics of lending and oracle infrastructure.
Market angle: Infrastructure narrative tailwinds can support ecosystem tokens when broader risk conditions allow.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Fear & Greed sits at 24 (Extreme Fear) while Binance long/short ratios are elevated (BTC 2.48; ETH 3.45).
Why it matters: Extreme fear + crowded positioning can create sharp squeezes, but also fragility if price fails.
Market angle: Expect air pockets around event windows; positioning makes liquidations/fast reversals more likely.
Headline: Net CEX outflows for BTC+ETH (-34.56M) suggest HODL bias, while DEX volume is strong versus 30D average (+54.79%).
Why it matters: The “where volume lives” split can signal risk appetite inside crypto even when trend is heavy.
Market angle: If spot participation stays thin (0.92% turnover) and derivatives remain dominant (Deriv/Spot 5.06x), moves can be fast and mechanical.
Closing Market Read
Reflexion:
Markets does know really well where to go and although we have, some indicators that are showing that we should move higher markets not decide yet, and I guess the macro pressure and markets its paying the price.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full setup for Friday: BOJ + PMIs + UoM final + expiry tape, with headline risk still active. Trade tight, respect the reclaim levels, and let USDT.D confirm the tone.