👋 Opening
Morning from Therwil. Today is a rates + risk-sentiment day: China set LPR early, the U.S. prints Consumer Confidence, and the Treasury runs a 2Y auction into a fragile tape.
Yesterday’s backdrop matters: U.S. equities sold off hard, bonds caught a bid, and gold stayed bid—classic “risk-off / flight-to-safety” behavior with trade + AI uncertainty in the narrative.
Highlights
Today
🇨🇳 PBoC Loan Prime Rate (1Y & 5Y LPR) — 02:15 Zurich
🇺🇸 Fed speakers cluster + Goolsbee (NABE) — 14:00 Zurich (+ more speakers on deck)
🇺🇸 US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) — 16:00 Zurich
🇺🇸 US 2Y Treasury auction — ~19:00 Zurich (typical timing)
📊 Earnings: Home Depot (AM), Realty Income (PM), Bank of Nova Scotia (today)
This Week
📅 NVDA flagged for Feb 25
🔁 Revision watchlist: Core PCE, CPI, NFP = the “must-not-miss” set that can reprice rates quickly
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
Macro — Safe havens & rates
Global indices snapshot
Index | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY – S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 682.39 | -1.02% | -1.67% | Contained move, relatively stable index backdrop. |
QQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 601.41 | -1.22% | -2.10% | Contained move, relatively stable index backdrop. |
Dow Jones – Industrial Average | ^DJI | 48804.06 | -1.66% | -2.66% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signals. |
Russell 2000 – Small Caps USA | ^RUT | 2620.99 | -1.61% | -2.53% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signals. |
DAX – Germany | ^GDAXI | 24991.97 | -1.06% | +0.02% | Contained move, relatively stable index backdrop. |
Nikkei 225 – Japan | ^N225 | 57355.84 | +0.93% | +1.76% | Contained move, relatively stable index backdrop. |
FTSE 100 – UK | ^FTSE | 10684.70 | -0.02% | +3.20% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signals. |
Hang Seng – Hong Kong | ^HSI | 26549.34 | -1.97% | -0.04% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signals. |
Taiwan Weighted – Taiwan | ^TWII | 34724.53 | +2.82% | +9.80% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signal. |
Sentiment
Fear & Greed (alternative.me)
Today: 8 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-24)
Yesterday: 5 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-23)
7D average: 7.7
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT ratio
Today: 2.42 (2026-02-24)
Yesterday: 1.93 (change: +0.49)
7D average: 2.16
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-17 | 2.02 |
2026-02-18 | 2.13 |
2026-02-19 | 2.66 |
2026-02-20 | 2.21 |
2026-02-21 | 2.01 |
2026-02-22 | 1.76 |
2026-02-23 | 1.93 |
2026-02-24 | 2.42 |
ETHUSDT ratio
Today: 2.70 (2026-02-24)
Yesterday: 2.81 (change: -0.11)
7D average: 2.63
Volatility & stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 vol) | 21.01 | +10.06% | +1.99% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 8.35% | N/D | N/D | Moderately-high USDT dominance: defensive liquidity bias. |
Crypto global RSI (Top 50 ex-stables)
Basket average RSI: 41.0
On-chain / flows
DEX Global (DeFiLlama)
24h volume: 8.19B USD
30D daily avg: 11.07B USD
% vs 30D: 26.05%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko)
Spot vol 24h (top CEX, sum): 29.69B USD
Total market cap: 2.27T USD
Spot turnover: 1.31%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko)
Total OI: 81.83B USD
Derivs vol 24h (top deriv venues, sum): 193.80B USD
Derivs turnover: 2.37x
Derivs/Spot vol ratio: 6.53x
Funding (Binance Futures)
BTC funding: 0.0057% per period
ETH funding: 0.0026% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2)
Current gas: 0.04 GWEI (very low activity / congestion)
🔍 Market Lens
BTC bias: Bear. We lost the 66k support yesterday and price is leading toward the 60k zone—patience is fine here, wait for clean short setups.
ETH bias: Bear. ETH is printing new lows after a liquidity sweep and rejection—trend remains down.
USDT dominance: Closed above 8.32% after tagging ~8.2, pushing toward the prior high and potentially the 9% zone = consistent risk-off backdrop.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
⭐ Top market movers to focus on
🇺🇸 US Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) — 16:00 Zurich (10:00 ET)
🇨🇳 PBoC Loan Prime Rate (1Y & 5Y LPR) — 02:15 Zurich (09:15 Beijing)
🇺🇸 US 2Y Treasury auction (new 2-year note) — ~19:00 Zurich (13:00 ET typical)
🇨🇳 China
02:15 Zurich (09:15 Beijing) — PBoC Loan Prime Rate (1Y, 5Y)
🇬🇧 UK
13:00 Zurich (12:00 UK) — CBI Realized Sales
🇺🇸 United States
Macro / Data
15:00 Zurich (09:00 ET) — FHFA House Price Index (m/m)
15:00 Zurich (09:00 ET) — S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI (y/y)
16:00 Zurich (10:00 ET) — Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Fed speakers (rate-path sensitivity)
14:00 Zurich (07:00 CT) — Fed’s Goolsbee speaks (NABE conference)
Also on deck: Fed commentary cluster incl. Collins / Waller / Cook / Bostic
🏦 Bond auctions (U.S. Treasury)
🇺🇸 2-Year Note auction — Tue Feb 24 (auction day)
🇺🇸 4-Week Bill auction — Tue Feb 24 (auction day)
🇺🇸 8-Week Bill auction — Tue Feb 24 (auction day)
📊 Earnings (notable)
🇺🇸 Home Depot (HD) — Q4, AM (pre-market)
🇺🇸 Realty Income (O) — Q4, PM (after close)
🇨🇦 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) — (on the docket today)
🔁 Revision watchlist (keep radar on)
Core PCE, CPI, NFP are the “must-not-miss” set for the week ahead.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Trump considers new national security tariffs after Supreme Court ruling
Why it matters: Tariff uncertainty can reprice inflation expectations and growth risk quickly, especially if the policy path looks unstable.
Market angle: Adds headline-vol risk; supports defensive positioning (rates bid / gold bid) until clarity improves.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: U.S. “flight to safety” tape: bonds rallied, yields fell, gold climbed as stocks sold off
Why it matters: When equities drop and duration catches a bid, the market is telling you risk premia are rising.
Market angle: Watch today’s Consumer Confidence + Fed speak cluster for whether the rates narrative stabilizes or re-accelerates.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Dow fell >800 points on AI + trade uncertainty; software hit hard
Why it matters: If AI-demand skepticism bleeds into earnings expectations, it becomes a broader risk asset de-rating problem.
Market angle: Risk-off pressure can keep crypto beta offered; rallies likely need clean level reclaim + calmer rates.
Headline: European private lenders’ shares tumbled (EQT, Partners Group, CVC, ICG) on portfolio-quality fears
Why it matters: Credit/alt managers are sensitivity points in a de-risking phase; weakness here often signals tighter financial conditions.
Market angle: Reinforces defensive bias; watch for spillover to cyclicals and high-beta tech.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Terraform plan administrator sued Jane Street alleging insider trading tied to Terraform’s collapse
Why it matters: Legal risk + market-structure scrutiny can hit institutional participation and risk appetite across the sector.
Market angle: Any escalation headline can be a volatility catalyst; keep leverage tight into event windows.
Headline: Hyperliquid-based “Based” raises $11.5M Series A led by Pantera (equity + token warrants)
Why it matters: Signals continued VC appetite for distribution layers on top of on-chain trading infra, plus a push toward consumer “superapps.”
Market angle: Supports the Hyperliquid ecosystem narrative, but near-term price action still depends on risk tone + BTC structure.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Based roadmap targets AI-driven “agentic commerce” (financial agents across perps + prediction markets + spending)
Why it matters: If agents become the UI for trading/spending, distribution + compliance become the moat, not just execution.
Market angle: Narrative tailwind for AI x trading products, but timing is later (more detail expected Q2 2026 per doc).
🪙 Crypto
Headline: BTC and ETH remain weak; USDT dominance rising
Why it matters: Rising USDT dominance + heavy tape usually means liquidity is rotating to cash-like exposure and risk appetite is constrained.
Market angle: Treat bounces as tactical unless levels are reclaimed; derivatives-led flow can accelerate moves both ways.
Closing Market Read
Two outcomes (levels to hold/break):
Hold scenario: BTC reclaims 66k and holds; ETH stabilizes above current ~1,835 and pushes back toward the ~2,000 area (near short EMAs in the doc).
Break scenario: BTC fails below 66k and pressure continues toward 60k; ETH continues making new lows while USDT dominance pushes higher toward 9%.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full setup for today. Keep size tight into Consumer Confidence + the 2Y auction, and let levels do the talking.