👋GM
Good morning — Wednesday is stacked. We get a full U.S. “growth + inflation pipeline” cluster (Retail Sales + PPI + Current Account), then Beige Book to round out the session.
Overlay that with bank earnings tone, Iran headline risk, and a busy crypto-policy tape heading into Thursday’s Senate markup.
Crypto risk is holding up with solid 7D momentum, but positioning cooled hard overnight — the kind of setup that can either reset cleanly or whip both sides.
Highlights
Today
🇺🇸 14:30 — US Retail Sales + PPI (incl. Core PPI) + Current Account (cluster): rates + growth impulse in one print window.
🏦 🇺🇸 BAC / C / WFC earnings (pre-market): credit + NII + guidance as the real “macro proxy.”
🇺🇸 20:00 — Fed Beige Book: narrative risk late session (rates/FX sensitivity).
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Crude Oil Inventories: oil ↔ inflation sensitivity, especially with Iran headlines.
USDT.D broke a key support zone; market will watch whether the 50 EMA can now act as support, with 5.51% flagged as a major magnet zone.
This Week
🇺🇸 Thu (Senate Banking) — crypto market-structure bill markup with 75+ proposed amendments (stablecoin yield, ethics/anti-corruption, mixer definitions, developer protections, etc.).
🇺🇸 Fri 16 Jan — next standard US monthly options expiration (OPEX) (positioning/vol sensitivity).
🇺🇸 End of month Fed meeting context: CPI held at 2.7% y/y and core 2.6% y/y, supporting a “wait-and-see” stance unless labor weakens.
Iran headline risk stays live after Trump’s “help is on its way” messaging and evacuation comments; oil sensitivity remains high.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro
🌐 Macro – Safe Havens & Rates
📉 Technical
Global Indexes (yfinance)
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 48 — Neutral (2026-01-14)
Yesterday: 26 — Fear (2026-01-13)
7D average: 30.0
Δ vs yesterday: +22.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +18.0
Positioning – Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Today 1.12 vs Yesterday 1.88 (7D avg 2.03)
ETHUSDT — Today 1.32 vs Yesterday 2.64 (7D avg 2.27)
BTC ratio history (1D): 2026-01-07 1.48 • 01-08 2.15 • 01-09 2.19 • 01-10 2.26 • 01-11 2.27 • 01-12 2.33 • 01-13 1.88 • 01-14 1.12
ETH ratio history (1D): 2026-01-07 1.38 • 01-08 2.10 • 01-09 2.35 • 01-10 2.59 • 01-11 2.58 • 01-12 2.34 • 01-13 2.64 • 01-14 1.32
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 15.98 | +5.69% | +8.34% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 5.73% | N/A | N/A | Low–moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on tilt / balanced liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 mcap, excl. stables)
Basket average RSI: 66.0
Quick read: RSI 66.0 (overbought-leaning; correction risk elevated).
🔗 On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | +27.21% vs 30D average. |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.42% of total mcap. |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivs turnover: 2.10x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Near-neutral overall. |
Numeric detail
BTC netflow: 34.49M USD • ETH netflow: 64.59K USD • Total: 34.56M USD
DEX 24h vol: 13.19B USD • 30D daily avg: 10.37B USD • vs 30D: +27.21%
Spot 24h (top CEX): 47.69B USD • Total mcap: 3.35T USD • Spot turnover: 1.42%
Derivs OI: 136.23B USD • Derivs 24h vol: 285.88B USD • Turnover: 2.10x • Derivs/Spot vol: 5.99x
Funding: BTC 0.0001% per period • ETH 0.0100% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): 0.03 GWEI (very low)
📊 Top Movers
Top 10 Winners — 24h/ Top 10 Losers — 24h
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT):
Broke the range with strength and is pushing toward 99,000, but rejected near the EMA200 ~ 99,514 — a clean read is hold above EMA50 ~ 91,878 as support to keep the push alive, or a reclaim of the prior range to flush late longs if momentum fades.
ETH:
Similar structure — the goal is ~3,500, with the key “must-hold” pivot at EMA200 ~ 3,295; if volatility cools, a reclaim/hold of EMA50 ~ 3,141 is the cleaner reset level to watch.
USDT.D:
The dominant risk filter is whether dominance can hold above ~5.73% (risk-off pressure building); continued failure/rejection keeps a relief window open toward the 5.51% magnet zone you flagged.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds EMA50 ~ 91,878 and re-accepts the move toward 99,000 / EMA200 ~ 99,514, while ETH holds EMA200 ~ 3,295 and presses toward ~3,500; confirmation requires USDT.D to fail/reject and stay soft (not sustaining above ~5.73%).
Bear case: BTC loses EMA50 ~ 91,878 and fails to re-accept below ~99,514, pulling price back into a range-reclaim / long-cleanout path; ETH loses EMA200 ~ 3,295 and drifts back toward the ~3,141 zone; confirmation requires USDT.D to close above ~5.73% and add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Wed, 14 Jan 2026 (Zurich time CET / UTC+1)
🔥 Top market movers to watch
🇺🇸 14:30 — US Retail Sales + PPI (incl. Core PPI) + Current Account (cluster release): big “rates + growth” combo (inflation pipeline + consumer demand). (Forex Factory)
Why it matters: Core PPI / PPI are leading inflation signals and can shift Fed expectations fast.
🇺🇸 20:00 — Fed Beige Book (economic conditions narrative; can move rates/FX late session). (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Crude Oil Inventories (oil → inflation sensitivity). (Forex Factory)
🏦 🇺🇸 Major bank earnings (pre-market): BAC, C, WFC (tone on credit, NII, consumer strength). (Investing.com)
📅 Full day calendar (Zurich CET)
Asia / Overnight
🇯🇵 00:50 — M2 Money Stock y/y (Actual 1.7% | Forecast 1.9% | Prev 1.7%) (Forex Factory)
🇳🇿 01:00 — ANZ Commodity Prices m/m (Actual -2.1% | Prev -1.6%) (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 03:24 — Trade Balance (Actual 809B | Forecast 805B | Prev 793B) (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 03:24 — USD-Denominated Trade Balance (Actual 114.1B | Forecast 114.3B | Prev 111.7B) (Forex Factory)
🇯🇵 07:00 — Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y (Actual 14.8%) (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 (Tentative, local release day) — M2 Money Supply y/y (Forecast 8.0% | Prev 8.0%) (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 (Tentative, local release day) — New Loans (Forecast 820B | Prev 390B) (Forex Factory)
Europe
🇬🇧 09:00 — MPC Member Taylor speaks (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 (Tentative) — UK 10Y Gilt Auction (4.61 | 3.1) (Forex Factory)
🇩🇪 (Tentative) — Germany 30Y Bund Auction (3.26 | 1.3) (Forex Factory)
US session
🇺🇸 14:30 — Core PPI m/m (Forecast 0.2% | Prev 0.1%) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 14:30 — PPI m/m (Forecast 0.2% | Prev 0.3%) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast 0.4% | Prev 0.4%) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Retail Sales m/m (Forecast 0.5% | Prev 0.0%) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Current Account (Forecast -235B | Prev -251B) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 15:50 — FOMC Member Paulson speaks (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:00 — Business Inventories m/m (Forecast 0.1% | Prev 0.2%) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:00 — Existing Home Sales (Forecast 4.21M | Prev 4.13M) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:00 — FOMC Member Miran speaks (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 16:30 — MPC Member Ramsden speaks (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Forecast -1.7M | Prev -3.8M) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 18:00 — FOMC Members Bostic + Kashkari speak (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 20:00 — Beige Book (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 20:10 — FOMC Member Williams speaks (Forex Factory)
🏦 Earnings today (focus list)
Pre-market (US):
🇺🇸 Bank of America (BAC) — scheduled; market watching NII + credit quality. (Investing.com)
🇺🇸 Citigroup (C) — scheduled; market watching guidance + buybacks/credit. (Investing.com)
🇺🇸 Wells Fargo (WFC) — scheduled; market watching expenses + NII trajectory. (Investing.com)
From yesterday (carryover into today’s positioning):
🇺🇸 JPMorgan (JPM) — reported; headlines note earnings beat on adj. basis but stock/sector tone weighed on markets. (Barron's)
Megacap flag: None of AAPL/MSFT/NVDA/AMZN/TSLA are on today’s main earnings slate (no megacap prints today).
🧾 Bond auctions
🇬🇧 UK 10Y auction (tentative) — on today’s calendar. (Forex Factory)
🇩🇪 Germany 30Y auction (tentative) — on today’s calendar. (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 No major US Treasury auction listed for today; next day on Treasury’s schedule includes auctions on Thu, 15 Jan 2026 (e.g., 20Y bond / 10Y TIPS per the tentative schedule). (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
🗓️ Futures & options expirations
No major monthly equity OPEX today. Next standard US monthly options expiration: Fri, 16 Jan 2026. (Macroption)
Energy micro-events exist (e.g., WTI weekly options can have settlement dates mid-week), but today is not a broad “expiry risk” day like monthly OPEX/quarterly witching. (CME Group)
🌍 Geopolitical / macro tape (what can spill into rates/oil)
Oil-sensitive inflation backdrop remains in focus amid Middle East tension headlines and tariff rhetoric tied to Iran trade flows. (Reuters)
♻️ Revision watchlist (quick)
🇺🇸 Retail Sales often see meaningful backward revisions → watch both headline and “control group” tone. (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 Loans/M2 (tentative timing) can print with narrative whiplash versus expectations—keep sizing tight around the release window. (Forex Factory)
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Trump told Iranian protesters “help is on its way,” urged Americans in Iran to consider evacuating, and ruled out talks until the killing of protesters stops; reports cited a death toll surpassing 2,000 and arrests above 16,000.
Why it matters: This raises near-term escalation risk (military / non-kinetic options), with second-order impacts through oil and broader risk sentiment.
Market angle: Oil becomes a volatility amplifier into today’s data cluster; headline spikes can override “good data” for brief windows.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: U.S. CPI held 2.7% y/y in December; core CPI 2.6% y/y (cooler than expected), giving the Fed breathing room amid a cooling labor market; Trump continued public attacks on Powell.
Why it matters: Inflation “not re-accelerating” supports the Fed’s pause bias — but today’s PPI/Core PPI is the next pipeline check.
Market angle: Rates sensitivity stays high: any upside PPI surprise can re-price cuts quickly, hitting duration and high-beta crypto.
Headline: Investors appeared to relax (for now) around the Powell investigation/Fed-independence drama; yields slipped after softer core CPI.
Why it matters: A narrative de-escalation reduces tail risk — until the next headline.
Market angle: “Calmer rates” + “cooler positioning” is exactly when spot can trend again — unless data breaks it.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Dow fell 0.8%, weighed by JPMorgan and Visa; JPM reported a 7% drop in quarterly profit on revenue that missed forecasts and the stock fell ~4%; oil rose ~2.8%.
Why it matters: Bank earnings are the cleanest read on credit conditions and consumer resilience as labor cools.
Market angle: Today’s BAC/C/WFC prints can swing the whole “soft landing vs credit crack” narrative — watch financials and the dollar around the open.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Senators filed 75+ amendments ahead of a Senate Banking Committee markup of a major crypto market-structure bill, including proposals targeting stablecoin yield, ethics/anti-corruption, and mixer definitions.
Why it matters: Stablecoin yield language can directly impact on-chain business models and exchange incentive structures; ethics provisions remain a negotiation sticking point per the report.
Market angle: Policy volatility can show up as sector rotation (stables/DeFi infra vs risk tokens) rather than just “BTC up/down.”
Headline: 21Shares listed a bitcoin + gold ETP (ticker BOLD) on the London Stock Exchange, with monthly rebalancing and a 0.65% annual fee; it cited UK retail access after the FCA lifted a retail ban in Oct 2025.
Why it matters: It expands regulated “barbell exposure” (BTC growth + gold stability) for UK retail, and signals continued product iteration post-access expansion.
Market angle: Product access stories are slow-burn bullish for flows — but price still obeys macro (rates, dollar) on event days.
Headline: Bloomberg reported Bitpanda is eyeing a Frankfurt IPO in H1 2026 at a reported valuation of €4–5B, with banks including Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Deutsche Bank mentioned.
Why it matters: Another major exchange IPO pipeline item reinforces the “public markets window” theme for crypto firms.
Market angle: IPO narratives tend to support beta when risk is stable — but they won’t save price through a bad rates shock.
Headline: Polygon Labs announced agreements totaling $250M+ to acquire Coinme and Sequence to build its “Open Money Stack” payments push (wallet infra, on/off-ramps, cross-chain orchestration).
Why it matters: This is a clear pivot toward regulated payments rails and distribution (licenses + infra), not just “scaling tech.”
Market angle: Payments narratives can catalyze ecosystem attention — but you still want confirmation from broader risk (USDT.D + rates).
Closing Market Read
Today is one of those sessions where 14:30 can decide the whole day: Retail Sales + Core PPI is the rates/growth gut-check, and Beige Book can re-price the narrative late.
For crypto, BTC is pushing the post-breakout path but rejected near ~99.5k (EMA200) — clean continuation wants EMA50 ~ 91.9k to hold, otherwise the market may reclaim the old range to wash longs.
ETH is the same playbook: hold ~3,295 (EMA200) and keep the ~3.5k path open; lose it and you’re back to defending the ~3,141 reset zone.
The confirmation filter is still USDT.D: sustained strength above ~5.73% = risk-off pressure, while continued failure keeps the relief window open toward 5.51%.
Still i aim to think that now we will have a few days or week of risk on in crypto.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the setup. Trade the levels, respect the 14:30 volatility, and let USDT.D confirm the risk regime before you size up.