👋 Opening
Morning from Therwil!
Risk is still fragile: sentiment is extreme fear, flows look slightly risk-on (net CEX outflows), while price structure in majors remains below key supply / trend anchors.
Today’s tape is likely to stay contained into the main catalyst: NVDA earnings after the US close, plus US Treasury auctions as the rates “moment”.
Highlights
Today
NVDA earnings (after US close) + US Treasury auctions → the main volatility trigger for risk sentiment and rates.
Australia CPI → Asia-led rates/AUD impulse.
Trump State of the Union → tariffs/affordability framing + headline risk.
AI narrative shock (Citrini memo) still shaping tech/IPO appetite; markets are “thirsty for a narrative”.
This Week
Major software earnings test (Salesforce, Workday, Snowflake, Zoom) as AI-disruption fears keep driving factor moves.
IPO pipeline reset: bankers expect mega-offerings to dominate while many smaller PE-backed software names wait.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 11 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-25)
Yesterday: 8 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-24)
7D average: 8.1
Δ vs yesterday: +3.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +2.9
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT
Today: 2.13 (2026-02-25)
Yesterday: 2.42 (change: -0.29)
7D average: 2.16
Date | Ratio
2026-02-18: 2.13
2026-02-19: 2.66
2026-02-20: 2.21
2026-02-21: 2.01
2026-02-22: 1.76
2026-02-23: 1.93
2026-02-24: 2.42
2026-02-25: 2.13
ETHUSDT
Today: 2.26 (2026-02-25)
Yesterday: 2.70 (change: -0.44)
7D average: 2.62
Date | Ratio
2026-02-18: 2.31
2026-02-19: 3.08
2026-02-20: 2.95
2026-02-21: 2.43
2026-02-22: 2.12
2026-02-23: 2.81
2026-02-24: 2.70
2026-02-25: 2.26
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 vol) | 19.55 | -6.95% | -3.65% | Moderate volatility, relatively normal regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 8.16% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance → more defensive liquidity bias. |
Global Crypto RSI Top 50
Basket average RSI: 47.1
🔗 On-chain — CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / mild risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -26.78% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.22% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.87x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Near-neutral funding. |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: 34.49M USD · ETH netflow: 64.59K USD · Total: 34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 8.06B USD · 30D daily avg: 11.00B USD · % vs 30D: 26.78%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
Spot 24h volume (top CEX): 28.38B USD (10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 2.33T USD · Spot turnover: 1.22%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 100.00B USD · Derivatives 24h volume: 187.34B USD (10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.87x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 6.60x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0024% per period · ETH funding: 0.0025% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.04 GWEI · Very low gas → low activity / low congestion.
🔍 Market Lens
BTC: reacted overnight in the Asian session. We saw price fail to maintain the 66k mark (daily supply), and it was sharply rejected. Today we should get confirmation: either we rotate back into the 65k–72k range, or we continue the downside.
ETH: has a similar setup: rejection at the supply zone and a push to get back into the range. Yesterday ETH showed a stronger move and led the reaction — we’ll see if it stays that way today.
USDT dominance is pulling back and could be a retest of the broken range to continue higher. If we close below 8.16, mood improves across risk.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Wed, 25 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
⭐ Top movers to watch
🇦🇺 Australia CPI (Jan) — inflation print can swing rates / AUD crosses.
🇺🇸 NVDA earnings (megacap / AI bellwether) — likely to move NQ / SOX / risk sentiment.
🇺🇸 US 5Y Treasury auction (size + tails) — key rates event in this macro regime.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — energy + inflation impulse watch.
🌍 Economic calendar (by release time — Zurich CET)
01:30 — 🇦🇺 Australia
CPI m/m: 0.4% (fcst 0.2%, prev 1.0%)
CPI y/y: 3.8% (fcst 3.7%, prev 3.8%)
Trimmed Mean CPI m/m: 0.3% (fcst 0.4%, prev 0.2%)
Construction Work Done q/q: -0.1% (fcst 1.2%, prev 0.1%)
03:00 — 🇺🇸 United States
President Trump speaks (headline risk)
06:00 — 🇯🇵 Japan
BOJ Core CPI y/y: 1.8% (prev 1.9%)
08:00 — 🇩🇪 Germany
Final GDP q/q: 0.3% (prev 0.3%)
GfK Consumer Climate: -23.0 (prev -24.1)
(China — listed by local release date) — 🇨🇳 China
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y — Tentative: -9.5%
09:40 — 🇦🇺 Australia
RBA Gov Bullock speaks
10:00 — 🇨🇭 Switzerland
UBS Economic Expectations: -4.7
11:00 — 🇪🇺 Eurozone
Final Core CPI y/y: 2.2% (prev 2.2%)
Final CPI y/y: 1.7% (prev 1.7%)
14:30 — 🇨🇦 Canada
Corporate Profits q/q: 7.6%
15:00 — 🇨🇳 China
CB Leading Index m/m: -0.1%
15:30 — 🇺🇸 United States
FOMC Member Barkin speaks
16:30 — 🇺🇸 United States
Crude Oil Inventories: fcst 1.8M (prev -9.0M)
17:00 — 🇺🇸 United States
FOMC Member Schmid speaks
19:20 — 🇺🇸 United States
FOMC Member Musalem speaks
🏦 Bond auctions (market-moving)
🇺🇸 US Treasury: 5-Year Note auction — $70B (Auction date 25 Feb, issue 02 Mar 2026)
🇺🇸 US Treasury: 2-Year FRN auction (Auction date 25 Feb, issue 27 Feb 2026)
🇺🇸 US Treasury: 17-Week Bill auction (Auction date 25 Feb)
(Treasury auctions typically price at 13:00 ET → 19:00 Zurich; treat as the key “rates moment” even if the calendar doesn’t show a time.)
💼 Earnings (major + market-relevant)
⭐ 🇺🇸 NVIDIA (NVDA) — MEGACAP FLAG
Report: After US close → ~22:00 Zurich
Webcast: 23:00 Zurich (2:00pm PT)
What matters: guidance (next qtr / FY), gross margin commentary, and any “AI capex demand” signal.
Other notable reporters today (selected)
🇺🇸 Alibaba (BABA) AM, CrowdStrike (CRWD) PM, Ross Stores (ROST) PM, AutoZone (AZO) AM
🗺️ Other market-moving / headline risk
🇺🇸 IMF publishes its U.S. policy review (“Article IV”) and Georgieva presser (policy/tariff/fiscal framing can hit rates + USD narrative).
📌 Revision watch (keep on radar)
Core PCE is one of the Fed’s most-watched inflation gauges (not today’s release, but it’s a recurring “revision-sensitive” market driver).
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Trump’s State of the Union focused on the economy, affordability, and immigration enforcement; came after a Supreme Court legal defeat on signature tariffs, with midterms looming.
Why it matters: Tariffs/affordability messaging is directly tied to inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, and policy risk premia.
Market angle: Headline sensitivity stays elevated (tariff path + enforcement + geopolitical remarks), especially into rate-setting catalysts.
Headline: Trump said new 10% global tariffs took effect; he floated 15% on social media but affirmed 10% officially.
Why it matters: Tariffs feed into inflation narratives and trade uncertainty.
Market angle: USD/rates can reprice on tariff escalation probability; risk assets react via growth/inflation mix.
Headline: The administration is weighing possible military strikes on Iran; Trump said Iran wants to make a deal but hasn’t promised never to seek nuclear weapons.
Why it matters: Geopolitical escalation risk can hit energy and broader risk sentiment.
Market angle: Watch oil + vol as the geopolitical “tail-risk” premium.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Australia CPI (Jan) is on deck early Zurich time; RBA Gov Bullock speaks later.
Why it matters: CPI sets the near-term path for AU rates expectations.
Market angle: AUD crosses + front-end rates are the first movers; spills into global risk if inflation surprises.
Headline: Japan BOJ Core CPI y/y (1.8% vs 1.9% prior) and Eurozone final CPI/core prints.
Why it matters: Inflation persistence remains the anchor for policy expectations.
Market angle: Rates volatility remains the transmission channel into equities/crypto beta.
Headline: Multiple Fed speakers (Barkin, Schmid, Musalem) and US Treasury auctions (5Y note, 2Y FRN, 17W bill).
Why it matters: Auctions + Fed tone can move real yields and risk sentiment.
Market angle: Treat the auction window (~19:00 Zurich pricing assumption) as a key intraday pivot for BTC/NQ correlation.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Stocks rebounded Tuesday as Meta announced a >$100B AI chip deal with AMD, helping offset the prior AI-driven selloff.
Why it matters: The tape remains hypersensitive to AI capex / supply chain narratives.
Market angle: Semis are the sentiment lever; big-ticket AI spend can stabilize risk even after narrative shocks.
Headline: A viral “doomsday” AI memo (Citrini Research) sparked sharp declines in names mentioned (including DoorDash, Visa, Mastercard, ServiceNow, Blackstone).
Why it matters: Narrative-driven selloffs can tighten financial conditions quickly, especially in crowded growth factors.
Market angle: Expect higher dispersion and faster factor rotations; avoid over-sizing into headline-driven gaps.
Headline: Tech IPO pipeline cooled: bankers expect mega-offerings to dominate; many smaller PE-backed software firms delay.
Why it matters: IPO windows reflect risk appetite and equity volatility regimes.
Market angle: If tech vol stays elevated, “quality/megacap” bids persist while long-duration/software stays fragile.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Bankers expect select crypto companies to fare better than pure tech in IPO markets; Kraken is mentioned as a potential debut (recently valued at $20B); Circle cited as a 2025 IPO standout.
Why it matters: Crypto equity issuance is a proxy for broader crypto market confidence and liquidity conditions.
Market angle: Positive crypto IPO tape can support sentiment even when tech IPOs stall.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Citrini Research’s fictional 2028 memo scenario amplified fears of AI-driven software price wars, pressure on intermediaries (payments), and white-collar labor disruption.
Why it matters: Investors are actively repricing business model durability under AI.
Market angle: Expect continued volatility in software multiples; the “AI threat vs AI spend” push-pull is the core driver.
Headline: “AI chip war” dynamics: Google’s TPU ambitions vs Nvidia’s manufacturing lockup; Meta ended up signing a new Nvidia deal (including large-scale CPU deployment without GPUs).
Why it matters: Compute supply constraints and capex allocation determine the next leg of AI trade leadership.
Market angle: NVDA earnings/guidance is not just a stock event — it’s a macro risk sentiment event.
Headline: Anthropic hosted an enterprise-focused event, referencing partners like Salesforce, DocuSign, and LegalZoom; software stocks rallied on the “play nice” angle.
Why it matters: The market is trying to differentiate “AI replaces software” vs “AI augments software”.
Market angle: This week’s software earnings become a high-stakes confirmation test.
Closing Market Read
We have a major catalyst today into the close: NVDA earnings — likely range-bound price action until the print, with rates sensitivity layered in via US auctions.
BTC: Hold vs break is simple: hold 65k–66k and we can rotate back into the 65k–72k range; break 65k/lose 66k repeatedly keeps the downside path open.
ETH: still reacting cleaner than BTC, but needs hold ~1,900 and ideally reclaim ~2,000 (EMA16 1,998) to reduce “sell-the-rip” pressure; lose ~1,900 and risk drifts back to range-low behavior.
USDT dominance: if we close below 8.16, mood improves; if it rejects and rises, risk stays defensive.
👋 Goodbye
Stay level-based today and keep size tight into the NVDA event. See you tomorrow morning from Therwil.