👋 Opening
Morning — big macro week kicking off with U.S. Durable Goods at 14:30 Zurich and U.S. 2Y auction at 19:00, while crypto trades with a clear risk-off undertone.
Shutdown headlines + tariff/shutdown chatter sit in the background, and positioning looks fragile with Extreme Fear still pinned.
Today is about whether markets stabilise inside ranges ahead of the Jan 27–28 FOMC and heavyweight earnings later this week.
Highlights
Today
🇺🇸 14:30 — Durable Goods (headline + core): major USD/rates catalyst.
🇺🇸 19:00 — U.S. 2Y note auction: front-end yield impulse risk.
🇩🇪 Bundesbank President Nagel speaks (multiple slots): EUR rates sensitivity.
🇪🇺 ICE EUA Futures (Jan26) — expiry / last trading day: potential localized vol.
🧾 Earnings on deck (no megacap tech today): STLD / BOH / NUE, plus Fanuc & Ryanair scheduled.
This Week
Wed 28: 🇺🇸 FOMC + 🚨 MSFT / META / TSLA earnings.
Thu 29: 🇺🇸 US GDP (advance) + 🚨 AAPL earnings + 🇺🇸 7Y auction.
Tue–Thu: 🇺🇸 2Y/5Y/7Y Treasury auctions (duration supply week).
Tue/Wed: 🛢️ Natural Gas options/futures expiries (roll/vol risk).
Crypto backdrop: spot BTC ETFs -$1.33B weekly outflows; ETH ETFs -$611M (week ended Jan 23).
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
Technical
Crypto
Global Indices
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 20 — Extreme Fear (2026-01-26)
Yesterday: 25 — Extreme Fear (2026-01-25)
7D average: 24.3
Δ vs yesterday: -5.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -4.3
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.85 — 2026-01-26
Yesterday: 2.52 — change vs yesterday: +0.33
7D average: 2.43
Fecha Ratio
2026-01-19 1.51
2026-01-20 2.01
2026-01-21 2.54
2026-01-22 2.32
2026-01-23 2.48
2026-01-24 2.30
2026-01-25 2.52
2026-01-26 2.85
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 3.58 — 2026-01-26
Yesterday: 3.00 — change vs yesterday: +0.58
7D average: 2.99
Fecha Ratio
2026-01-19 1.51
2026-01-20 2.08
2026-01-21 2.92
2026-01-22 2.81
2026-01-23 3.45
2026-01-24 3.08
2026-01-25 3.00
2026-01-26 3.58
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 16.09 | +2.88% | +1.58% | Moderate volatility; fairly normal regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 6.30% | N/D | N/D | Low-to-moderate USDT dominance; slight risk-on tilt / balanced liquidity. |
Global Crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excl. stables)
Basket average RSI: 39.0
On-chain — CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -0.87% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.11% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.99x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune): BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h volume: 9.98B USD · 30D daily avg: 10.07B USD · % vs 30D: -0.87%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko): Spot vol 24h (top CEX): 33.89B USD (10 exchanges) · Total mcap (CG): 3.05T USD · Spot turnover: 1.11%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko): OI total: 123.66B USD · Derivatives vol 24h: 369.71B USD (10 derivative exchanges) · Derivatives turnover: 2.99x · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 10.91x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures): BTC funding: 0.0041% per period · ETH funding: -0.0136% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): Current gas: 0.04 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion
Institutional
Top Movers
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): We lost some levels yesterday to go to the low part of the range; now we need to see the reaction today and how price respects the levels, and see if it’s able to recover yesterday’s losses.
We are on an important week with a lot of macro events and volatility is assured — I’ll be watching the OB that marks the bottom line of the range and the daily lows and highs to see if price stabilizes.
ETH: Similar move to BTC but it’s looking worse in the sense that it’s really close to the OB that makes the low of the range, which makes it more in danger to lose the level during the week.
USDT.D: On USDT we see the inverse part of the market; it’s leading to break the highs of the range and since it broke the lows it’s in a terrible speed — it just had a few rest days that finished yesterday with a powerful candle.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds the bottom-of-range OB and reclaims the prior day’s losses back into the range; ETH must defend its range-low OB and rotate higher. Confirmation: USDT.D must fail to hold above the range highs and reject back down to open a relief window.
Bear case: BTC loses the bottom-of-range OB and accepts in the low part of the range; ETH breaks its range-low OB first and accelerates the downside. Confirmation: USDT.D closes above its key range highs to add risk-off pressure.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 (Zurich time, CET / UTC+1)
⭐ Top catalysts (today)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Durable Goods Orders (Dec) (headline + core) — big USD/rates catalyst.
Core Durable Goods m/m: 0.3% vs 0.1% (forecast)
Durable Goods m/m: 3.1% vs -2.2% (forecast)
🇺🇸 Bond auctions (rate-vol catalyst)
17:30 — 13W T-bill auction (11:30 ET → 17:30 Zurich)
17:30 — 26W T-bill auction (11:30 ET → 17:30 Zurich)
19:00 — 2Y Treasury note auction (13:00 ET → 19:00 Zurich)
🗓️ Economic data & central bank speakers
🇩🇪 10:00 — German Ifo Business Climate: 88.3 vs 87.6 (forecast)
🇩🇪 12:00 / 14:30 / 18:00 — Bundesbank President Nagel speaks
🇧🇪 15:00 — Belgian NBB Business Climate: -10.2 vs -11.9 (forecast)
🧾 Major earnings (scheduled today) (Results/guidance/reaction pending.)
🇺🇸 Nucor (NUE) — scheduled (often after close)
🇺🇸 Steel Dynamics (STLD) — scheduled today
🇺🇸 Bank of Hawaii (BOH) — scheduled today
🇯🇵 Fanuc (FANUY) — scheduled today
🇮🇪 Ryanair (RYAAY) — scheduled today
Megacap check (NVDA/AAPL/MSFT/TSLA/AMZN): none reporting today; heavyweight tech later this week.
🧩 Futures & options expirations
No major “headline” expiration today (no monthly/quarterly index option expiry).
SPX/XSP weeklies generally available most business days (watch gamma effects into end-of-month).
For contract-specific futures/options expiries (CME): (CME Group)
🌍 Other market-moving notes
🇮🇳 India markets closed (Republic Day) — potential liquidity knock-on for INR-linked flows.
🇺🇸 Washington/trade headline risk (tariff rhetoric + shutdown chatter) remains a “background volatility” factor.
Key economic events today — Mon, 26 Jan 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
🔥 Highest-impact movers (today)
🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (Nov) — 08:30 ET → 14:30 Zurich: 3.1% (forecast -2.2%)
🇺🇸 Core Durable Goods Orders (Nov) — 08:30 ET → 14:30 Zurich: 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
🇩🇪 German Ifo Business Climate (Jan) — 10:00 Zurich: 88.3 (forecast 87.6)
🇺🇸 U.S. 2-Year Note Auction — 13:00 ET → 19:00 Zurich
📅 Economic data & central bank speakers (Zurich, CET) — Already released
🇧🇪 09:00 — Belgium NBB Business Climate (Jan): -10.2 (prev -11.9)
🇩🇪 10:00 — Germany Ifo Business Climate (Jan): 88.3 (forecast 87.6)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Core Durable Goods (Nov): 0.3% (forecast 0.2%)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Durable Goods (Nov): 3.1% (forecast -2.2%)
Speakers
🇩🇪 12:00 — Bundesbank President Nagel speaks
🇩🇪 14:30 — Bundesbank President Nagel speaks (2nd slot)
🏦 Bond auctions (Zurich, CET)
🇺🇸 19:00 — U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note Auction (13:00 ET → 19:00 Zurich)
Why it matters: tail / bid-to-cover + indirects can move front-end yields → USD rates & risk sentiment.
📈 Earnings (major / market-relevant)
No megacap tech earnings today (no AAPL/MSFT/TSLA/AMZN/NVDA reports scheduled for Monday in the “headline” tier).
🇺🇸 Steel Dynamics (STLD) — reports before U.S. open; earnings call 11:00 ET → 17:00 Zurich
🇺🇸 Bank of Hawaii (BOH) — reports before U.S. open; earnings call 13:00 ET → 19:00 Zurich
🧾 Futures & options expirations (today)
🇪🇺 ICE EUA Futures (Jan26 contract) — last trading day / expiry today (Jan 26, 2026)
📌 Macro “setup” that can move markets this week (context)
🇺🇸 FOMC meeting is Jan 27–28; decision 14:00 ET → 20:00 Zurich and press conference 14:30 ET → 20:30 Zurich on Wed, Jan 28.
🧠 Revision watchlist (things that often get revised)
🇺🇸 Durable Goods (headline & core): volatile series; market often fades first print unless confirmed by follow-through.
✅ Quick scan table (Zurich time, CET)
Time | Flag | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
09:00 | 🇧🇪 | NBB Business Climate (Jan) | 🟡 |
10:00 | 🇩🇪 | Ifo Business Climate (Jan) | 🔴 |
12:00 | 🇩🇪 | Nagel speaks | 🟠 |
14:30 | 🇺🇸 | Core Durable Goods (Nov) | 🔴 |
14:30 | 🇺🇸 | Durable Goods (Nov) | 🔴 |
19:00 | 🇺🇸 | 2-Year Note Auction | 🔴 |
14:30 | 🇩🇪 | Nagel speaks (2nd) | 🟠 |
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: China’s top general is accused of giving nuclear secrets to the U.S., with bribery allegations and a broader purge context.
Why it matters: escalates political and security risk around China’s military leadership and readiness, with potential cross-strait and U.S.–China negotiation implications.
Market angle: risk premium channel — geopolitics can tighten risk conditions quickly, especially into major U.S. macro events.
Headline: U.S. government shutdown fears weigh on crypto; shutdown probability referenced as elevated, contributing to broader risk-off mood.
Why it matters: shutdown risk can lift political-risk premium and hit risk assets via rates, USD, and sentiment.
Market angle: a macro risk-off impulse can override crypto-specific narratives; watch whether BTC holds key range supports as headline pressure persists.
Headline: India markets closed (Republic Day).
Why it matters: reduces regional liquidity and can create knock-on effects in INR-linked flows.
Market angle: thinner liquidity pockets can exaggerate moves if global risk sentiment shifts.
Headline: Washington/trade headline risk (tariff rhetoric + shutdown chatter) remains “background volatility.”
Why it matters: persistent headline risk keeps vol bid and reduces conviction positioning.
Market angle: treat it as a volatility tax — tighter sizing into event windows.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Fed decision week: market expects rates unchanged; focus is Powell tone (hawkish vs dovish pause) and Q&A topics (tariffs, affordability measures, Fed independence).
Why it matters: forward guidance and press conference can reprice USD/rates and spill into crypto beta.
Market angle: if messaging supports a stronger USD floor, that’s a headwind for BTC; if it reads like a dovish pause, relief can be sharp but still needs confirmation via risk filters.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Market angle: keep an eye on equity risk tone as a lead indicator for crypto beta.
Headline: ICE EUA Futures (Jan26) expire / last trading day today.
Why it matters: expiries can create localized volatility and flow-driven distortions.
Market angle: watch for cross-market risk ripples if volatility spills into broader risk sentiment.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Spot bitcoin ETFs posted their worst week since Feb 2025: $1.33B outflows (week ended Jan 23); ETH ETFs $611M outflows; SOL ETFs saw $9.6M inflows; XRP ETFs $40.6M.
Why it matters: institutional flow regimes often lead price behavior at the margin.
Market angle: flow stabilization becomes a key signal for whether dips get bought or fade continues.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Ethereum Foundation formed a post-quantum security team (lead: Thomas Coratger) and launched a $1M Poseidon Prize (plus a separate $1M Proximity Prize referenced); post-quantum devnets running across clients.
Why it matters: positions Ethereum’s roadmap around quantum-resilience as a strategic priority.
Market angle: not an immediate price catalyst versus macro, but strengthens long-term credibility narratives during risk-off phases.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Bitcoin slid near $87,000 as shutdown fears weighed on crypto; described as macro-driven risk-off rather than crypto-specific.
Why it matters: reinforces that near-term direction is being set by macro risk sentiment.
Market angle: the week’s playbook is “macro first” — BTC’s ability to hold its local support zone and avoid deeper range breakdown matters most.
Closing Market Read
Volatility is set: Durable Goods (14:30 Zurich) → 2Y auction (19:00) sets the tone into FOMC week, while shutdown/trade headlines keep risk premium elevated.
BTC is sitting in the low part of its range after losing levels yesterday — today is about whether it stabilizes and can recover those losses back inside the range, with the bottom-of-range OB as the line in the sand.
ETH looks more fragile, parked near the range-low OB, so it’s the first candidate to slip if risk-off pressure increases.
Outcome 1 (hold): BTC holds the bottom OB and reclaims back into the range; ETH defends the range-low OB and follows higher.
Outcome 2 (break): BTC loses the bottom OB and accepts lower; ETH breaks its range-low OB and accelerates downside — with USDT.D pushing above range highs as the confirming risk-off pressure.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full setup for Monday. Trade tight around 14:30 and 19:00 Zurich, and respect the range boundaries into the midweek event stack.