👋
Morning from Therwil.
Risk is still not “clean risk-on”: sentiment is extreme fear, yet positioning is leaning long again while macro hedges (gold) stayed bid.
Today is a data + rates day (PPI + Canada GDP + EU inflation signals), so expect volatility bursts around the prints.
Highlights
Today
US: Core PPI + PPI (14:30 Zurich) → rates/USD/risk can reprice fast.
Fed vs DOJ: Fed challenges subpoenas tied to Powell probe → independence narrative risk stays live.
Tech tape: Nvidia drops post-earnings, Nasdaq dragged; software names stabilize on “AI partnership” narrative.
This Week
Crypto flows: BTC ETFs +$506.5m net inflows, ETH ETFs +$157.1m (per doc) → institutional bid stabilizing.
Policy: Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act (2026) framed as dev-protection vs Section 1960 risk.
Software shakeout: Anthropic “Claude Cowork” showcase + integrations; Block cited AI productivity while announcing major layoffs.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Havens & Rates
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 13 – Extreme Fear (2026-02-27)
Yesterday: 11 – Extreme Fear (2026-02-26)
7D average: 9.3
Δ vs yesterday: +2.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +3.7
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.82 (2026-02-27)
Yesterday: 1.49 (Δ +0.33)
7D avg: 1.94
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-20 | 2.21 |
2026-02-21 | 2.01 |
2026-02-22 | 1.76 |
2026-02-23 | 1.93 |
2026-02-24 | 2.42 |
2026-02-25 | 2.13 |
2026-02-26 | 1.49 |
2026-02-27 | 1.82 |
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 1.81 (2026-02-27)
Yesterday: 1.42 (Δ +0.39)
7D avg: 2.22
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2026-02-20 | 2.95 |
2026-02-21 | 2.43 |
2026-02-22 | 2.12 |
2026-02-23 | 2.81 |
2026-02-24 | 2.70 |
2026-02-25 | 2.26 |
2026-02-26 | 1.42 |
2026-02-27 | 1.81 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 18.63 | +3.90% | -7.91% | Moderate vol; relatively normal regime. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.83% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: slightly defensive liquidity bias. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 57.6
🔗 On-chain
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -26.89% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.22% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivs turnover: 2.03x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h volume: 7.95B USD · 30D daily avg: 10.88B USD · % vs 30D: -26.89%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko): Spot vol 24h (top CEX): 29.69B USD (10 exchanges) · Total mcap: 2.43T USD · Turnover: 1.22%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko): OI total: 84.45B USD · Derivs vol 24h: 171.73B USD (10 exchanges) · Turnover: 2.03x · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 5.78x
Funding (Binance Futures): BTC funding: -0.0010% per period · ETH funding: 0.0014% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): Current gas: 0.08 GWEI (very low)
🔍 Market Lens
BTC: After yesterday being unable to hold above the midle range and retrace, today we had a push from the asian markets. Could this time being enoought to break and close above the middle?
ETH: Eth for his side was able to sustain above the middle range but unable to break the levels and its ranging. all for decide here either.
Usdt: Price respected the floor, and continue on this range that has been created, little to say as long as we respected the range, we are not in risk on.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
⭐ Highest impact (focus)
🇺🇸 14:30 — US Core PPI m/m + PPI m/m (Jan)
Core PPI m/m: 0.3% actual vs 0.7% prior
PPI m/m: 0.3% actual vs 0.5% prior
🇨🇦 14:30 — Canada GDP m/m
🇩🇪 All day — Germany Prelim CPI (m/m)
🇯🇵 00:30 — Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Full macro calendar (by time)
Asia
🇯🇵 00:30 — Tokyo Core CPI y/y (1.8% vs 1.7% exp, 2.0% prev)
🇯🇵 00:50 — Industrial Production (prelim) m/m (2.2% vs 5.5% exp, -0.1% prev)
🇯🇵 00:50 — Retail Sales y/y (1.8% vs 0.1% exp, -0.9% prev)
🇦🇺 01:30 — Private Sector Credit m/m (0.5% vs 0.7% exp, 0.8% prev)
🇯🇵 06:00 — Housing Starts y/y (-1.9% vs -1.3% exp)
Europe
🇩🇪 08:00 — German Import Prices m/m (0.6% vs -0.1% exp)
🇫🇷 08:45 — French Consumer Spending m/m (0.4% vs -0.6% exp)
🇫🇷 08:45 — French Prelim CPI m/m (0.5% vs -0.3% exp)
🇫🇷 08:45 — French Prelim GDP q/q (0.2% vs 0.2% exp)
🇨🇭 09:00 — Switzerland GDP q/q (0.2% vs -0.5% prev)
🇨🇭 09:00 — KOF Economic Barometer (103.0 vs 102.5 exp)
🇪🇸 09:00 — Spain Flash CPI y/y (2.2% vs 2.3% exp)
🇩🇪 09:55 — German Unemployment Change (2K vs 0K exp)
Americas
🇺🇸 14:30 — Core PPI m/m (0.3%)
🇺🇸 14:30 — PPI m/m (0.3%)
🇨🇦 14:30 — GDP m/m (0.1% vs 0.0% exp)
🇺🇸 15:45 — Chicago PMI (52.0 vs 54.0 exp)
🇺🇸 16:00 — Construction Spending m/m (0.2%)
(Also listed: Nov construction spending 0.5%)
Central bank / speeches
🇬🇧 14:00 — BoE MPC Member Pill speaks
China
🇨🇳 (Tentative) Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y (-9.5%)
Bond auctions (important today)
🇺🇸 US Treasury: 2-Year FRN auction (settles today)
Futures / options expiries (key flags)
Crypto futures expiries today (per Investing.com expiration calendar): Bitcoin Futures and Ether Futures show Feb 27, 2026 as an expiry-related date in the calendar view.
Earnings (market-moving context)
No megacap earnings are clearly scheduled today from the sources accessible without JS tables.
Recent big prints this week (radar for index flow): NVDA (reported Feb 25) and DELL (reported Feb 26).
📌 Revision watchlist (what can get revised / re-framed)
🇺🇸 PPI/Core PPI can shift rate-path pricing quickly—watch reaction vs consensus narrative (yields + USD + SPX).
🇫🇷 Prelim GDP/CPI are preliminary by design—higher revision risk than “final” prints.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Fed mounts a sealed legal fight to quash subpoenas tied to a criminal investigation into Powell’s renovation testimony, with political pressure implications.
Why it matters: Central-bank independence risk can spill into rates volatility and risk premia; also intersects with the Warsh confirmation standoff (per doc).
Market angle: Watch front-end yields and USD sensitivity into today’s inflation/rates prints; headline risk can amplify post-data moves.
Headline: Bipartisan “Promoting Innovation in Blockchain Development Act of 2026” aims to protect open-source devs from being swept into Section 1960 exposure.
Why it matters: Regulatory clarity for builders is framed as competitiveness infrastructure and reduces “builder risk” narrative drag.
Market angle: If momentum continues, “US is open for building” can support majors + infra narratives on risk-on days; still headline-driven until concrete outcomes.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Today’s macro slate is led by US PPI/Core PPI and Canada GDP, plus Germany prelim CPI signal and Japan inflation proxy.
Why it matters: Rates repricing is the transmission mechanism into equities/crypto; CPI proxies can reset expectations quickly.
Market angle: Trade the time windows (14:30 / 15:45 / 16:00 Zurich) as volatility nodes; fade or follow only after first reaction stabilizes.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Nvidia stock fell after earnings, weighing on Nasdaq; the bar for AI-linked names remains high.
Why it matters: AI bellwether volatility impacts index flows and risk sentiment broadly.
Market angle: If tech beta weakens, crypto may struggle to “break range” unless flows (ETFs) offset.
Headline: Block surged after announcing plans to lay off 40% of staff, framed as “smaller teams + AI tools can do more.”
Why it matters: Markets are rewarding margin/efficiency narratives; employment cuts also feed macro sensitivity around inflation/jobs.
Market angle: Risk assets can react positively to “AI productivity” even while growth anxiety persists—choppy regime, not a clean trend tape.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: BTC spot ETFs posted $506.5m net inflows (largest in three weeks in the doc), led by BlackRock IBIT; ETH ETFs also positive; XRP/SOL ETFs positive in the same data note.
Why it matters: Institutional flows can stabilize price action even when broader sentiment is fearful.
Market angle: Flows support “buy dips / absorb supply” behavior—watch if BTC can reclaim/hold its key intraday range marker per your lens.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Anthropic showcased Claude Cowork updates and highlighted integrations/partnerships (Salesforce + Google apps + others), easing “AI kills software” panic in the doc narrative.
Why it matters: Re-pricing from “disruption risk” to “AI enablement” can rotate capital back into software and stabilize broader risk.
Market angle: If IGV/large-cap software stabilizes, it can reduce cross-asset volatility—good backdrop for range breaks only if rates don’t shock.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: BTC/ETH/SOL prices were up on the day in the technical snapshot, while the commentary describes short-term bearish structure inside a broader bearish trend context, with positive MACD histogram (per doc).
Why it matters: Mixed regime = rallies can be sold unless key “hold” levels are reclaimed consistently.
Market angle: Keep it simple: trade the range until price proves otherwise (close/hold above your “middle range” marker).
Closing Market Read
BTC is trying to turn the Asian push into a range reclaim, but yesterday’s failure above the “middle range” keeps this as a decision point.
Hold scenario: BTC holds above its near-term reference levels (price vs short EMAs) and keeps pressing the range; ETH sustains above its middle range and stays bid while funding stays near-neutral.
Break scenario: BTC loses the reclaimed area and retraces back into the range; ETH fails to break its range levels and fades back into chop.
Catalysts are tight: 14:30 Zurich (US PPI + Canada GDP) is the main volatility trigger, with follow-through risk into Chicago PMI / Construction Spending.
Net: don’t front-run—let the data decide, then trade the hold vs break.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full tape from today’s doc. Stay mechanical around the data windows and only get aggressive once the range resolves.