Daily Macro — Mon, 29 Dec 2025
Good morning Anon. Thin holiday liquidity means flows can overpower fundamentals, so keep it simple: respect the levels, use USDT.D ~6.13% as the risk filter, and expect sharper reactions around US housing, EIA energy prints, and T-bill auctions.
✅ Today’s 60-second takeaway
Macro tone: safe-haven bid stays strong (gold up on the week), yields stuck in a moderate range, and oil vs metals remains a big relative-value signal (silver > oil).
Crypto tone: BTC/ETH popped, but the doc’s read is “thin-liquidity push + fading volume” → high chance of intraday long cleanups if Europe/US doesn’t confirm.
Risk filter: USDT.D ~6.13% is the key “channel/trend” line to watch today.
Catalysts: US housing + EIA energy data + T-bill auctions can move markets more than usual in holiday-thinned liquidity.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer (translated to English — scores removed, all data kept)
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates (Updated: 2025-12-29 05:28)
Asset | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | GC=F | 4537.80 | +0.19% | +5.42% | Strong safe-haven demand (sharp rise in gold). |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | ^TNX | 4.14% | +0.00% | -1.10% | Yields in a moderate range, no extreme signal. |
📉 Technical
Crypto
BTC — Bitcoin
Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
90034.5600 | +2.37% | +1.60% | 52.9 | 88409.9365 | 88641.5919 | 92207.7780 | 101271.7419 | 393.0029 |
Comment (from doc): short-term clearly bearish inside a broader bearish trend (price < EMA200; short EMAs below long EMAs). RSI neutral (52.9). MACD hist positive → bullish momentum.
ETH — Ethereum
Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3044.0900 | +3.16% | +1.15% | 51.9 | 2982.9711 | 2992.9580 | 3136.2610 | 3337.3775 | 10.3663 |
Comment (from doc): short-term clearly bearish inside a broader bearish trend (price < EMA200; short EMAs below long EMAs). RSI neutral (51.9). MACD hist positive → bullish momentum.
SOL — Solana
Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
128.7300 | +2.76% | +2.22% | 49.1 | 126.3017 | 127.2560 | 138.3259 | 162.7747 | 0.9147 |
Comment (from doc): short-term clearly bearish inside a broader bearish trend (price < EMA200; short EMAs below long EMAs). RSI neutral (49.1). MACD hist positive → bullish momentum.
Global indices (yfinance) — Updated: 2025-12-29 05:28
Index | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY – S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 690.31 | -0.01% | +1.55% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
QQQ – Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 623.89 | -0.01% | +1.80% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Dow Jones – Industrial Average | ^DJI | 48710.97 | -0.04% | +0.52% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Russell 2000 – Small Caps USA | ^RUT | 2534.35 | -0.54% | -0.67% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
DAX – Germany | ^GDAXI | 24340.06 | +0.23% | +0.87% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Nikkei 225 – Japan | ^N225 | 50654.61 | -0.19% | +2.57% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
FTSE 100 – UK | ^FTSE | 9870.70 | -0.19% | +1.73% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Hang Seng – Hong Kong | ^HSI | 25887.33 | +0.26% | -0.34% | Contained move; relatively stable index backdrop. |
Taiwan Weighted – Taiwan | ^TWII | 28823.20 | +0.94% | +3.43% | Moderate directional bias, no extreme signal. |
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 24 — Extreme Fear (2025-12-29)
Yesterday: 24 — Extreme Fear (2025-12-28)
7D average: 23.1
Δ vs yesterday: +0.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: +0.9
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT
Today: 2.25 (2025-12-29)
Yesterday: 2.40 (change: -0.14)
7D average: 2.25
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2025-12-22 | 1.71 |
2025-12-23 | 1.90 |
2025-12-24 | 2.26 |
2025-12-25 | 2.28 |
2025-12-26 | 2.13 |
2025-12-27 | 2.56 |
2025-12-28 | 2.40 |
2025-12-29 | 2.25 |
ETHUSDT
Today: 2.25 (2025-12-29)
Yesterday: 2.45 (change: -0.20)
7D average: 2.28
Date | Ratio |
|---|---|
2025-12-22 | 1.51 |
2025-12-23 | 1.93 |
2025-12-24 | 2.13 |
2025-12-25 | 2.10 |
2025-12-26 | 2.39 |
2025-12-27 | 2.71 |
2025-12-28 | 2.45 |
2025-12-29 | 2.25 |
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 vol) | 13.60 | +0.97% | -19.38% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 6.13% | N/D | N/D | Low–moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on bias / balanced liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 ex-stables)
Basket average RSI: 49.1
🔗 On-chain (flows + derivatives)
On-chain, CEX & Derivatives flows (data preserved; scores removed)
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -28.80% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 0.66% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.57x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral. |
Numeric detail (as in doc)
CEX Netflows (Dune): BTC -34.49M USD · ETH -64.59K USD · Total -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama): 24h 7.31B USD · 30D avg 10.26B USD · -28.80%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko): 24h spot 20.69B USD (top 10) · total mcap 3.13T · turnover 0.66%
Derivatives (CoinGecko): OI 130.50B · 24h deriv vol 204.54B (top 10) · turnover 1.57x · Deriv/Spot 9.88x
Funding (Binance): BTC 0.0100% / period · ETH 0.0092% / period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2): 0.06 GWEI (very low activity/congestion)
📊 Top Movers (CMC Top 100) — 2025-12-29 05:29
Winners (24h)
CC +14.63%, 2Z +5.77%, LDO +5.30%, TON +5.03%, ZEC +4.59%, WLFI +4.26%, IP +4.20%, NIGHT +4.09%, SOL +3.64%, LINK +3.59%.
Losers (24h)
PIPPIN -9.33%, STRK -0.99%, HYPE -0.91%, PAXG -0.86%, QNT -0.85%, XAUt -0.67%, VET -0.47%, LEO -0.41%, SEI -0.16%, USDe -0.04%.
🌍 Macro & Politics (market-moving narratives inside the doc)
Dollar/Yuan narrative: “Trump wants a weaker dollar” + Chinese advisers echo it
What happened: The piece argues a weaker USD vs CNY is a 2026 wildcard; mentions claims the yuan could be 20–30% undervalued (method-dependent), and highlights China’s large trade surplus + managed FX regime as the backdrop.
Why it matters: FX regime expectations can reshape trade, rates, and risk premia (and become a macro-vol driver).
Market angle: This is a “slow-burn” theme—watch for policy/labeling escalation and any concrete steps that force repricing.
Silver > Oil: extreme relative-value signal
What happened: Silver traded above the value of a barrel of oil, driven by strong investor + industrial demand while crude remained pressured by oversupply dynamics.
Why it matters: It’s a loud cross-asset message: precious-metal bid + energy glut is not “pure risk-on.”
Market angle: Supports the idea that hedging demand persists even if indices grind.
Ukraine war talks: optimism headlines without a breakthrough
What happened: Trump reported progress after calls/meetings with Putin and Zelensky; plan details remain unresolved and major hurdles persist.
Why it matters: Geopolitical negotiations can swing commodities, FX, and risk sentiment abruptly in thin liquidity.
Market angle: Treat as headline risk, not trend signal—especially into year-end.
🤖 Tech & AI / 🪙 Crypto (market-moving narratives inside the doc)
Ethereum roadmap accelerates: “Hegota” upgrade targeted for late 2026
What happened: Devs scheduled a second major 2026 upgrade (“Hegota”) after “Glamsterdam,” reflecting a faster cadence; early discussions include items like Verkle Trees (mentioned as a likely feature area).
Why it matters: Roadmap cadence + scaling/decentralization improvements shape long-term ETH narrative and builder confidence.
Market angle: Not an intraday catalyst, but it strengthens the “shipping faster” narrative into 2026.
🔍 Market Lens
USDT.D: The support zone that held the last days broke, and dominance is dropping toward the trend line. 6.13% is the key channel/trend area—while we remain in this range, there’s “nothing to see” on upside risk.
BTC: Broke above the bear trendline that started in October, but volume is fading and the push came from Asia. Watch how Europe reacts; a long clean during the day is on the table.
ETH: Similar to BTC — broke up and is testing the last high. Needs to close above support and then break the last high to print a new one, but volume is also very low.
🗓️ Key Economic Events — Today (Mon, 29 Dec 2025, Zurich/CET)
⭐ Top catalysts
🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales (Nov) — housing momentum into year-end
🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Inventories + EIA Natural Gas Storage — energy vol risk (thin liquidity)
🇺🇸 US Treasury bill auctions (13W + 26W) — curve micro-move catalyst
Timeline (CET)
00:50 🇯🇵 BoJ Summary of Opinions
16:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales m/m (Forecast 1.0% | Prev 1.9% | Actual pending)
16:30 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Forecast -2.0M | Prev -1.3M | Actual pending)
18:00 🇺🇸 EIA Natural Gas Storage (Forecast -169B | Prev -167B | Actual pending)
Bond auctions (today)
🇺🇸 13-Week T-Bill auction — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 (settles Fri, 02 Jan 2026)
🇺🇸 26-Week T-Bill auction — Mon, 29 Dec 2025 (settles Fri, 02 Jan 2026)
Earnings / Expiries
No megacap earnings today (holiday week).
No major index futures/options “headline” expiry today.
Revision watchlist
🇺🇸 EIA energy data can be revised — be careful anchoring to the first print in thin liquidity.
Closing Market Read
Today is holiday-thin liquidity, so don’t overthink the move: flows can push price fast and then fade just as fast.
USDT.D ~6.13% is the risk switch — staying below keeps the relief window alive; reclaiming/holding above brings risk-off pressure back.
If BTC holds above the short-term EMAs (~88.4k–88.6k) and starts accepting higher, the push has a chance to extend toward the next magnet around ~92.2k (EMA50).
If BTC loses ~88.4k–88.6k, expect a long cleanup (especially if Europe/US doesn’t confirm the Asia move).
ETH is the same playbook: hold/reclaim ~2,983–2,993 (EMA16/20) to keep the bounce constructive toward ~3,136 (EMA50).
Lose ~2,983–2,993 and it’s likely a fade/flush back into the range.
Have a good one — trade smaller, let the levels do the talking.