👋 Opening
Good morning from Basel. Risk is still fragile in crypto, even as global equities look relatively stable.
BTC/ETH are deeply oversold on the week, sentiment is stuck in Extreme Fear, and positioning remains long-heavy — the kind of mix that can produce sharp intraday squeezes in either direction.
Highlights
Today
RBA hiked +25bp to 3.85% — AUD rates and risk tone in focus.
Crypto sentiment: Fear & Greed 17 (Extreme Fear); BTC/ETH RSI in the high-20s (oversold).
U.S. data timing risk: JOLTS (Dec) is “tentative” amid shutdown-related delays.
Big earnings tape: PayPal / Merck (pre U.S. open), AMD / CMG / TTWO / EA (after close).
On-chain: BTC+ETH net outflows -34.56M USD, while DEX volume is running +32.53% vs 30D avg.
This Week
In focus (geopolitical): U.S. and Iran officials scheduled to meet in Turkey (Istanbul) this week.
Megacap earnings: Alphabet Wed 04 Feb (after close); Amazon Thu 05 Feb, call 23:00 Zurich.
Energy volatility marker: API weekly crude stocks at 22:30 Zurich today.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
📉 Technical — Crypto
/
📉 Technical — Global Indices
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 17 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-03)
Yesterday: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-02)
7D average: 19.4
Δ vs yesterday: +3.0 | Δ vs 7D average: -2.4
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.30 — 2026-02-03
Yesterday: 2.57 — change vs yesterday: -0.27
7D average: 2.51
Fecha | Ratio
2026-01-27 | 2.39
2026-01-28 | 2.11
2026-01-29 | 2.04
2026-01-30 | 3.28
2026-01-31 | 2.52
2026-02-01 | 2.74
2026-02-02 | 2.57
2026-02-03 | 2.30
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.58 — 2026-02-03
Yesterday: 2.70 — change vs yesterday: -0.13
7D average: 2.68
Fecha | Ratio
2026-01-27 | 2.40
2026-01-28 | 2.01
2026-01-29 | 2.08
2026-01-30 | 3.28
2026-01-31 | 3.36
2026-02-01 | 2.77
2026-02-02 | 2.70
2026-02-03 | 2.58
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 16.34 | -6.31% | +1.18% | Moderate volatility, relatively normal environment. |
USDT dominance (CMC) | 7.03% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: somewhat defensive market, partial tilt to liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by mcap, excluding stables)
Basket average RSI: 23.2
Quick read: Very low average RSI — deeply washed/oversold conditions.
🔗 On-chain — CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | +32.53% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.82% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.50x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune)
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama)
Total 24h volume: 15.12B USD · 30D daily average: 11.41B USD · % vs 30D: +32.53%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko)
Spot 24h volume (top CEX): 49.45B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 2.72T USD · Spot turnover: 1.82%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko)
Total OI: 97.98B USD · 24h derivatives volume: 245.06B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 2.50x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 4.96x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures)
BTC funding: -0.0022% per period · ETH funding: -0.0155% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2)
Current gas: 0.10 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): Liquidity swept on the lows but fail to break the high, I think today we will likely see breaking the highs, and try to reach the 80,500 of the old low.
ETH: eth its either swept the liqudity on the lows but could reach the highs and its on the middle way, I think we will see the swept on the highs as for BTC.
USDT.D: we almost close the FVG and now we start to se a consolidation on the price, we could se a little range here before deciding where to move next.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: BTC holds above 78,474.99 and starts reclaiming the downside EMA stack (first EMA16 84,712.56, then EMA20 85,647.74) while ETH stabilizes above 2,326.61 and pushes toward EMA16 2,727.57. Confirmation filter: USDT.D must stay below / fail at 7.03% to keep the relief window alive.
Bear case: BTC loses 78,474.99 and fails any reclaim attempts toward 84,712–85,648, while ETH breaks below 2,326.61 and remains rejected below 2,727–2,783. Confirmation filter: USDT.D must close above 7.03% to add risk-off pressure and keep bounces sellable.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Tue, 03 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
🚨 Highest-impact drivers
04:30 🇦🇺 RBA cash rate decision (already released) → Hike +25bp to 3.85%. (Reserve Bank of Australia)
08:45 🇪🇺 France CPI (Prelim, Jan) (Forex Factory)
⏳ 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) (time TBD; released later in the US session) (Forex Factory)
Earnings: PayPal (pre-market), Merck (morning), Advanced Micro Devices (after close) (PayPal)
Context risk note: ForexFactory is flagging that a U.S. government shutdown is impacting the flow/timing of high-impact releases. (Forex Factory)
🗓️ Macro data & central banks (by Zurich time)
🇦🇺 Australia
04:30 RBA policy decision — Actual: 3.85% (from 3.60%) (Reserve Bank of Australia)
05:30 RBA Governor presser (scheduled) (local media timing referenced; watch AUD rates & front-end) (The Guardian)
🇪🇺 Eurozone / Europe
08:45 France CPI (Prelim, Jan) (Forex Factory)
09:00 Spain Unemployment Change (Jan) (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 UK
⏳ 10Y gilt auction (time TBD / “tentative”) (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 United States
All day: Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Jan) (Forex Factory)
⏳ JOLTS Job Openings (Dec) (tentative) (Forex Factory)
⏳ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (Feb) (tentative) (Forex Factory)
🎙️ Central bank speakers (Zurich time)
14:00 🇺🇸 Thomas Barkin speaks (Forex Factory)
15:40 🇺🇸 Michelle Bowman speaks (Forex Factory)
17:00 🇦🇺 RBA Asst Gov (Jones) speaks (Forex Factory)
🧾 Bond auctions (key for rates)
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury Bills
T-bill auctions today (multiple tenors incl. 4W/8W/17W noted on Treasury schedules). (Datos Fiscales)
(If you want, I can format this block with each tenor + auction time once the day’s official announcements are posted.)
📣 Earnings — biggest market movers (with timing in Zurich)
Before U.S. cash open
14:00 — PayPal Q4 2025 earnings call (08:00 ET) (PayPal)
Actual / guidance / reaction: TBD (releases today).
15:00 — Merck Q4 2025 earnings call (09:00 ET) (Merck.com)
Actual / guidance / reaction: TBD (releases today).
After U.S. close
~22:00+ — Advanced Micro Devices Q4 + FY2025 results (after close), call at 23:00 Zurich (17:00 ET) (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.)
Actual / guidance / reaction: TBD (releases tonight).
~22:00+ — Chipotle Mexican Grill results ~22:10** Zurich (16:10 ET); call 22:30 Zurich (16:30 ET)** (Chipotle InvestorRoom)
Actual / guidance / reaction: TBD.
~22:00+ — Take-Two Interactive Software results after close; call 22:30 Zurich (16:30 ET) (Take-Two Interactive)
Actual / guidance / reaction: TBD.
~22:00+ — Electronic Arts results after close (no call) (Electronic Arts)
Actual / guidance / reaction: TBD.
🔜 Megacap heads-up (next 48h)
Alphabet reports Wed 04 Feb (after close). (abc.xyz)
Amazon.com reports Thu 05 Feb, call 23:00 Zurich (17:00 ET). (ir.aboutamazon.com)
🛢️ Energy
22:30 🇺🇸 American Petroleum Institute weekly crude stock report (Forex Factory)
🧨 Market-moving headlines to track today
Commodities volatility / risk tone: Reuters notes a broad commodities selloff tied to shifting geopolitics and rate expectations, including U.S.–Iran tension easing and the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve (per the report). (Reuters)
OPEC+ output stance mentioned as part of the oil pressure backdrop. (interactivebrokers.com)
✅ Overnight “still matters today” earnings recap (fresh catalysts)
Apple (reported late last week): revenue $143.8B (+16% YoY), EPS $2.84 (+19% YoY); stock popped into Monday’s session. (Apple)
The Walt Disney Company: EPS $1.63 (beat), revenue ~$26B; shares fell ~5–7% on concerns around parks/international visitation despite streaming strength; outlook reiterated. (Reuters)
📌 Revision watchlist (things that often get “re-written” later)
🇺🇸 JOLTS: frequently revised; watch the prior month revision as much as the headline.
🇪🇺 France prelim CPI: markets often trade the prelim hard; keep an eye on the final confirmation.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Turkey this week amid efforts to avoid a broader regional clash.
Why it matters: The talks span nuclear issues and potentially missiles/region-wide security — headline risk can swing energy, rates, and risk assets fast.
Market angle: Any perceived “de-escalation” impulse can support risk-on squeezes, but negotiation failure headlines can reprice oil/risk premium quickly.
Headline: Iran live-fire drill plans in the Strait of Hormuz reportedly failed to materialize after a U.S. warning.
Why it matters: Hormuz remains the ultimate energy chokepoint headline trigger.
Market angle: Reduced immediate escalation risk can pressure crude risk premium, but the tail risk doesn’t disappear.
Headline: Trump plans to lower tariffs on Indian goods to 18% after India agreed to stop buying Russian oil.
Why it matters: Trade policy + energy alignment can shift inflation expectations, supply chains, and geopolitics at once.
Market angle: Risk assets can like de-escalation, but commodities can react violently as flows re-price.
Headline: Russia sends proposals to the U.S. to improve relations .
Why it matters: Any thaw narrative can influence macro risk tone and commodities.
Market angle: Treat as headline volatility fuel — watch follow-through in official channels and rates/energy response.
Headline: Social post claims Iran told the U.S. it’s ready to suspend its nuclear program while continuing missile development (attributed to NYT).
Why it matters: That exact split is a known sticking point — it can define whether talks are “real progress” or just optics.
Market angle: Intraday risk-on/risk-off whipsaws are likely if this starts being echoed by major outlets.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: RBA hiked +25bp to 3.85%; Governor presser scheduled.
Why it matters: Australia sets an early-week global rates tone; FX and front-end rates can spill into broader risk.
Market angle: Watch whether higher rates reinforce “risk-off pressure” or if the market treats it as a one-off and stabilizes.
Headline: France CPI (prelim) and Spain unemployment print today (Zurich time).
Why it matters: Euro inflation data can move EUR rates and risk appetite.
Market angle: Any inflation surprise can shift duration and tech beta sensitivity.
Headline: U.S. data flow risk: shutdown is impacting timing; JOLTS and other releases listed as “tentative.”
Why it matters: Data uncertainty increases volatility and makes positioning more fragile.
Market angle: Expect “thin-liquidity” reactions and faster reversals around delayed releases.
Headline: Fed speakers: Thomas Barkin (14:00) and Michelle Bowman (15:40) Zurich.
Why it matters: In a rates-sensitive tape, even small hawkish/dovish nuances can move front-end pricing.
Market angle: If yields break range behavior, crypto can amplify the move.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: U.S. equities started February higher; Dow +515; S&P 500 just below all-time high; yields up after factory activity expanded.
Why it matters: The divergence vs crypto weakness is notable — equities stable while crypto is washed.
Market angle: If equities hold up, crypto becomes more prone to short-term mean reversion bounces from oversold levels.
Headline: Oracle detailed a $50B funding plan tied to AI buildout; memory/storage names were among biggest gainers.
Why it matters: AI capex narratives are a major equity leadership driver.
Market angle: Strong AI tape can support Nasdaq beta even if crypto remains heavy, but also raises “rates sensitivity” risk.
Headline: Disney reported results but shares fell ~5–7% on parks/international visitation concerns (despite streaming strength).
Why it matters: Consumer + travel signals matter for broad growth narratives.
Market angle: Equity sector rotation can change risk appetite and volatility regime intraday.
Headline: Apple “still matters today” recap: revenue $143.8B (+16% YoY), EPS $2.84 (+19% YoY); stock popped into Monday.
Why it matters: Megacap strength supports index stability.
Market angle: Stable indices reduce the odds of a full risk-off cascade — helpful backdrop for crypto bounce attempts.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: White House meeting on Senate crypto market-structure bill: stablecoin yield/rewards language still unresolved; push for compromise by month-end.
Why it matters: Yield on stablecoins is a core friction point between banks and crypto — it influences product design and adoption.
Market angle: Policy uncertainty can keep multiples compressed on crypto equities until language clarity improves.
Headline: Ark Invest bought more shares of Circle, Bitmine, Bullish, plus smaller adds in Block and Coinbase amid continued declines.
Why it matters: “Buy-the-dip” flows can stabilize sentiment in crypto-linked equities.
Market angle: Watch if equity dip-buying precedes spot crypto stabilization (or if it’s early).
Headline: Strategy acquired another 855 BTC for ~$75M (avg ~$87,974), taking total holdings to 713,502 BTC; holdings briefly slipped underwater when BTC dipped below ~$76k.
Why it matters: Corporate treasury flows remain a structural bid — but drawdowns stress the narrative.
Market angle: If BTC regains traction, this can re-ignite “treasury premium” trades; if BTC stays below cost basis, pressure can build.
Headline: BitMine added 41,788 ETH, lifting holdings to 4.285M ETH and raising staked ETH to ~2.9M; cited annualized staking revenue ~$188M.
Why it matters: Concentrated ETH treasury + staking is a supply/flow story and a narrative catalyst.
Market angle: Big holders can support downside via accumulation, but also add reflexivity risk if forced to de-risk.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Fear & Greed is 17 (Extreme Fear); positioning long/short ratios remain elevated (BTC 2.30, ETH 2.58).
Why it matters: Fear + long-heavy positioning is a volatile combo.
Market angle: Fast squeezes are possible, but fragile liquidity also increases liquidation cascades if lows break
Closing Market Read
BTC and ETH are oversold (RSI ~29 and ~27) but still structurally bearish under the EMA stack, so expect fast two-way volatility.
If BTC holds 78,474 and ETH holds 2,326, a relief squeeze can extend toward BTC’s lower resistance band (84.7k–85.6k) and ETH’s first reclaim zone (2,727–2,783).
If BTC breaks 78,474 and ETH breaks 2,326, bounces are likely to fail and the tape stays liquidation-prone.
USDT dominance at 7.03% is the risk filter: staying below supports relief, closing above keeps pressure on.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the full setup for today. Keep it tight, trade your levels, and respect the headline tape.