👋
Good morning — last day of the year, and the tape still has teeth.
Macro is steady-to-cautious: gold bid, yields range-bound, and the Fed minutes read as “fine-tuning + patience.”
Crypto is stuck in the same range after yesterday’s push, while sentiment remains heavy (Extreme Fear) despite net CEX outflows.
Highlights
Today
Fed minutes signal resistance to near-term cuts → January hold risk rises.
Metals volatility snapped back (silver whipsaw) while equities stayed quiet near highs.
USDT dominance sits low-to-moderate while crypto fear stays extreme → fragile risk appetite.
Bitwise filed for 11 new crypto strategy ETFs (including HYPE, TAO, TRX, UNI, ZEC).
Prenetics dropped its bitcoin-buying plan after raising $48M (still holds 510 BTC).
Lighter launched LIT and detailed token allocations + buyback-linked economics.
This Week (3–6 bullets)
Fed policy path looks more divided; market is increasingly data-dependent into January.
China’s onshore yuan strengthened above 7 per USD (first time since May 2023).
Grayscale filed to convert its TAO trust into a spot ETF (ticker GTAO on NYSE Arca).
Top movers show dispersion: CC led winners; MORPHO/CRV led losers.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro
🌐 Macro – Safe Havens & Rates
(Updated: 2025-12-31 04:53)
Asset | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | GC=F | 4364.90 | +0.92% | +0.59% | Moderate safe-haven demand. |
US 10Y Treasury Yield | ^TNX | 4.13% | +0.34% | -0.51% | Yields in a moderate range; no extreme signal. |
Global indices (yfinance)
(Updated: 2025-12-31 04:53)
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 21 – Extreme Fear (2025-12-31)
Yesterday: 23 – Extreme Fear (2025-12-30)
7-day average: 22.6
Δ vs yesterday: -2.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -1.6
Positioning – Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
=== BTCUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D) ===
Today: 2.04 – 2025-12-31
Yesterday: 2.84 – change vs yesterday: -0.80
7-day average: 2.36
Date Ratio
2025-12-24 2.26
2025-12-25 2.28
2025-12-26 2.13
2025-12-27 2.56
2025-12-28 2.40
2025-12-29 2.25
2025-12-30 2.84
2025-12-31 2.04
=== ETHUSDT – Binance global long/short (1D) ===
Today: 1.98 – 2025-12-31
Yesterday: 2.81 – change vs yesterday: -0.83
7-day average: 2.38
Date Ratio
2025-12-24 2.13
2025-12-25 2.10
2025-12-26 2.39
2025-12-27 2.71
2025-12-28 2.45
2025-12-29 2.25
2025-12-30 2.81
2025-12-31 1.98
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 14.33 | +0.92% | +1.78% | Moderate volatility; fairly normal environment. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 6.27% | N/D | N/D | Low-to-moderate USDT dominance: slight risk-on bias, balanced liquidity/risk. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, ex-stables)
Basket average RSI: 45.7
🔗 On-chain
🔗 On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on bias. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | -3.22% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 0.91% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 1.51x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral. |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 10.11B USD · 30D daily avg: 10.44B USD · % vs 30D: -3.22%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
Spot 24h volume (top CEX): 27.85B USD (sum of 10 exchanges)
Total market cap (CG): 3.07T USD · Spot turnover: 0.91%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 115.22B USD · Derivatives 24h volume: 173.52B USD (sum of 10 derivatives exchanges)
Derivatives turnover: 1.51x (vol_24h / OI) · Deriv/Spot vol ratio: 6.23x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0029% per period · ETH funding: 0.0052% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.04 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
📊 Top Movers (CMC Top 100) – 2025-12-31
🏆 Top 10 Winners – 24h
# | Symbol | Name | Price (USD) | % 24h | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CC | Canton | 0.1483 | ⬆️ +18.56% | 5.46B |
2 | CHZ | Chiliz | 0.0404 | ⬆️ +8.74% | 412.07M |
3 | 2Z | DoubleZero | 0.1228 | ⬆️ +8.35% | 426.32M |
4 | H | Humanity Protocol | 0.1838 | ⬆️ +7.77% | 423.61M |
5 | M | MemeCore | 1.4990 | ⬆️ +6.06% | 1.88B |
6 | PUMP | Pump.fun | 0.0019 | ⬆️ +5.65% | 670.18M |
7 | IP | Story | 1.6018 | ⬆️ +5.55% | 545.47M |
8 | LEO | UNUS SED LEO | 9.1350 | ⬆️ +5.37% | 8.42B |
9 | LIT | Lighter | 2.7704 | ⬆️ +3.66% | 692.61M |
10 | TON | Toncoin | 1.6133 | ⬆️ +3.39% | 3.96B |
📉 Top 10 Losers – 24h
# | Symbol | Name | Price (USD) | % 24h | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | MORPHO | Morpho | 1.1165 | ⬇️ -4.24% | 419.06M |
2 | CRV | Curve DAO Token | 0.3713 | ⬇️ -4.06% | 537.32M |
3 | SKY | Sky | 0.0591 | ⬇️ -4.01% | 1.36B |
4 | MNT | Mantle | 0.9586 | ⬇️ -3.69% | 3.12B |
5 | PIPPIN | pippin | 0.4147 | ⬇️ -3.67% | 414.65M |
6 | FLR | Flare | 0.0108 | ⬇️ -3.30% | 869.24M |
7 | ALGO | Algorand | 0.1141 | ⬇️ -2.79% | 1.01B |
8 | ZEC | Zcash | 524.6846 | ⬇️ -2.63% | 8.64B |
9 | XLM | Stellar | 0.2088 | ⬇️ -2.57% | 6.76B |
10 | CRO | Cronos | 0.0918 | ⬇️ -2.49% | 3.54B |
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): Little to say — we had a push yesterday, and it would be bullish if we close again over yesterday’s close, but price is still in the middle of the same range. Key nearby pivot zone is the EMA16/EMA20 area (88,170–88,395); reclaim/hold there keeps the push alive, while rejection keeps it range-bound.
ETH: Same as BTC — still living inside the same range. The key pivot is the EMA16/EMA20 area (2,970.87–2,980.93); hold/reclaim keeps a rebound attempt intact, while failure keeps it heavy.
USDT.D: Still respecting support but getting close to the trend line — key risk filter is 6.27%; a close above the nearby trend line would add risk-off pressure, while rejection/failure keeps the relief window open.
🗓️ Key economic events today — Wed 31 Dec 2025 (Zurich CET / UTC+1)
🔥 Top priority (market-moving)
🇨🇳 02:30 — NBS Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.1 vs 49.2 exp (prev 49.2)
Read-through: back >50 = expansion signal; usually supportive for cyclicals/China proxies/industrial commodities.
🇨🇳 02:30 — NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.2 vs 49.6 exp (prev 49.5)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Initial Jobless Claims: 219K (prev 214K)
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Crude Oil Inventories: +0.5M vs +0.4M exp
🇺🇸 18:00 — EIA NatGas Storage: -51B vs -166B exp
Also worth noting
🇨🇳 02:45 — RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 vs 49.8 exp (prev 49.9)
🏦 Bond auctions (thin year-end liquidity)
🇺🇸 US Treasury Bills — auctions today
4-Week Bill — auction Wed 31 Dec (settles Tue 06 Jan)
8-Week Bill — auction Wed 31 Dec (settles Tue 06 Jan)
17-Week Bill — auction Wed 31 Dec (settles Tue 06 Jan)
Timing rule of thumb: bill competitive bidding closes 17:30 Zurich
Settlement (month-end funding flows)
🇺🇸 5-Year Note settlement today (Dec 31)
🇺🇸 7-Year Note settlement today (Dec 31)
🧾 Earnings
✅ No megacap earnings today (NVDA / AAPL / MSFT / TSLA / AMZN)
Smaller caps scheduled (watch liquidity/after-hours gaps):
🇺🇸 Immersion (IMMR) — EPS est 0.91
🇺🇸 RCI Hospitality (RICK) — EPS est 1.81
🇺🇸 Coffee Holding (JVA), Brookmount (BMXI), Fincanna (FNNZF), 1933 Industries (TGIFF), Digerati (DTGI), Loop Media (LPTVQ), etc.
🕯️ Liquidity & market structure (year-end)
🇯🇵 All day: Japan bank holiday (thin Asia liquidity)
🇩🇪 All day: Germany bank holiday (reduced Europe depth)
🇳🇿 All day: New Zealand bank holiday
🇦🇺 All day: Australia bank holiday
🇺🇸 US bond market closes early: 20:00 Zurich (stocks typically regular session)
🇺🇸 Markets closed tomorrow (Thu 01 Jan) for New Year’s Day
⏳ Futures & options expiries / contract settlement (highlights)
Selected contract settlements today (Dec 31):
🏦 CBOT 30-Day Fed Funds (FFc1)
🛢️ Heating Oil (HOc1)
⛽ RBOB Gasoline (RBc1)
⛏️ Iron Ore 62% (TIOc1), Ethanol (1ZEc1)
📉 Revision watchlist
🇺🇸 EIA Oil & NatGas weekly data can get small subsequent revisions. Treat the first print as tradable, but keep a “rev-risk” tag into next week.
Quick scan table (Zurich CET)
Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
02:30 | 🇨🇳 NBS Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.1 | 🔴 |
02:30 | 🇨🇳 NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.2 | 🔴 |
02:45 | 🇨🇳 RatingDog Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 | 🟠 |
14:30 | 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims: 219K | 🔴 |
16:30 | 🇺🇸 EIA Crude Oil Inventories: +0.5M | 🔴 |
18:00 | 🇺🇸 EIA NatGas Storage: -51B | 🟠 |
Tape to watch (headline risk into year-end)
🇭🇺 Moody’s downgraded Budapest to junk (credit risk angle; EM/EU sentiment spillover risk)
🛢️ Oil pressure into year-end as market focuses on oversupply and 2026 outlook
🇮🇷 Iran domestic unrest + currency stress as tail-risk for energy/risk sentiment
🗓️ Key Economic Events — rest of this week (Zurich time, CET)
Thu 01 Jan 2026
Top watch
🇺🇸 U.S. Treasury / markets: New Year’s Day holiday (no auctions)
🌍 Broad global market holiday / thin liquidity (expect erratic moves if any headlines hit)
Earnings (no megacaps)
🇺🇸 Park Aerospace (PKE) — reports (timing not always standardized on holidays)
🇺🇸 Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR) — reports
Fri 02 Jan 2026
Top watch (tentative U.S. release)
🇺🇸 Construction Spending (Nov) — 16:00 Zurich (tentative; releases may still be affected by post-shutdown scheduling)
🇬🇧 Nationwide House Prices (Dec) — 08:00 Zurich
Bond market plumbing (cash-flow relevant)
🇺🇸 T-bill settlements (cash moves) — Settlement date Fri 02 Jan (from prior bill auctions)
Earnings (no megacaps)
🇺🇸 Taylor Devices (TAYD) — reports
🇺🇸 Hurco (HURC) — reports
Quick sanity check
🇺🇸 NFP is not this week — Employment Situation (Dec 2025) on Fri 09 Jan.
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing is Mon 05 Jan — not Jan 2.
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Fed minutes suggest caution about further cuts early next year; some officials preferred holding rates steady “for some time,” highlighting divisions and a close-call December cut.
Why it matters: Rate expectations are drifting toward “higher for longer / slower easing,” making upcoming data (jobs) a larger volatility trigger.
Market angle: This is a direct risk filter for both equities and crypto — less certainty on cuts tends to cap rallies and punish weak risk positioning.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Fed sees room for rates to fall eventually if inflation declines, but persistent inflation and data distortions (shutdown impacts) complicate the picture.
Why it matters: The path of disinflation is the key lever for 2026 cuts — noisy data increases “wait and see.”
Market angle: This keeps front-end rates reactive; short-duration volatility can spill into crypto via liquidity expectations.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Silver snapped back hard after a major drop; CME raised margin requirements to curb metals volatility; stocks dipped modestly in a quiet session.
Why it matters: Cross-asset volatility pockets can show where leverage is fragile even when equities look calm.
Market angle: Metals whipsaws + stable equities = selective risk; don’t assume “quiet tape” means low liquidation risk in crypto.
Headline: China’s onshore yuan rose above 7 per USD for the first time since May 2023.
Why it matters: FX moves can signal shifts in policy tolerance and broader risk perception.
Market angle: Watch Asia risk mood; FX stability can help risk assets, but it’s not a standalone green light with Fed caution in play.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Bitwise filed applications for 11 new “strategy” crypto ETFs, each investing up to 60% directly in a token with the remainder via ETPs and potentially derivatives.
Why it matters: It broadens the menu of listed exposure beyond BTC/ETH, which can reshape flows and attention across majors and select alts.
Market angle: This is narrative fuel for specific tickers (AAVE/ENA/HYPE/TAO/TRX/UNI/ZEC, etc.), but price still needs to confirm through levels.
Headline: Grayscale filed to convert its Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF (NYSE Arca ticker: GTAO), shortly after TAO’s first halving event.
Why it matters: It’s the first attempt at a U.S. spot ETF giving direct TAO exposure, expanding institutional rails for AI-linked crypto.
Market angle: TAO narrative can stay strong, but broad risk tone (USDT.D + macro) remains the gatekeeper.
Headline: Prenetics Global quit its bitcoin buying strategy less than three months after raising $48M; it still reports 510 BTC and >$70M cash equivalents.
Why it matters: “BTC treasury strategy” is not sticky when price falls — corporate demand can be reflexive, not structural.
Market angle: This is a soft sentiment hit for “corporate bid” narratives; don’t overprice treasury headlines into directional conviction.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Bittensor is positioned as a decentralized, AI-focused network with application-specific subnets; participants earn TAO by contributing compute.
Why it matters: The AI/compute narrative remains a key route for new capital to justify allocations beyond “pure finance” crypto.
Market angle: AI tokens can trend hard, but they still trade like risk assets — treat them as beta unless macro liquidity improves.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Net CEX flows for BTC+ETH were negative (-34.56M USD), consistent with net outflows.
Why it matters: Outflows can support a “HODL / reduced sell pressure” read, but it’s not sufficient alone with weak sentiment.
Market angle: Combine this with levels: flows can help on holds/reclaims, but they won’t save a break below pivots.
Headline: Fear & Greed sits at 21 (Extreme Fear) and global RSI basket is 45.7.
Why it matters: Fear-heavy regimes often produce sharp squeezes — and sharp flushes — around the same levels.
Market angle: Expect whipsaw; treat the EMA pivots on BTC/ETH as the decision points, and let USDT.D confirm.
🧩 Tokens
LIT — Headline: Lighter launched LIT, outlined tokenomics (50% ecosystem; 26% team; 24% investors) and linked value accrual/buybacks to protocol revenues; LIT-USDC pair went live.
Why it matters: Token design + distribution schedule (lock/vesting) and buyback framing can shape early price discovery.
Market angle: Treat early listings as volatility events; don’t chase without a defined invalidation level and liquidity check.
TAO — Headline: Grayscale filed for a spot ETF conversion for its TAO trust (GTAO), shortly after TAO’s first halving.
Why it matters: Adds “ETF optionality” to the AI token narrative.
Market angle: If broad risk is pressured (USDT.D up), these narratives can still sell off with beta.
Closing Market Read
BTC is still mid-range after yesterday’s push: the whole day is about whether we hold/reclaim 88,170–88,395, or lose it and stay pinned under the EMAs.
ETH mirrors it: hold/reclaim 2,970–2,981 to keep a rebound attempt alive, or lose it and remain heavy below 3,119.
Macro is the volatility trigger: Fed minutes lean cautious into January, so data surprises can move rates and spill into risk.
USDT.D at 6.27% is the risk filter — close above adds risk-off pressure; rejection/failure keeps the relief window open.
👋 Goodbye
That’s it for today — keep it level-based, let USDT.D confirm, and don’t donate to the chop. Happy New Year.