👋
Morning — busy tape today with multiple macro catalysts landing into the US session: Euro area inflation (flash), ADP, ISM Services, and EIA crude inventories, plus a heavy earnings slate led by Alphabet.
At the same time, markets are digesting a sharp AI-driven tech/data selloff, elevated metals volatility, and a crypto market trying to stabilize after a violent washout.
Plan: trade the levels and respect the event windows.
Highlights
Today
🇪🇺 12:00 — Euro area HICP flash (Jan): key pre-ECB input for rates expectations.
🇺🇸 14:15 — ADP (Jan): labor pulse into the next jobs cycle.
🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Services (Jan): the US growth / inflation-sensitive print for risk.
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA crude inventories: higher oil sensitivity given Hormuz headlines.
🟦 Alphabet earnings: “Mag-7” print into a fragile tech tape after the AI tool shock.
🪙 Crypto stabilization attempt: downside momentum paused after US funding vote.
This Week (3–6 bullets)
🇺🇸 Treasury auction pipeline: announcements today for next week’s 3Y/10Y/30Y cycle (auctions 02/10–02/12, settlement 02/17).
🟦 Amazon tomorrow (Thu 2/5): potential hedging pressure into today’s close.
🇪🇺 ECB watch: HICP flash is the key “setup” input ahead of this week’s policy meeting.
🇺🇸 US funding risk rolling forward: further DHS funding negotiations over the next week and a half.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
📉 Technical
Crypto
Global indices
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index
Today: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-04)
Yesterday: 17 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-03)
7D average: 17.3
Δ vs yesterday: -3.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -3.3
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.85 — 2026-02-04
Yesterday: 2.30 — change vs yesterday: +0.55
7D average: 2.61
Date | Ratio
2026-01-28 | 2.11
2026-01-29 | 2.04
2026-01-30 | 3.28
2026-01-31 | 2.52
2026-02-01 | 2.74
2026-02-02 | 2.57
2026-02-03 | 2.30
2026-02-04 | 2.85
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.82 — 2026-02-04
Yesterday: 2.58 — change vs yesterday: +0.24
7D average: 2.80
Date | Ratio
2026-01-28 | 2.01
2026-01-29 | 2.08
2026-01-30 | 3.28
2026-01-31 | 3.36
2026-02-01 | 2.77
2026-02-02 | 2.70
2026-02-03 | 2.58
2026-02-04 | 2.82
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 18.00 | +10.16% | +10.09% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal backdrop. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.17% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: more defensive, partial bias toward liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Average basket RSI: 27.9
Quick read: RSI 27.9 → heavily washed / oversold conditions across the basket.
🔗 On-chain
On-chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on skew. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | +33.57% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 1.88% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.66x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 15.43B USD · 30D daily average: 11.55B USD · % vs 30D: +33.57%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
24h spot volume (top CEX, sum of 10): 50.27B USD
Total market cap (CG): 2.68T USD · Spot turnover: 1.88%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 102.33B USD · 24h derivatives volume (top 10): 271.85B USD
Derivatives turnover: 2.66x (vol_24h / OI) · Derivs/Spot vol ratio: 5.41x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0001% per period · ETH funding: -0.0025% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.11 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
📊 Top Movers
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): Swept PDL liquidity and broke the April lows to make a new one; so far PWL has been acting as support, and as long as we keep closing above it, the next path is toward PDH and potentially the FVG fill above the high.
ETH: Swept the lows and the old lows from June, then bounced hard; if the news flow respects, the path is to break the highs and push way over 2,400.
USDT.D: Making new highs in this formation and finally closed the FVG — still a bullish pattern, so a close above keeps risk-off pressure on, while rejection/failure is the cleanest relief window.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: If BTC holds PWL and reclaims momentum after today’s data, the move can extend toward PDH with the FVG fill above the high; ETH follows by holding its post-sweep bounce and breaking the highs to push through 2,400 — confirmed only if USDT.D fails/rejects and does not hold above its newly-closed FVG zone.
Bear case: If BTC loses PWL and accepts back below the post-sweep base, downside reopens after the liquidity sweep; ETH would fade the bounce and lose its reclaimed lows instead of taking out highs — confirmed if USDT.D closes higher and holds above its formation/FVG area, keeping risk-off pressure active.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
⭐ Highest-impact market movers
🇺🇸 14:15 — ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Jan): 46K vs 41K prior (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Services PMI (Jan): 53.5 vs 54.4 prior (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M vs -2.3M prior (Forex Factory)
🇪🇺 12:00 — Euro area HICP flash estimate (Jan) (Eurozone inflation “flash”) (European Central Bank)
Economic data & central bank-related (by release time)
Asia / Overnight
🇳🇿 01:00 — ANZ Commodity Prices m/m: 2.0% (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 02:45 — Services PMI (RatingDog): 52.3 (vs 52.0 forecast / 52.0 prior) (Forex Factory)
🇦🇺 06:10 — Reserve Bank of Australia: Assist Gov Brad Jones speaks (listed on calendars) (Forex Factory)
(RBA site time is 16:00 AEDT → 06:00 Zurich) (rba.gov.au)
Europe morning
🇪🇸 09:15 — Spain Services PMI: 56.6 (prior 57.1) (Forex Factory)
🇮🇹 09:45 — Italy Services PMI: 51.3 (prior 51.5) (Forex Factory)
🇫🇷 09:50 — France Final Services PMI: 47.9 (Forex Factory)
🇩🇪 09:55 — Germany Final Services PMI: 53.3 (Forex Factory)
🇪🇺 10:00 — Eurozone Final Services PMI: 51.9 (Forex Factory)
🇬🇧 10:30 — UK Final Services PMI: 54.2 (prior 54.3) (Forex Factory)
🇪🇺 12:00 — Euro area HICP flash estimate (Jan) (ECB/Eurostat watch item ahead of this week’s policy meeting) (European Central Bank)
US afternoon
🇺🇸 14:15 — ADP Employment (Jan): 46K (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 15:45 — US Final Services PMI: 52.5 (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:00 — ISM Services PMI (Jan): 53.5 (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 16:30 — EIA Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M (Forex Factory)
🇺🇸 Bonds & auctions (very relevant this week)
US Treasury auction pipeline: Announcements today (02/04) for next week’s 3Y Note, 10Y Note, 30Y Bond issuance cycle (with auctions dated 02/10–02/12, settlement 02/17). (treasurydirect.gov)
Note: The Treasury’s broader schedule is organized around the quarterly refunding cycle (first Wed of Feb/May/Aug/Nov). (treasurydirect.gov)
🧾 Earnings — biggest names reporting today
Megacap flag
🟦 Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — scheduled to report today (key “Mag-7” print). (TradingView)
Other major/global names on the tape today (selection)
🇺🇸 Eli Lilly (Kiplinger)
🇺🇸 Uber (Kiplinger)
🇺🇸 CME Group (Kiplinger)
🇨🇭 UBS (Kiplinger)
(Full “Wed 2/4” slate is earnings-heavy.) (Kiplinger)
Quick positioning note: Amazon is a key print tomorrow (Thu 2/5), so markets may start hedging into the close today. (Kiplinger)
🌍 Other market-moving context to keep on radar today
Geopolitics / energy risk: reports of renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz alongside stronger oil prices can amplify the impact of today’s EIA inventory print. (Reuters)
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: Reports of renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz alongside stronger oil prices.
Why it matters: Adds geopolitical premium to energy and can amplify the market reaction to the EIA print.
Market angle: Oil sensitivity rises into 16:30 — inventories can move crude harder than usual under geopolitics.
Headline: US House narrowly passed a funding package (217–214) to reopen the government, heading to the president’s desk for signature; DHS funding negotiations continue over the next week and a half.
Why it matters: Removes an immediate macro risk overhang, but keeps a rolling political risk window.
Market angle: Relief can stabilize risk temporarily, but watch for “risk-off” reflex if negotiations re-escalate.
Headline: Japan signs a 27-year deal to buy liquefied natural gas from Qatar.
Why it matters: Long-duration energy security signal that can matter for longer-term LNG flows and geopolitics.
Market angle: Supports the broader “energy is strategic” narrative into a week where oil headlines matter.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: Services PMI batch across Europe + UK final prints this morning.
Why it matters: Growth tone-check for the region.
Market angle: Helps set the European session bias before US data takes over.
Headline: RBA Assist Gov Brad Jones speaks (listed on calendars).
Why it matters: Messaging risk for rates/FX.
Market angle: Watch for spillover into risk sentiment in Asia hours.
Headline: ADP (Jan) 14:15 and ISM Services (Jan) 16:00 in the US.
Why it matters: Labor + services inflation/growth mix is the main risk trigger for US rates and equities today.
Market angle: These prints can decide whether the “oversold bounce” holds or fails.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Fear over new AI tools triggers tech selloff; Nasdaq -1.4%, S&P 500 -0.8%, Dow -0.3%.
Why it matters: Narrative shock can reprice software/data moats quickly.
Market angle: Risk is “sell the rip” behavior in tech unless earnings stabilizes sentiment.
Headline: Private-fund managers drop (Ares Management and Blue Owl Capital about -10%).
Why it matters: Highlights second-order exposure via software-heavy portfolios.
Market angle: Credit-equity feedback loops can matter if the narrative persists.
Headline: Earnings movers: Palantir jumped nearly 7% after strong results; PayPal slid 20% after warning earnings would fall this year; AMD due after close; Nvidia and Broadcom also weaker.
Why it matters: Micro is dominating tape-level moves.
Market angle: Alphabet today + Amazon tomorrow are key volatility anchors.
Headline: Global markets: Indian stocks advanced after New Delhi agreed to a trade deal with the US; Nikkei 225 hit a record closing high; Samsung surge lifted South Korea’s Kospi nearly 7%.
Why it matters: Risk appetite is uneven across regions.
Market angle: Keep an eye on “US tech vs rest-of-world” divergence.
Headline: Metals volatility continues: gold futures swung back near $5,000/oz (+6.1% day move); silver bounced 8.2%.
Why it matters: Large metal swings signal stress/positioning and can bleed into broader risk sentiment.
Market angle: Aligns with the thermometer showing strong gold (+9.80% 1D).
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Galaxy Digital posts a $482M Q4 loss; cash + stablecoin reserves rose to $2.6B (up 36% q/q) after equity raise and senior notes.
Why it matters: Highlights how quickly profitability can flip with price/volume conditions, while liquidity buffers matter.
Market angle: Watch “balance sheet strength vs trading volumes” as the cycle cools.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: New AI productivity tools (Anthropic) sparked a broad selloff across software and data/tooling names.
Why it matters: The market is repricing competitive moats and switching costs.
Market angle: Expect higher dispersion and faster narrative rotations — earnings reactions can be extreme.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: Crypto plunge paused after the US House passed the funding package; BTC had fallen as low as $72,800 before bouncing (still sharply down on the day in the report).
Why it matters: Macro headline relief can stop liquidation cascades, but doesn’t automatically reverse trend.
Market angle: Treat bounce attempts as conditional on today’s data + the USDT.D risk filter.
Closing Market Read
BTC swept the PDL liquidity and broke the April lows, but PWL is still acting as support — as long as we keep closing above it, the upside path remains PDH and potentially the FVG fill above the high.
ETH swept the lows and bounced hard; if today’s data and the Alphabet print don’t surprise negatively, the next step is breaking highs and pushing through 2,400.
Today’s volatility window is tight: Euro HICP (12:00), ADP (14:15), ISM Services (16:00), and EIA inventories (16:30), with energy headlines adding torque.
Outcome 1 (hold): BTC holds PWL + ETH holds the bounce → extension toward PDH / highs, with USDT.D failing to hold above its formation/FVG area.
Outcome 2 (break): BTC loses PWL + ETH fails to reclaim highs → risk-off pressure returns, especially if USDT.D closes higher and holds.
👋 Goodbye
That’s the playbook for today. Respect the event timestamps, let USDT.D be the risk filter, and don’t overtrade the noise around earnings.