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Morning from Therwil — today is a central-bank volatility day: BOE decision + vote split, then ECB decision + presser, and the US follows with Jobless Claims + JOLTS. Plus: Amazon earnings after the close (earnings call at 23:00 Zurich) — that can reset index futures and risk tone into tomorrow.
Crypto is still in forced-deleveraging mode (basket RSI deeply oversold), while USDT dominance keeps grinding higher, acting like the macro risk filter inside crypto.
Play it clean: let the events resolve first, then trade the levels.
Highlights
Today
🇬🇧 13:00 — BOE rate decision + MPR + vote split: major GBP/rates impulse.
🇪🇺 14:15 / 14:45 — ECB decision + press conference: tone/guidance risk for EU rates & risk assets.
🇺🇸 14:30 Jobless Claims + 16:00 JOLTS: labor data into a fragile risk tape.
🟦 AMZN earnings after the close: call at 23:00 Zurich.
🪙 BTC near ~71k / ETH ~2.1k area with heavy liquidations: downside pressure remains dominant.
This Week
🧠 AI-led tech de-rating spreading from software into semis + “AI infra”: rotation risk stays high.
🌍 US–Iran nuclear talks Friday in Oman: geopolitics risk can reprice energy/risk sentiment quickly.
🪙 Stablecoin focus: USDT reports record user growth + reserves; USDT.D keeps acting as a stress gauge.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer
🌐 Macro
Safe Havens & Rates
📉 Technical
Global indices
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index (alternative.me)
Today: 12 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-05)
Yesterday: 14 — Extreme Fear (2026-02-04)
7D average: 15.3
Δ vs yesterday: -2.0 | Δ vs 7D avg: -3.3
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short (1D)
BTCUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.89 — 2026-02-05
Yesterday: 2.85 — change vs yesterday: +0.04
7D average: 2.73
Date | Ratio
2026-01-29 | 2.04
2026-01-30 | 3.28
2026-01-31 | 2.52
2026-02-01 | 2.74
2026-02-02 | 2.57
2026-02-03 | 2.30
2026-02-04 | 2.85
2026-02-05 | 2.89
ETHUSDT — Binance global long/short (1D)
Today: 2.96 — 2026-02-05
Yesterday: 2.82 — change vs yesterday: +0.14
7D average: 2.92
Date | Ratio
2026-01-29 | 2.08
2026-01-30 | 3.28
2026-01-31 | 3.36
2026-02-01 | 2.77
2026-02-02 | 2.70
2026-02-03 | 2.58
2026-02-04 | 2.82
2026-02-05 | 2.96
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | % 1D | % 7D | Quick read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX (S&P 500 volatility) | 18.64 | +3.56% | +14.01% | Moderate volatility; relatively normal backdrop. |
USDT Dominance (CMC) | 7.66% | N/D | N/D | Moderate-high USDT dominance: more defensive, partial bias toward liquidity. |
Global crypto RSI (Top 50 by market cap, excluding stables)
Average basket RSI: 20.9
🔗 On-chain
On-Chain, CEX & Derivatives Flows
Sub-block | Quick read |
|---|---|
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH | -34.56M total · Net outflows (leaving CEX) → more HODL / risk-on skew. |
DEX Global Activity (DeFiLlama) | +22.36% vs 30D average |
CEX Spot Volume (CoinGecko) | Spot turnover: 2.16% of total mcap |
Derivatives Activity (Global CG) | Derivatives turnover: 2.69x |
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance) | Funding near neutral |
Numeric detail
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Total 24h volume: 14.22B USD · 30D daily average: 11.62B USD · % vs 30D: +22.36%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
24h spot volume (top CEX, sum of 10): 53.40B USD
Total market cap (CG): 2.47T USD · Spot turnover: 2.16%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
Total OI: 101.18B USD · 24h derivatives volume (top 10): 272.46B USD
Derivatives turnover: 2.69x (vol_24h / OI) · Derivs/Spot vol ratio: 5.10x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0092% per period · ETH funding: 0.0055% per period
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Current gas: 0.19 GWEI · Very low gas: low activity / low congestion.
📊 Top Movers
🔍 Market Lens
BTC (BTCUSDT): There is no clear sign of finding ground and the price still looks like free fall; a relief zone could show up around 67k, but a move to liquidate the high amount of shorts is possible — it just looks difficult.
ETH: Free fall continues and we don’t see the ground; there’s nothing to stop price until around 1,900 and there’s a huge FVG to fill — if price falls again and breaks the lows, that’s the high-risk path.
USDT.D: It’s rocketing and now on levels not seen since BTC was ~29k; a round-number magnet around 8 is in focus, and 8.1 has an OB that marked the end of the last bear market on USDT.D — but price action shows strength with no rejection signs yet.
🔮 2-Scenario Forecast
Bull case: If BTC can slow the free fall and base into a relief bounce (with 67k acting as the nearby “must-hold” relief area) while ETH avoids breaking lows and holds above the 1,900 downside magnet, the move can turn into a squeeze — but only if USDT.D starts rejecting/failing near the 8 / 8.1 area instead of pressing higher.
Bear case: If BTC keeps sliding and accepts below the relief zone toward/through 67k while ETH breaks again and opens the path toward ~1,900 and the large FVG fill, downside pressure stays dominant — confirmed if USDT.D continues higher (no rejection) and pushes deeper into that 8 / 8.1 zone.
🗓️ Key Economic Events
Key economic events today — Thu, 5 Feb 2026 (Zurich time, CET)
⭐ Highest-impact market movers (today)
🇬🇧 13:00 — BOE rate decision + Monetary Policy Report + vote split
🇪🇺 14:15 — ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Monetary Policy Statement
🇪🇺 14:45 — ECB Press Conference (tone / guidance risk)
🇺🇸 14:30 — Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 16:00 — JOLTS Job Openings
Economic data & central bank speakers (chronological)
Overnight / Asia
🇺🇸 00:30 — FOMC member Cook speaks
🇦🇺 01:30 — Goods Trade Balance
🇯🇵 04:35 — Japan 30Y Bond Auction
Europe morning
🇩🇪 08:00 — German Factory Orders m/m
🇫🇷 08:45 — French Industrial Production m/m
🇮🇹 10:00 — Italian Retail Sales m/m
🇬🇧 10:30 — Construction PMI
🇪🇺 11:00 — Eurozone Retail Sales m/m
UK + ECB block
🇬🇧 13:00 — BOE Monetary Policy Report / Summary / Rate / Votes
🇬🇧 13:30 — BOE Gov Bailey speaks
🇪🇺 14:15 — ECB Main Refinancing Rate + Statement
🇪🇺 14:45 — ECB press conference
US afternoon
🇺🇸 14:30 — Initial Jobless Claims
🇺🇸 16:00 — JOLTS Job Openings
🇺🇸 16:30 — Natural Gas Storage
🇺🇸 16:50 — FOMC member Bostic speaks
🇨🇦 18:25 — BoC Gov Macklem speaks
🇦🇺 23:30 — RBA Gov Bullock speaks
🏦 Bond auctions (today)
🇯🇵 04:35 — Japan 30Y auction
🇫🇷 (Tentative) — France 10Y auction
🇪🇸 (Tentative) — Spain 10Y auction
🇺🇸 Treasury issuance pipeline: 13-Week Bill tentative schedule — announcement today (Thu Feb 5, 2026), auction Mon Feb 9, settlement Thu Feb 12.
🧾 Earnings (largest / most market-moving)
🇺🇸 AMZN (Megacap) — Amazon earnings scheduled today (Feb 5, 2026).
Earnings call starts: 23:00 Zurich (CET)
🧷 Futures & options expiration watch
No “major” monthly/quarterly index expiration today.
Next big one: Fri, 20 Feb 2026 = monthly equity options expiration (3rd Friday).
🌍 Macro & Politics
Headline: U.S. and Iran agree to hold nuclear talks Friday in Oman (first formal negotiations since last May).
Why it matters: Keeps a live geopolitical risk premium, especially if talks wobble or military posturing escalates.
Market angle: Watch energy/risk sensitivity into central bank day — geopolitics can add “extra beta” to moves.
🏦 Economy & Central Banks
Headline: BOE decision + Monetary Policy Report + vote split at 13:00; Bailey speaks at 13:30.
Why it matters: Vote split + guidance can reprice the front end quickly.
Market angle: Expect sharp GBP/rates reaction; spillover into risk if the tone surprises.
Headline: ECB decision at 14:15 and press conference at 14:45.
Why it matters: Tone/guidance is often more important than the rate line itself.
Market angle: Risk can “wait” for the presser; beware false breaks before 14:45.
Headline: US labor stack: Jobless Claims (14:30) + JOLTS (16:00), plus Fed speakers (Cook/Bostic).
Why it matters: Labor conditions feed the rates path.
Market angle: If rates whip, crypto beta usually follows.
📈 Markets & Corporates
Headline: Tech slide intensifies — Nasdaq posts its worst two-day drop since April; selloff spreads from software into semis/AI infra (AMD -17%, Palantir -12%, SanDisk -16% cited).
Why it matters: Broad de-rating risk rises when “AI disruption” becomes a cross-sector narrative.
Market angle: Rotation into “real economy” corners can leave high beta behind (crypto included).
Headline: AI threatens financial/legal data “cash cow” — data providers and exchanges exposed to disruption fears after Anthropic tools (LSEG/S&P Global/FactSet/ICE/MSCI mentioned).
Why it matters: Narrative pressure can keep multiples compressing even without new fundamentals.
Market angle: Watch credit spillover (software loans/distress notes referenced) as a second-order risk.
Headline: Amazon earnings today; call at 23:00 Zurich (after US close).
Why it matters: A single megacap print can swing index futures and risk tone.
Market angle: Expect positioning/hedging into the close; post-print can gap broader risk.
🏛️ Crypto Industry
Headline: Tether reports record USDT user growth in Q4 2025 despite the market shock; reserves rose to $192.9B including 96,184 BTC, 127.5 tons of gold, and $141.6B in U.S. Treasuries.
Why it matters: Reinforces USDT’s dominance in liquidity plumbing even in drawdowns.
Market angle: If USDT continues expanding while crypto de-risks, USDT.D strength can persist as the risk-off tell.
🤖 Tech & AI
Headline: Anthropic’s new tools sharpen disruption fears — traders revalue software, data, and service models; Jensen Huang calls the selloff “illogical” (as cited).
Why it matters: Fast narrative shifts increase dispersion and volatility across tech and adjacent sectors.
Market angle: When rotations happen, they happen fast — “get in quick / get out quick” is the tone in the piece.
🪙 Crypto
Headline: BTC drops below ~$71k and ETH below ~$2,100; leveraged liquidations nearing ~$800M in 24h (as cited); MicroStrategy BTC position losses cited.
Why it matters: Liquidations can self-reinforce and extend downside beyond “fair value.”
Market angle: Treat bounces as tactical until USDT.D shows rejection — otherwise, relief rallies fade.
Closing Market Read
USDT.D is the tell: it’s rocketing with no rejection signs, and the market is now in territory not seen since BTC was ~29k — the 8 / 8.1 zone (round number + prior OB) is the next obvious magnet, but price action is still strong.
BTC still looks like free fall with no clear base; best-case relief is around 67k, but squeezes are possible even in downtrends — just don’t count on them.
ETH is the same story: no ground in sight, and the path stays open toward ~1,900 with a large FVG to fill if lows break again.
Today’s volatility stack (BOE 13:00 → ECB 14:15/14:45 → US Claims 14:30 → JOLTS 16:00) can easily decide whether this is a “relief bounce day” or “continuation day.”
Hold outcome: BTC stabilizes into the 67k relief zone and ETH holds above the downside magnet — only credible if USDT.D starts rejecting near 8 / 8.1.
Break outcome: BTC continues lower and ETH breaks again toward ~1,900 — confirmed if USDT.D keeps pushing higher with no rejection.
👋 Goodbye
That’s today’s map. Let the BOE/ECB sequence print first, keep position sizes humble, and use USDT.D as the confirmation filter before you trust any bounce.