Wednesday, 10 December 2025
Good morning — today is one of the biggest macro days of the quarter: FOMC, Bank of Canada, Lagarde speaks, major bond auctions, and after-hours mega-cap earnings (Adobe, Oracle, Synopsys).
Crypto remains technically mixed, macro sentiment is improving, and geopolitics remains a live risk factor with coordinated Russia–China bomber patrols and escalating pressure on Ukraine.
Let’s break it down.
🔦 Market Risk Thermometer — 10 Dec 2025 — 05:37 (Zurich)
🌐 Macro — Safe Havens & Rates
Asset | Ticker | Last | % 1D | % 7D | Quick Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gold | GC=F | 4235.30 | +1.15% | +0.40% | Moderate safe-haven demand. |
U.S. 10Y Treasury Yield | ^TNX | 4.19% | +0.34% | +4.70% | Yields stable in a moderate range. |
📉 Technicals
Market tone is balanced into the Fed, with crypto showing stabilization after a positioning unwind.
🪙 Crypto Technicals (BTC / ETH / SOL)
BTC — Bitcoin
Asset | Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI(14) | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC | 92,529.56 | -0.16% | -0.96% | 49.5 | 91,227.59 | 91,647.43 | 96,831.45 | 104,366.66 | 924.3681 | 3.1 |
Short-term still bearish relative to long-term trend, but momentum is improving.
ETH — Ethereum
Asset | Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ETH | 3,316.98 | -0.03% | +4.03% | 57.8 | 3,111.27 | 3,115.27 | 3,315.35 | 3,438.21 | 62.5027 | 3.1 |
ETH is showing far better relative strength than BTC or SOL.
SOL — Solana
Asset | Price | % 1D | % 7D | RSI | EMA16 | EMA20 | EMA50 | EMA200 | MACD Hist | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SOL | 139.39 | +1.10% | -3.65% | 48.3 | 137.03 | 138.22 | 152.56 | 173.25 | 1.7435 | 3.1 |
SOL stabilizes but remains structurally corrective.
🌎 Global Equity Technicals
Index | Ticker | Last | %1D | %7D | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY | 683.04 | -0.09% | +1.19% | 3.0 | Stable pre-FOMC. |
QQQ | 625.05 | +0.12% | +2.65% | 3.0 | Tech showing resilience. |
Dow | 47,560.29 | -0.38% | +0.95% | 3.0 | JPM weakness leads. |
Russell 2000 | 2526.24 | +0.21% | +2.44% | 3.0 | Small caps firmer. |
DAX | 24,162.65 | +0.49% | +1.84% | 3.0 | Calm EU session. |
Nikkei | 50,528.53 | -0.25% | +0.72% | 3.0 | Slight geopolitical overhang. |
FTSE | 9642.00 | -0.03% | -0.51% | 3.0 | Mixed. |
Hang Seng | 25,325.05 | -0.43% | -2.39% | 3.0 | China pressure persists. |
TWII | 28,330.05 | +0.52% | +2.81% | 3.0 | Tech supportive. |
📢 Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index
Today: 26 (Fear)
Yesterday: 22 (Extreme Fear)
7-day avg: 23.6
Sentiment is improving but remains cautious.
Positioning — Binance Global Long/Short
Significant long clearing → healthier market balance.
BTC ratio: 1.50 (vs 2.11 yesterday)
ETH ratio: 1.16 (vs 1.86 yesterday)
Volatility & Stablecoins
Metric | Value | %1D | %7D | Quick Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
VIX | 16.93 | +1.62% | +2.05% | Normal volatility. |
USDT Dominance | 5.89% | — | — | Low–moderate → mild risk-on. |
Global Crypto RSI (Top 50 por market cap, sin stables)
Median RSI: 49.3 → neutral.
🔗 On-Chain
Detalle numérico
CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):
BTC netflow: -34.49M USD · ETH netflow: -64.59K USD · Total: -34.56M USD
DEX Global (DeFiLlama):
Volumen 24h total: 11.80B USD · Media diaria 30D: 11.78B USD · % vs 30D: +0.19%
CEX Spot (CoinGecko):
Volumen spot 24h (top CEX): 41.85B USD (10 exchanges sumados)
Market cap total (CG): 3.25T USD · Turnover spot: 1.29%
Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):
OI total: 117.46B USD · Volumen 24h derivados: 291.30B USD (10 exchanges de derivados sumados)
Turnover derivados: 2.48x (vol_24h / OI) · Ratio Deriv/Spot vol: 6.96x
Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):
BTC funding: 0.0028% por periodo · ETH funding: 0.0100% por periodo
ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):
Gas actual: 0.16 GWEI · Gas muy bajo: poca actividad / poca congestión.
🏦 Institutional
ETF Flows & Performance (as of Dec 9)
Metric | Value | Date |
|---|---|---|
BTC Spot ETF Net Inflow | $151.74M | Dec 9 |
ETH Spot ETF Net Inflow | $177.64M | Dec 9 |
Summary:
ETF flows continue to show strong institutional appetite, with ETH posting slightly higher daily inflow than BTC. Both majors remain among the strongest-performing global assets this year, reinforcing the structural demand underpinning the market into 2026.
📊 Top Movers — CMC Top 100
🏆 Top Winners (24h)
# | Symbol | Name | Price | %24h | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ZEC | Zcash | 439.7247 | +10.96% | 7.22B |
2 | FET | ASI Alliance | 0.2608 | +9.78% | 603.06M |
3 | DASH | Dash | 51.5198 | +8.25% | 644.66M |
4 | PENGU | Pudgy Penguins | 0.0124 | +8.19% | 782.27M |
5 | M | MemeCore | 1.4435 | +8.10% | 1.80B |
6 | ADA | Cardano | 0.4633 | +7.71% | 16.63B |
7 | TIA | Celestia | 0.6191 | +6.55% | 527.61M |
8 | OKB | OKB | 116.5872 | +6.55% | 2.45B |
9 | ETH | Ethereum | 3,312.52 | +6.33% | 399.81B |
10 | AVAX | Avalanche | 14.6113 | +6.28% | 6.27B |
📉 Top Losers (24h)
# | Symbol | Name | Price | %24h | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | BCH | Bitcoin Cash | 562.0755 | -2.31% | 11.22B |
2 | KAS | Kaspa | 0.0504 | -1.45% | 1.36B |
3 | PI | Pi | 0.2174 | -1.26% | 1.81B |
4 | LEO | UNUS SED LEO | 9.5515 | -0.76% | 8.81B |
5 | FLR | Flare | 0.0130 | -0.48% | 1.04B |
6 | QNT | Quant | 86.9359 | -0.42% | 1.05B |
7 | BNB | BNB | 891.6348 | -0.16% | 122.81B |
8 | USD1 | WLF USD | 0.9991 | -0.00% | 2.70B |
9 | USDe | Ethena | 0.9995 | +0.02% | 6.60B |
10 | RLUSD | Ripple USD | 0.9998 | +0.08% | 1.03B |
🌍 Macro & Geopolitical Intelligence
🇺🇦 Trump Pressures Ukraine Toward U.S.-Designed Peace Deal
Trump said Ukraine “is losing” and should accept the U.S.-drafted peace plan, putting pressure on Kyiv and widening tension with Europe. Zelensky indicated he is open to long-delayed elections but rejected territorial concessions.
Analysis: The U.S.–EU divergence adds geopolitical uncertainty and raises the risk that negotiations drag into 2026 without clarity.
🇨🇳🇷🇺 Russia–China Joint Bomber Patrol Near Japan
Chinese and Russian strategic bombers conducted an eight-hour patrol near Japan and South Korea, prompting both nations to scramble jets. The move follows earlier confrontations and comes amid rising diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.
Analysis: This joint show of force deepens the China–Russia military alignment and adds pressure to an already unstable Indo-Pacific environment.
🇺🇸 U.S. Market Recap
JPMorgan fell 4.7% after warning of higher expenses in 2026, pressuring the Dow even as broader markets held steady. Silver surged past $60/oz, while 10-year yields reached 4.185% ahead of today’s FOMC meeting.
Analysis: The divergence between strong metals and weak banks reflects uncertainty around future monetary easing and inflation trends.
🪙 Crypto & Digital Asset Intelligence
🏦 Saylor: Middle East Can Become “Switzerland of Bitcoin Banking”
Michael Saylor argued that Bitcoin-backed banking, credit, and digital money could make the Middle East “the Switzerland of the 21st century.” He also claimed U.S. regulators now broadly support Bitcoin as a strategic asset class.
Analysis: This narrative positions Bitcoin not just as a store of value, but as financial infrastructure — a theme gaining traction as regional adoption accelerates.
🏛 Bitcoin Treasury XXI Falls 20% on NYSE Debut
Twenty One Capital, led by Jack Mallers, fell nearly 20% on its first trading day despite holding 43,514 BTC. The firm aims to build Bitcoin-only brokerage, credit, and lending businesses rather than operate purely as a treasury vehicle.
Analysis: Weak early trading reflects cautious sentiment toward crypto-equities, but the long-term model gives XXI high leverage to BTC’s next macro cycle.
🏦 PNC Launches Direct Bitcoin Trading for HNW Clients
PNC now lets high-net-worth clients trade Bitcoin directly through their private banking accounts, using Coinbase’s infrastructure behind the scenes. The bank says the move prevents clients from taking assets outside the traditional banking system.
Analysis: This is a major step in U.S. banking — Bitcoin is quietly becoming a standard offering for wealth management clients.
🏢 Securitize Hires PayPal Exec Ahead of SPAC Public Listing
Securitize appointed Jerome Roche, former PayPal Head of Digital Assets Legal, as it prepares to go public via a Cantor-backed SPAC valued at $1.25B. The company plans to tokenize its own equity once listed.
Analysis: Hiring high-level regulatory talent signals that tokenized securities are entering a more mature and institutional phase.
📅Key Economic & Market Events
Top focus today (big picture)
🇺🇸 Fed day – markets price ~90% odds of a 25 bps cut to 3.50–3.75% at the FOMC, with dot-plot and Powell’s tone in focus. (Forex)
🇨🇦 BoC rate decision – expected to hold at 2.25% after strong jobs data; CAD has been firm into the meeting. (Reuters)
🇪🇺 Lagarde speech – ECB President speaks midday, key for EUR rates & risk. (Forex Factory)
🏦 Key bond auctions – US 17-week T-bill auction and UK 10-year gilt auction in focus. (US500)
💻 Megacap earnings after US close – Adobe (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL), Synopsys (SNPS) all report after market close (US). (Business Wire)
⚙️ Macro-theme: Gold edges higher and silver trades at fresh records ahead of Fed; AI geopolitics in the spotlight after Trump opens H200 exports to China but Beijing plans to restrict access. (Reuters)
📊 Economic data & central banks (Zurich time)
🇪🇺 Eurozone / UK
🇮🇹 10:00 – Italian Industrial Production m/m (Oct)
Source: Forex Factory calendar. (Forex Factory)
Impact: Medium – good gauge of Eurozone periphery growth; can nudge BTP/Bund spreads.
🇬🇧 ~11:00 (Tentative) – UK 10-year Gilt Auction
Time on calendar is “tentative”; UK 10y auctions typically land late morning London, ~10:00–11:00 London → ~11:00–12:00 Zurich. (MNI Website)
Impact: High for GBP rates and risk sentiment if demand is weak/strong.
🇪🇺 11:55 – ECB President Lagarde speaks
FF lists 04:55 Chicago → 11:55 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
Impact: High – markets watch how strongly she endorses the current rate-cut path vs persistent inflation risks.
🇺🇸 United States
(Forex Factory runs in America/Chicago, UTC-6; Zurich is +7h.)
🇺🇸 14:30 – Employment Cost Index q/q
07:30 Chicago → 14:30 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
Impact: High – labour-cost inflation is key for the Fed’s wage/inflation narrative.
🇺🇸 20:00 – Fed rate decision + statement + projections
13:00 Chicago → 20:00 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
What’s priced: ~88–90% odds of a 25 bps cut to 3.50–3.75%, lowest since 2022.
Focus:
New dot plot: how many cuts signalled for 2026? (marketpulse.com)
Language around labour softening vs inflation “not yet at target”.
Balance sheet / QT pace hints.
🇺🇸 20:00 – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Same time window as the Fed decision (13:00 Chicago → 20:00 Zurich). (Forex Factory)
Impact: Medium – matters for energy, CAD, NOK; overshadowed by the Fed today.
🇺🇸 20:30 – Fed Chair Powell press conference
13:30 Chicago → 20:30 Zurich. (Forex Factory)
Impact: Very High – tone (dovish vs cautious) likely matters more than the 25 bps itself.
🇺🇸 Later tonight (time tentative) – US Federal Budget Balance
Listed as “Tentative” around the Fed window. (Forex Factory)
Impact: Low–Medium intraday, but relevant for debt/deficit narrative after Moody’s downgrade earlier this year. (Reuters)
🇨🇦 Canada – Bank of Canada
🇨🇦 15:45 – BoC Rate Announcement & Statement
BoC says decision at 09:45 ET → 15:45 Zurich. (bankofcanada.ca)
Consensus: Hold at 2.25%, a three-year low, after strong jobs data stirred talk of hikes in 2026. (Reuters)
Watch:
Any pushback against market pricing of 2026 hikes.
Comments on CAD strength & oil.
🇨🇦 16:30 – BoC Press Conference (Macklem & Rogers)
Press conference around 10:30 ET → 16:30 Zurich. (bankofcanada.ca)
Impact: High for CAD crosses and Canadian rates.
🌍 Overnight into Thursday (Zurich time)
These print after midnight in Zurich, but belong to the Thursday session locally in NZ/JP/UK/AU:
🇳🇿 00:50 Thu – NZ Manufacturing Sales q/q (3:50pm Chicago → 00:50 Zurich). (Forex Factory)
🇯🇵 01:01 Thu – BSI Manufacturing Index.
🇬🇧 01:30 Thu – RICS House Price Balance.
🇦🇺 01:30 Thu – Australian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (high impact for AUD, Asia risk).
All four can move Asia-session FX & risk while Europe sleeps; worth noting if you carry positions overnight. (Forex Factory)
🇨🇳 China data
No major tier-1 China releases (CPI, PPI, PMIs, trade, TSF) on today’s calendars. (Trading Economics)
🏦 Bond auctions & funding
🇺🇸 United States Treasuries
🇺🇸 17-week T-bill auction (CMB) – today
US Treasury schedule shows a 17-week bill auction on 10 Dec 2025. (treasurydirect.gov)
Typical timeline:
Auction close around 11:30 ET (~17:30 Zurich).
Results in early US afternoon (~21:00 Zurich).
Impact: Rates micro, liquidity & funding conditions; especially relevant after the 2025 US downgrade and ongoing heavy issuance. (Reuters)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
🇬🇧 10-year Gilt Auction – today, late morning London (tentative)
10Y gilts have seen strong demand this year despite volatility in UK fiscal narratives. (Investing.com South Africa)
Impact: watch tail & bid-to-cover; weak demand can push yields up and weigh on GBP.
🇦🇷 Argentina
🇦🇷 Tender for new USD bond (“Bonar”) – 4-year, 6.50% coupon
Tender scheduled for today as part of Milei’s push back into markets. (Reuters)
Impact: more EM-specific, but a barometer for EM risk appetite and sovereign funding conditions.
💼 Earnings – today’s key reports
🔺 Megacap / large-cap tech (very important)
🇺🇸 Adobe (ADBE) – Q4 & FY2025 earnings (after US close)
Press release: after US market close (~22:00 Zurich, 13:00 PT). (Business Wire)
Earnings call: 23:00–00:00 Zurich (14:00–15:00 PT). (Adobe)
Guidance / expectations:
Company guides $6.08–6.13bn revenue, $5.35–5.40 non-GAAP EPS. (Seeking Alpha)
Street expects ~$6.1bn revenue and ~$5.39–5.40 EPS, +~9–12% YoY. (S&P Global)
Context / stock reaction (pre-earnings):
Stock is down roughly ~40% over 12 months and labelled an “AI loser” by some analysts; sentiment is fragile going into the print. (MarketWatch)
Key focus: Firefly AI monetisation, Digital Media ARR growth, FY26 outlook.
Actual results + stock reaction: Not yet released – this is a preview; you’ll get the actuals and market reaction after the call.
🇺🇸 Oracle (ORCL) – Q2 FY2026 earnings (after US close)
Results released after US close; company confirms earnings after market on Dec 10 and call at 16:00 CT (~23:00 Zurich). (Oracle Inversores)
Expectations:
Context / stock reaction pre-print:
Shares down ~8% in the past month on concerns about debt-fuelled AI build-out and OpenAI concentration risk; CDS spreads have widened. (Reuters)
Key focus: AI infrastructure backlog quality, free-cash-flow vs capex, leverage.
🇺🇸 Synopsys (SNPS) – Q4 & FY2025 earnings (after US close)
Press release: after close (~22:00 Zurich).
Earnings call: 23:00 Zurich (14:00 PT). (Synopsys)
Expectations:
Street looks for around $2.79 EPS on ~$2.25bn revenue, within company guidance. (MarketBeat)
Big focus on integration of the ANSYS acquisition and margin trajectory. (Wikipedia)
Context: Stock has been a strong AI-adjacent winner; any wobble in outlook could hit high-growth semis.
Other notable earnings today
Based mainly on US calendars & call schedules: (EarningsCall)
🇺🇸 Hello Group (MOMO) – 18:00 Zurich (12:00 ET)
🇺🇸 Chewy (CHWY) – 19:00 Zurich (13:00 ET)
🇺🇸 J. Jill (JILL) – 19:00 Zurich
🇺🇸 Casey’s General Stores (CASY) – ~19:30 Zurich (13:30 ET)
🇺🇸 Photronics (PLAB) and other mid-caps throughout the US session.
No AAPL / MSFT / NVDA / TSLA / AMZN earnings today – their cycles are in the classic Jan/Apr/Jul/Oct windows. (NerdWallet)
🛢️ Futures & options expiries
Today’s futures expiries (Investing.com Futures Expiry Calendar): (Investing.com)
🛢️ Low Sulphur Gas Oil Singapore Minute Marker (LGOmmc1) – expires today.
Impact: niche, but can affect local energy spreads/liquidity.
Options / index futures:
No major global equity index or index options OPEX cluster today.
Heads-up: the next big “quadruple witching” (index futures + options, stock options) is the third Friday of December – 19 Dec 2025. That’s your big positioning & gamma day this month.
🌐 Macro themes & geopolitical drivers
🪙 Gold & Silver vs the Fed
Gold trades around $4,215/oz, +0.2% on the day, while silver pushes above $60/oz, at fresh records, supported by tight inventories and solar/EV demand. (Reuters)
Markets price a Fed cut and are watching for Powell to validate further easing – metals are effectively a bet on lower real yields.
🇨🇦 CAD & BoC into today’s decision
CAD has hovered near an 11-week high vs USD despite weaker oil; BoC expected to hold at 2.25% while acknowledging the Fed’s easing path.
🔍All Eyes on the FOMC
Tonight’s FOMC meeting is the final major macro catalyst of 2025, and the setup is unusually asymmetric:
1. A cut is priced — but the reaction is not.
Markets assign ~90% probability to a 25 bps cut to 3.50–3.75%.
The cut itself is not the story.
The story is:
How many cuts the 2026 dot plot implies
Whether Powell validates recent easing in financial conditions
How the Fed frames the balance between labour softness and sticky service inflation
The more the Fed leans toward an easing cycle, the more liquidity expectations improve into Q1 2026.
2. Equities and crypto enter the meeting well-positioned.
U.S. indices remain remarkably stable, suggesting investors expect a dovish outcome.
Crypto has undergone a healthy long-position flush, especially BTC and ETH — reducing fragility and improving upside convexity.
ETH shows relative strength, consistent with the emerging narrative of institutional demand (ETF inflows, staking adoption).
A dovish Fed would likely support a broad risk-on impulse, with ETH and high-beta alts reacting faster than BTC.
3. Bond market tension is the sleeper variable.
10Y yields at 4.19% remain elevated given the growth/inflation backdrop.
If Powell signals:
Slower QT,
or a willingness to allow yields to drift lower,
then the rates market could trigger a powerful easing impulse across credit, equities, and crypto.
If Powell instead highlights:
Government deficits
Structural inflation
Or warns about financial conditions being “too easy”
→ yields could spike, risking short-term pressure on risk assets.
4. Liquidity remains the dominant driver for crypto.
Crypto’s long-term cycles are overwhelmingly tied to global liquidity.
Tonight’s meeting matters because it shapes:
USD liquidity conditions
Cross-asset risk appetite
Funding conditions for leveraged players
ETF flows (BTC + ETH)
A dovish Powell + easing trajectory sets the stage for increased ETF inflows and renewed capital rotation into crypto majors.
A hawkish surprise could stall momentum, but the structural setup remains stronger than Q3/Q4 2025 due to cleaner positioning.
5. Expected Market Reaction Scenarios
Scenario A — Dovish Powell (Risk-On)
Dot plot shows multiple cuts for 2026
Strong acknowledgment of labour softening
Willingness to adapt QT pace
Likely reaction:
Yields ↓
Gold ↑
Crypto ↑↑ (ETH leads, alts follow)
USD ↓
Tech and high-beta equities ↑
This is the highest-probability scenario.
Scenario B — Hawkish Powell (Risk-Off)
Pushback against premature easing
Emphasis on sticky inflation
Warning about financial conditions
Likely reaction:
Yields ↑
USD ↑
Crypto ↓ (BTC holds better than alts)
Equities ↓ led by tech
Convexity is lower, but this could still create attractive entry points.
Bottom Line
The FOMC tonight is not about the rate cut — it’s about the policy path, liquidity signals, and Powell’s tolerance for easier financial conditions.
The cleaner positioning in crypto makes it one of the most sensitive assets to a dovish surprise.
If Powell opens the door to meaningful 2026 easing, the market may treat today as the start of the Q1 risk-on window.
We’ll have full coverage of the decision, dot plot, and market reaction in tomorrow’s edition.
I