Hoy: 20 – Extreme Fear (2025-12-08)

Ayer: 20 – Extreme Fear (2025-12-07)

Media últimos 7 días: 24.0

Δ vs ayer: +0.0 | Δ vs media 7D: -4.0

RSI medio del basket: 50.8

CEX Netflows BTC+ETH (Dune):

DEX Global (DeFiLlama):

CEX Spot (CoinGecko):

Derivatives Global (CoinGecko):

Funding BTC/ETH (Binance Futures):

ETH Gas (Etherscan V2):

Japan: deeper contraction, higher yields.
Final Q3 GDP printed -2.3% annualized (vs -1.8% prelim) and roughly -0.6% QoQ vs ~-0.4% expected, confirming a meaningful soft patch in domestic demand.
At the same time, Japan’s 20Y JGB yield hit ~2.95%, the highest since 1998, underlining how far the curve has already repriced ahead of the expected BoJ hike next week.

BoJ & the “yen carry unwind” narrative.
A detailed take on the yen carry trade argues that:

China: exports stronger, domestic demand still soft.
November trade data in USD terms: exports +5.9% YoY (vs ~+3.8% expected), imports +1.9% YoY (vs ~+3.0%). Exports to non-US markets (EU, LatAm, Africa) offset a ~29% collapse in exports to the U.S. Trade surplus hit roughly $111.7B, pushing YTD surplus above $1T for the first time.
→ Macro read: supportive for EM Asia and cyclicals/commodities, but it keeps global trade imbalances and U.S.–China frictions in play.

Eurozone: Germany still crawling.
October German industrial production came in at +0.2% m/m vs +1.3% expected, following +1.3% in September, consistent with PMIs that show ongoing contraction in manufacturing.
→ Confirms a sluggish, fragile recovery in the Eurozone and supports the “lower yields in Europe vs U.S.” relative trade.

U.S. data & labor under the surface.

Brazil: A cluster of mid-tier confidence/activity/credit indicators hits around 15:30 Zurich, against a backdrop of Selic at ~15% and above-target inflation expectations. Local story, but relevant for BRL rates and EM credit spreads.

Fed (FOMC, Wednesday): Futures price a high probability of another 25 bp cut, with a “hawkish cut” narrative (ease now, push back on aggressive easing in 2026). This is the main event for global beta and crypto.

BoJ: Hike largely pre-priced, but as above, the key is whether Japanese tightening keeps global yields sticky.

RBA: Meeting runs today/tomorrow, decision Tuesday at 04:30 Zurich; consensus is “on hold” but tone could skew hawkish.

BoC, SNB, BCB: All meeting later in the week, generally expected to hold.

China–Japan military tension escalates.
Chinese J-15 fighters locked fire-control radar on Japanese F-15s twice near Okinawa in international airspace, prompting Tokyo to lodge a formal protest. Japan’s defense minister labeled it a “dangerous act”, and the incidents come as Beijing runs a pressure campaign against PM Sanae Takaichi after her comments that an attack on Taiwan could pull Japan into conflict under self-defense clauses.
→ Market read: raises the risk premium in Asia, reinforces the importance of waters south of Japan as a likely theater in any Taiwan scenario.

Trump on Ukraine & fiscal expansion.
Trump says Russia is “fine” with his proposal to end the conflict in Eastern Europe, but he’s “not sure” Zelensky supports it; he claims he’s “a little disappointed” Zelensky hasn’t read the plan yet.
Separately, his push for global fiscal expansion is flagged as another macro risk: more debt, higher yields, and potential risk-off if bond markets balk.

Musk vs the EU.
After X Corp. was fined €120M for violating online content rules, Elon Musk again called to “dissolve the EU and return power to the people”, reacting to what he framed as unfair treatment over Hungary’s migration policies.
→ Not a direct macro shock, but it highlights the regulatory risk tech platforms face in Europe and the political friction around EU digital policy.

Stock funds: Santa rally but not mania.
The average U.S. stock mutual fund/ETF is +12.6% YTD through November, with international-stock funds up 26.4% and investment-grade bond funds +7.5%. November itself was flat-to-slightly positive after a mid-month drawdown.
Drivers:

→ From a positioning standpoint, three consecutive double-digit years for U.S. stock funds (21% / 17.4% / 12.6% if it holds) means equity risk is crowded and vulnerable to any growth or yield shock.

IBM close to a ~$11B Confluent takeover.
IBM is in advanced talks to acquire Confluent (~$8B mkt cap) for around $11B, potentially its biggest deal in years as it pushes deeper into data infrastructure for AI. Confluent manages real-time data streams used in large AI models across retail, tech and financial services.
Context:

Busy tech-deal tape.
Tech remains one of the busiest M&A sectors:

Toll Brothers (homebuilder) – Q4 FY25 after the close.

Compass Minerals (materials/fertilizers) – Q4 FY25.

Phreesia (health-tech SaaS) – Q3 FY26.

U.S. Treasury auctions (today, Zurich time):

Futures & options expiries today:

→ Even without major U.S. data today, this expiry/rollover cluster can distort intraday flows, especially in European rates.

Top buyer stress:
Their supply-quantiles cost basis shows spot has broken below the 0.75 quantile, with price around $96.1k in their framework, putting >25% of BTC supply underwater. In 2022, a similar breakdown preceded extended downside.

Supply in loss rising sharply.
The share of coins held at a loss has increased quickly, which historically is associated with transition phases (distribution to new buyers or start of deeper drawdowns).

Off-chain: softer demand & fading risk appetite.

Global yields remain high or drift up because Japanese tightening anchors them higher.

Trump-style fiscal expansion fears add to the upward pressure.

WisdomTree launched the Physical Lido Staked Ether ETP (ticker: LIST) in Europe, holding only stETH and earning staking rewards via the Lido protocol, not a centralized custodian.

It lists on Xetra, SIX and Euronext (Paris & Amsterdam) and reportedly started with $50M AUM, already larger than some existing ETH ETPs (Invesco’s QETH, 21Shares TETH).

Europe’s regulatory framework explicitly accommodates physically-backed and staked-asset ETPs, making this a clean integration of DeFi yield into traditional infrastructure.

Lido context:

VanEck filed for a staked ETH ETF in October.

REXOsprey launched the first U.S. SOL ETF with native staking under an unusual structure.

Grayscale got approval to stake billions of ETH in its trusts.

BlackRock is reportedly exploring staking options for its ETHA trust.

00:50 – 🇯🇵 Q3 GDP final (already out: deeper contraction than expected).

04:00 – 🇨🇳 November trade (already out: exports beat, imports soft).

08:00 – 🇩🇪 Industrial production (Oct) (+0.2% m/m vs 1.3% expected).

15:30 – 🇧🇷 Local confidence/activity/credit cluster.

16:00 – 🇺🇸 Factory orders (rescheduled; not fresh information).

17:30 – 🇺🇸 13-week & 26-week T-bill competitive closes.

19:00 – 🇺🇸 3-year Treasury note auction.

🇺🇸 Toll Brothers (TOL) – U.S. housing & rates read-through.

🇺🇸 Compass Minerals (CMP) – fertilizers/commodities.

🇺🇸 Phreesia (PHR) – health-tech SaaS.

Euro-BTP, CHF govies, cotton, sugar futures expiries.

Eurex March-26 rate futures rollover.

New S&P/B3 Bovespa VIX futures in Brazil; TAIFEX rule changes live.